Analysis & Reports

Russia is preparing to launch Oreshnik hypersonic missiles against Ukraine, with potential targets including Kyiv and Lviv, as part of a combined strike. This warning follows recent drone attacks on Russian positions in Starobilsk, prompting a call for retaliation from President Putin. The U.S. Embassy in Kyiv has also issued alerts about possible significant airstrikes within the next 24 hours, indicating a high-risk situation for Ukraine.

Dmitri VolkovSat May 23 2026Loading...

Russian and Belarusian forces conducted nuclear exercises from May 19 to 21, 2026, involving 64,000 personnel and various missile systems. The exercises aimed to prepare nuclear forces for potential aggression, with significant participation from the Russian Northern and Pacific Fleets. Belarusian units trained on the handling of Russian nuclear munitions, indicating a shift in the strategic role of Belarus in the region.

Dmitri VolkovSat May 23 2026Loading...

The missile ship 'Tucha' of the Russian Navy was reportedly destroyed or heavily damaged in Kaspiysk on May 22, 2023, following a Ukrainian strike. This incident significantly undermines the operational security of the Caspian Flotilla, which has been considered a safe base for missile carriers. The loss of 'Tucha' raises concerns about the vulnerability of Russian naval assets to further attacks.

Dmitri VolkovFri May 22 2026Loading...

Monocrystal, a major producer of synthetic sapphire, announced its intention to file for bankruptcy in 2025 following significant damage from Ukrainian drone strikes and the impact of Western sanctions. The company, which supplied critical materials for Russian missiles and drones, has seen its workforce cut nearly in half and is facing severe financial difficulties. This collapse threatens Russia's defense-industrial supply chain for precision optical components.

Four hangars are being constructed at the Chkalovsk naval air base in Kaliningrad Oblast since late April 2026, reflecting a shift in Russian military strategy towards enhancing aircraft protection. This move is in response to increased threats from Ukrainian strikes, indicating a recognition of vulnerabilities in Russian aviation infrastructure. The hangars aim to provide passive defense against drone attacks and other threats, showcasing a change in resource allocation within the Russian Armed Forces.

Dmitri VolkovFri May 22 2026Loading...

Turkey is procuring 100 naval drones for the Turkish Navy, aimed at enhancing its maritime capabilities in the Black Sea. This decision follows lessons learned from Ukraine's naval drone operations against Russia. The drones, produced by various Turkish defense teams, are intended for swarm attacks and asymmetric missions, complicating Russian naval movements in the region.

Alexandra ReevesThu May 21 2026Loading...

The Russian Strategic Rocket Forces successfully launched the RS-28 Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile from Dombarovsky on May 12, 2026. This marks the second successful test of the missile, which is intended to replace the aging RS-20V Voevoda. The missile is reported to have a range exceeding 35,000 kilometers and can carry multiple nuclear warheads. The test follows a series of failures and is a critical step in Russia's nuclear modernization efforts.

The new two-seat version of the Su-57 fighter jet, potentially named T-50D, has been unveiled and is currently undergoing ground taxi tests at Zhukovsky. This variant is intended for pilot training and may also serve combat roles, integrating with unmanned aerial vehicles for enhanced operational efficiency. The design features a tandem cockpit, improving visibility for the rear seat pilot.

The Russian Armed Forces conducted large-scale nuclear exercises from May 19 to 21, involving over 64,000 troops and 7,800 pieces of military equipment in Belarus and Russia. The exercises focused on the preparation and use of nuclear forces under conditions of aggression threat, including the launch of ballistic and cruise missiles. This operation serves as a significant political-military signal amid escalating tensions with NATO and Ukraine.

The United Aircraft Corporation confirmed the maiden flight of the Su-57 prototype in a two-seat configuration on May 19, 2026, in Russia. This aircraft combines combat capabilities with training functions and is designed for managing operations involving both crewed and uncrewed aircraft. The two-seater is primarily aimed at export markets, particularly India, as Russia seeks to revitalize interest in its advanced fighter technology.

Russian forces maintain control over Pokrovsk and Mirnograd, employing drones and artillery to suppress Ukrainian positions and logistics. A 25-kilometer kill zone has been established, complicating Ukrainian operations. The report highlights the effective coordination of Russian infantry, drones, and artillery, indicating a shift in tactics. Logistical challenges are significant for both sides, particularly affecting Ukrainian capabilities.

Dmitri VolkovTue May 19 2026Loading...

Poland deployed four micro reconnaissance satellites on May 6, 2023, as part of its self-developed space satellite network for geospatial imaging. The satellites, developed by Iceye's Polish branch, enhance Poland's ISR capabilities and have demonstrated strong anti-jamming features. The Polish Ministry of Defense announced the successful deployment, which is part of a contract valued at approximately $235 million. Images of Russian military facilities were also released.

Belarus and Russia are conducting nuclear weapons operational use exercises in Belarus, aimed at enhancing the readiness of Belarusian armed forces. The exercises involve Belarusian missile forces and air forces, focusing on the transportation of nuclear munitions from Russia. The Belarusian Defense Ministry stated that these exercises are part of a planned training framework and do not pose a threat to regional security.

Ukrainian drones conducted a large-scale attack on Russian territory, with 556 drones intercepted and destroyed by Russian air defenses over a nine-hour period. The strikes targeted critical infrastructure around Moscow, resulting in at least four fatalities and twelve injuries. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy described the attacks as a justified response to recent Russian strikes on Ukrainian cities.

Dmitri VolkovSun May 17 2026Loading...

A two-seat variant of Russia's Su-57 Felon fighter conducted ground taxi trials, confirmed by military aviation blogger Ilya Tumanov on May 16, 2023. The aircraft features an elongated fuselage for a second cockpit and is primarily intended for export. Algeria has become the first confirmed foreign operator of the Su-57, while Russia has faced losses of the aircraft due to drone strikes.

Ukrainian drone forces struck a Russian Svetlyak-class patrol boat in the Caspian Sea on May 17, 2026. The attack, executed by a Fire Point FP-1 drone, occurred in the port area of Kaspiisk, Dagestan, highlighting Ukraine's extended operational reach. This incident marks the third drone strike on Russian naval vessels in recent months, indicating a developing pattern of Ukrainian military operations in the region.

Ukraine launched over 130 drones in a major strike on Moscow overnight into May 17, targeting industrial facilities and causing significant disruptions, including the suspension of operations at all four major airports. The attack resulted in injuries to 12 individuals and fires at key industrial sites, reflecting Ukraine's strategic focus on degrading Russian military and industrial capabilities. This operation follows a week of intense Russian aerial bombardment against Ukraine.

Russia is developing specialized 5.45mm multi-warhead ammunition for AK-12 and AK-74 rifles to effectively target FPV drones. This initiative aims to enhance the capabilities of infantry against drone threats, contrasting with Western efforts focused on automated fire control systems. The Russian solution is viewed as more practical and cost-effective for widespread military use.

The Russian Navy has commenced the construction of the 9th Project 22350 frigate, named after Admiral Felix Gromov, at the Northern Shipyard in Saint Petersburg on May 14, 2023. This frigate is designed for long-range missions and is equipped with advanced weaponry, including Kalibr cruise missiles and Zircon hypersonic missiles. The Russian Navy emphasizes the urgent need for such vessels to enhance its operational capabilities.

On October 15, Russian forces struck Ukrainian military positions in Donetsk Oblast and destroyed an ammunition depot in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. During the same timeframe, Russian air defense systems intercepted over 50 Ukrainian drones in Belgorod, Bryansk, and Kaluga Oblasts. Concurrently, Ukrainian forces targeted key Russian assets, including oil refineries and ammunition depots.