Analysis & Reports

China is building the Type 004 Supercarrier, projected to carry over 100 aircraft, as it nears completion of sea trials in February 2026. The People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) is rapidly expanding its naval capabilities, with the Type 003 Fujian already in trials and the Shandong deployed near Taiwan. This development poses a significant challenge to U.S. naval dominance in the Pacific.

SR-71 pilot David Peters recounted a flight from Kadena Air Base in Okinawa to Beale AFB in California, departing at 10:00 AM and landing 17.5 hours earlier due to the aircraft's speed. The flight included refueling stops and showcased the Blackbird's capabilities, allowing the pilots to arrive in time for happy hour despite the significant distance covered.

The J-15 "Flying Shark" serves as a critical component of the People’s Liberation Army Navy's fleet air defense capabilities. Operating from ski-jump carriers in China, it faces limitations in payload and fuel capacity. Recent upgrades have improved its capabilities, but it remains vulnerable in contested airspace and is not designed for deep strike missions. The J-15 is a transitional platform, enabling China to develop its carrier aviation skills and prepare for future advancements in naval air power.

China's H-20 stealth bomber program remains stalled, with no significant progress since its announcement in 2016. In contrast, the Chengdu J-36 fighter program is advancing rapidly, with prototypes expected by late 2025. U.S. intelligence indicates that the H-20's capabilities are inferior to those of the B-21 Raider, and it is not expected to be operational until the 2030s. Recent leaks about the program may serve as a political smokescreen following leadership changes in the Chinese military.

The Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC) showcased the Wing-Loong X combat drone at the Singapore Airshow from February 3-7, 2024, highlighting its potential for international sales. Experts suggest that the drone's competitive pricing and capabilities could attract countries looking to enhance their maritime surveillance and strike capabilities. Existing operators of Chinese drones, such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE, may consider the WL-X for their naval operations.

General Stephen Davis assessed that China's H-20 stealth bomber program is not yet a credible threat, citing significant engineering challenges. The H-20 is intended to enhance China's long-range strike capabilities, targeting locations such as Guam and Hawaii. However, the U.S. maintains a technological advantage with its existing bombers, the B-2 and the upcoming B-21.

Taiwan plans to build ten 2,500-ton light frigates by 2040 as part of a fleet renewal program, investing $7.8 billion. However, the program faces significant delays, with prototypes already two years behind schedule. The aging frigate force, with most vessels over 40 years old, raises concerns about Taiwan's naval capabilities against a potential Chinese blockade. The new frigates may not align with the necessary asymmetric defense strategy, as they are designed for traditional naval engagements rather than the likely conflict scenarios with China.

Marcus ChenThu Feb 12 2026Loading...

On February 7, 2025, the J-15T carrier-based aircraft was equipped with YJ-15 supersonic anti-ship missiles, significantly enhancing the People's Liberation Army Navy's anti-ship capabilities. The YJ-15 has an effective range of 1200-1800 kilometers, allowing for strikes from safer distances. This development marks a strategic improvement in the naval combat capabilities of the PLA, enabling more flexible operations in the East China Sea and beyond.

Li MinghuiThu Feb 12 2026Loading...

The Southern Theater Command Navy conducted a naval training exercise in the South China Sea, focusing on combat readiness and response to enemy actions. The Copper Bell ship engaged in air defense and retaliated against enemy targets. The exercise included various scenarios, testing the crew's operational capabilities, and resulted in one injury due to enemy fire.

On February 11, high-ranking military officials from the U.S., Japan, Australia, and the Philippines convened in Tokyo for the Land Forces Dialogue, emphasizing enhanced military cooperation. This meeting reflects a significant shift in the Japan-U.S. alliance, with the Japanese Ground Self-Defense Force taking a more prominent role in regional security alongside its allies. The dialogue underscores the importance of coordinated efforts to address security challenges posed by China.

Tanaka TakashiThu Feb 12 2026Loading...

China is significantly expanding its nuclear arsenal, with projections to exceed 1000 warheads by 2030, supported by new plutonium production capabilities from CHF-600 fast reactors on Changbiao Island. This expansion is underpinned by Russian assistance in providing high enriched uranium. The increase in warheads from over 200 in 2020 to over 600 currently indicates a rapid growth in China's nuclear capabilities, reflecting a strategic shift in its military posture.

Li MinghuiThu Feb 12 2026Loading...

The submarine crew of the Eastern Theater Command Navy returned from a long-range mission, engaging in logistics to maintain combat readiness. As the Spring Festival approaches, they prepare for future operations while managing personal communications with families. The unit emphasizes teamwork and the challenges of operating in deep-sea environments.

Japan provided five TPS-P80ME coastal surveillance radars to the Philippines during a ceremony in Manila on February 11. The radars, capable of detecting ships and low-flying aircraft, are set to be deployed to naval monitoring bases in the Philippines. This provision marks a significant step in Japan's defense cooperation with the Philippines, reflecting a shift towards a more active role in regional security.

Tanaka TakashiThu Feb 12 2026Loading...

The Naval Escort Fleet of the Southern Theater Command is conducting comprehensive training assessments focused on maritime combat, logistical support, and inspections. This training aims to evaluate the operational readiness and decision-making capabilities of commanders and personnel involved. The exercises are part of ongoing military preparations.

The U.S. Marine Corps and U.S. Navy, alongside the Japan Self-Defense Forces, commenced the 'Iron Fist' joint military exercise in Kyushu, Okinawa, and Yamaguchi Prefecture, aimed at enhancing island defense capabilities. The exercise, involving approximately 800 U.S. Marines and 2100 U.S. Navy personnel, will last until March 9, 2023, and includes training in amphibious operations and joint command. Local groups in Okinawa have voiced their opposition to the exercise.

The U.S. Air Force is evaluating its need for a larger fleet of stealth aircraft, asserting that at least 500 are necessary to deter China and prevent a swift takeover of Taiwan. Current plans for 185 F-47s and 100 B-21s are considered insufficient. The report emphasizes the importance of penetrating Chinese airspace to target military assets located inland, as stand-off weapons cannot effectively reach these targets.

Thermobaric weapons have been utilized by the U.S., Russia, and Israel in various conflicts, including recent reports of their use in Gaza. These weapons, known for their devastating effects, have evolved from World War II designs to modern munitions like the GBU-43/B MOAB. The U.S. military has employed them in significant battles, while allegations of their use against civilian populations raise concerns about potential war crimes.

The U.S. Navy faces evolving threats in naval combat, particularly in the South China Sea and Yemen, where they encounter advanced weaponry and tactics from adversaries like China. Experts warn that the distinction between combat and non-combat missions is increasingly unclear, with potential future conflicts resembling those of World War II. The Navy must adapt to new technologies and strategies as it prepares for possible peer-on-peer engagements.

China is developing the JH-XX stealth bomber, aimed at penetrating air defenses to strike high-value targets in Guam and Japan. Recent intelligence from February 2026 indicates that the aircraft features a tailless, three-engine design, although it is still in the testing phase and not yet operational. The People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) is pursuing this capability to enhance its regional strike potential.

The SR-71 Blackbird, operated by the U.S. Air Force, flew from Kadena Air Base in Japan to Beale AFB in California, landing 17.5 hours before its scheduled departure. This high-speed aircraft, capable of exceeding Mach 3, was never shot down and was designed for rapid intelligence gathering during the Cold War. Its operational costs and the rise of satellite technology ultimately led to its retirement.