Analysis & Reports

The Russian defense industry is experiencing significant mobilization dynamics amid ongoing sanctions, with military spending projected to reach 13.5 trillion rubles by 2025. Despite employing 3.8 million workers, the sector faces structural challenges, including a decline in dual-use imports and financial difficulties. Plans for 2026 include the introduction of advanced systems like the Su-75 fighter and Sarmat ICBM, but the industry's long-term sustainability is in question due to component shortages and corruption issues.

Dmitri VolkovFri Feb 06 2026Loading...

On February 5, a deputy chairman of the Russian Federation Council stated that the termination of the New START treaty will not lead to a new arms race or nuclear war. He emphasized that the treaty has been ineffective in recent years and that both Russia and the U.S. will not exceed its limits for the foreseeable future, indicating a period of increasing uncertainty in global strategic nuclear forces.

The New START treaty between the U.S. and Russia expired, eliminating limits on their nuclear arsenals. President Trump called for a new nuclear agreement that includes China, which has declined to participate. Russia expressed regret over the treaty's end and stated it would maintain a responsible approach to nuclear stability. Meanwhile, the U.S. and Russia agreed to reestablish high-level military dialogue after a two-year suspension.

The New START treaty between the U.S. and Russia expired, eliminating limits on their nuclear arsenals. President Trump called for a new nuclear agreement that includes China, which has declined to participate. Russia expressed regret over the treaty's end and stated it would maintain a responsible approach to nuclear stability. Meanwhile, the U.S. and Russia agreed to reestablish high-level military dialogue after a two-year suspension.

Russia's government has introduced tax incentives for domestic companies to purchase unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) as of January 1, 2023. This initiative aims to bolster the UAV sector amid ongoing military operations in Ukraine, where drones account for a significant portion of casualties. Despite these efforts, Russia remains dependent on foreign technology, particularly from China and Iran, indicating challenges in achieving technological autonomy.

Russia's Foreign Ministry declared that it no longer feels bound by the New START treaty obligations following the lack of a formal U.S. response to President Putin's proposal for voluntary compliance. The ministry emphasized readiness to take military-technical countermeasures to address potential threats to national security. The New START treaty, signed in 2010, is set to expire in 2026.

Russia announced $15 billion in arms exports for 2025, focusing on military-technical cooperation with over 30 countries, particularly in Africa. President Putin stated that these contracts have been fulfilled despite Western sanctions. The revenue is intended to modernize defense enterprises and expand production capacity, although the long-term sustainability of these export levels is uncertain due to increased domestic military demand and ongoing sanctions.

Russia anticipates a significant increase in military technology exports, with orders expected to exceed 150 billion USD by 2025. President Putin announced that despite Western pressure, military contracts are being fulfilled with over 30 countries. Russia continues to strengthen military cooperation with key partners, including India, and is exploring new opportunities in Africa.

Belarus has been integrated into Russia's military posture, serving as a forward operating base against Ukraine and NATO. This integration allows Russia to utilize Belarusian territory for military operations, increasing pressure on NATO and Ukraine. The presence of Russian forces in Belarus poses a persistent threat to neighboring countries, fundamentally altering the security landscape along NATO's eastern flank.

Russia confirmed arms exports exceeding $15 billion to over 30 countries in 2025, as stated by President Putin. The country continues to develop military-technical cooperation despite increased pressure from Western nations. A substantial portfolio of new export orders was secured, and future export volumes are expected to rise under a new plan for 2026. Russia is also involved in over 340 joint military-technical projects with 14 countries, with a notable shift towards aviation-related systems in its export contracts.

President Putin announced that Russia plans to significantly increase military exports by 2026, prioritizing military-technical cooperation with CSTO and CIS countries. Last year, Russia exported military products to over 30 countries, earning over $15 billion. Despite Western pressure, African nations expressed willingness to collaborate with Russia in military technology.

Azerbaijan's Foreign Minister Bayramov stated that Azerbaijan's airspace will not be used for military operations against Iran during a phone call with Iranian Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian on the night of the 30th. This statement was confirmed by the Azerbaijani ambassador to Iran.

Russia rejected Ukraine's request for a ceasefire of at least 60 days, as stated by Foreign Minister Lavrov in Moscow on January 29, 2023. Lavrov emphasized that previous ceasefires allowed Ukraine to replenish its military capabilities. He also noted that he has not seen the peace plan documents claimed by Ukraine and described the conflict as part of a larger confrontation with the West, with Ukraine being used as a pawn against Russia.

Syrian Transitional Government President Ahmad Sharrah visited Moscow on January 28, 2023, to reaffirm bilateral relations with Russia. Discussions focused on military cooperation and the geopolitical significance of Russian military bases in Syria. Sharrah acknowledged Russia's crucial role in stabilizing the region, despite previous conflicts between Syria and Russia. Experts suggest that the current military bases in Syria remain secure.

Belarus is enhancing its strategic deterrence capabilities, including tactical nuclear weapons and the Iskander missile system, in response to perceived threats from Western countries. On January 28, the Secretary of State of the Security Council reported to President Lukashenko about military inspections and the increasing militarization of neighboring European nations. Belarus is closely monitoring these developments and plans to take appropriate measures.

China has modernized its military capabilities significantly through arms sales and technology transfers from Russia since the 1990s. This relationship has evolved into a competitive dynamic, with China now challenging Russia in military exports. As a result, Russia is reassessing its future arms sales to China, recognizing the strategic implications of strengthening a potential peer competitor.

Russia's Ministry of Defense has begun large-scale recruitment for drone units since mid-January 2023, focusing on candidates with technical skills. The new units are transitioning to a more structured organization, prioritizing young recruits, including university students. Contract terms restrict service to drone units and include incentives for achieving specific military objectives.

The Russian Navy is set to decommission the Admiral Kuznetsov aircraft carrier, with plans for scrapping or sale by 2026 due to extensive issues and economic unviability of repairs. Corruption has exacerbated the situation, leading to significant cost overruns. The Russian military is shifting away from traditional aircraft carriers, marking a significant change in naval strategy.

The Russian Army is currently facing significant structural challenges that hinder its operational effectiveness. The analysis highlights that the primary issue is not the use of drones but rather the overall organization and capabilities of the military. Reform in military structure is suggested to address these challenges and improve readiness for future conflicts.

Western Europe is preparing for war with Russia, as indicated by statements from Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. This preparation suggests a serious escalation in military tensions between the two regions. The report highlights the urgency of the situation, although specific troop numbers and equipment details are not provided.