Analysis & Reports

Russia claims to have doubled its combat aircraft production, delivering 30 new tactical aircraft to its Aerospace Forces in 2025. However, independent analysis indicates that production targets were not met, with only half of the expected 57 aircraft delivered. The report highlights significant losses of 65 aircraft in the ongoing conflict, resulting in a net reduction of 35 aircraft for the year. Despite claims of industrial resilience, the actual output does not keep pace with attrition rates.

STM unveiled the ALPAGU-B, a new AI-guided kamikaze drone, at SAHA 2026. This fixed-wing loitering munition boasts a 40-kilometer range and advanced target tracking capabilities. It enhances tactical strike missions with greater range and explosive payload compared to its predecessor, the original ALPAGU.

Turkey unveiled its first domestically built mini-submarine at SAHA Expo 2026, completing its first dive tests off Karamürsel on April 14, 2026. The project, supported by the Turkish Presidency of Defense Industries, marks a significant milestone in Turkey's defense capabilities, with over 80% of the submarine's components sourced domestically. The Multi-Purpose Mini Submarine is part of a broader initiative to enhance Turkey's underwater operational capabilities.

The U.S. Navy exercised a contract option worth nearly $37 million with Huntington Ingalls Industries for the production of Lionfish underwater drones, ensuring delivery through May 2027. Most of the work will take place in Pocasset, Massachusetts, where the company has a dedicated facility for uncrewed systems. The Lionfish is intended for mine countermeasures and supports various naval operations, reflecting the Navy's push towards uncrewed systems in contested environments.

Slovenia unveiled the MANGART 25 AD short-range air defense turret integrated on a Patria 8×8 vehicle during a ceremony marking the 35th anniversary of the Slovenian Armed Forces Air Defence Regiment. The turret, equipped with a Northrop Grumman M242 Bushmaster autocannon, is designed for countering drones and low-flying threats, featuring advanced sensors and network capabilities for integrated operations.

RBS 58 anti-tank missile units are being delivered to the Swedish military. The procurement follows a design approach made to France five years ago. This delivery marks a significant enhancement of Sweden's military capabilities.

Turkey unveiled the Yıldırımhan long-range ballistic missile during the SAHA Expo 2026 in Istanbul. The missile, capable of hypersonic-speed flight, can carry a 3-ton warhead to a range of 6,000 kilometers. This marks Turkey's first liquid-fueled rocket missile system, with successful laboratory testing completed and field testing planned. The development of the missile's propellant technology represents a significant achievement for Turkey's defense industry.

Saab launched the Bolide 2 missile for the RBS 70 short-range air defense missile system. The new missile features a larger warhead and improved terminal flight performance, with deliveries starting in 2027. It retains the unjammable guidance method of previous generations and can be fired from both the latest RBS 70 NG and prior models.

Pakistan unveiled the Fatah-3 supersonic cruise missile, enhancing its precision strike capabilities and providing a counter to India's BrahMos missile. The Fatah-3, a localized version of China's HD-1, can reach speeds of Mach 3 to 4 and has a range of 290 to 450 kilometers. This missile is designed for both land-attack and anti-ship roles, significantly altering the regional military balance.

The U.S. Army installed a Proof Gun System at Yuma Test Center to enhance artillery round testing capabilities. This system allows for the quick swapping of gun tubes without the need for a complete howitzer, streamlining the testing process. Designed for extreme conditions, it is expected to last 30 to 50 years, with a second unit scheduled to arrive in May.

Helsing conducted the first launch of its HX-2 strike drone from a coastal vessel off Plymouth, UK. This trial marks a significant expansion of the drone's operational capabilities, allowing it to engage targets from maritime environments. The HX-2 is designed for mass production and can operate effectively in contested electronic warfare environments, addressing vulnerabilities seen in previous drone operations.

Saab UK completed the production of its 100th Giraffe 1X radar at its Fareham facility and opened a new testing facility. This milestone reflects the company's capability in radar manufacturing and supports the UK's defense electronics production. The Giraffe 1X radar is designed for short to medium range air surveillance, enhancing military readiness amid increased procurement by NATO members due to evolving threats.

The U.S. Army is evaluating the DURUS tactical aerostat at Camp Atterbury for counter-drone defense. This system provides a 360-degree view of the battlespace and can detect drones before they pose a threat. DURUS achieved full mission capability during testing and is designed to integrate with existing command systems. Silicis Technologies is also developing a variant that can launch drone swarms, enhancing its operational capabilities.

Iranian forces attacked three U.S. Navy guided-missile destroyers in the Strait of Hormuz on May 7, prompting U.S. forces to retaliate by targeting Iranian military facilities. U.S. Central Command confirmed that no U.S. assets were struck, despite Iranian claims of significant damage. The incident has escalated tensions and raised questions about the ongoing ceasefire between the two nations.

Hezbollah's drone technology, particularly cellular network-controlled drones, poses a significant and evolving threat to Israel. These drones can be operated remotely from great distances, making interception challenging. The technology allows for precise reconnaissance and potential strikes within Israeli territory, indicating a shift in the nature of drone warfare. Experts warn that this capability could enable non-state actors to conduct operations with precision previously reserved for state militaries.

Raytheon BBN Technologies is developing AI genomic threat detection methods under a contract with the U.S. Army, reported on May 5, 2023. The FELIX project aims to identify genetic manipulation in biological systems, utilizing advanced AI models and Deep Packet Inspection technology. This technology has dual-use potential, enabling the creation of undetectable biological weapons, while also providing rapid detection capabilities for military applications.

U.S. military operations against Iran have faced significant challenges, particularly in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian forces have effectively utilized drones and missiles, resulting in substantial damage to U.S. assets. The U.S. Navy is currently reassessing its strategies and equipment in response to these threats, highlighting the need for new weapon systems and increased naval capabilities.

Northrop Grumman conducted three successful static tests of solid rocket motors in Utah over the past five months, showcasing advancements in performance and affordability. The company introduced a new propellant that enhances energy efficiency and reduces costs, while also investing over $1 billion to expand production capacity. These developments are aimed at supporting critical defense and deep-space missions.

Saab launched the HEAT 758 anti-tank ammunition round for the Carl-Gustaf weapon during a live demonstration in Karlskoga, Sweden, in May. This new round is designed to defeat heavily armored vehicles equipped with Explosive Reactive Armour (ERA) and features a tandem warhead. Production is currently underway for an undisclosed customer.

HAVELSAN signed a contract amendment for the Version 3 configuration of the BARKAN Unmanned Ground Vehicle (UGV) at SAHA Expo 2026. The BARKAN UGV, first inducted into the Turkish Armed Forces in 2023, has evolved based on operational feedback and can be configured for various missions. It features a modular architecture, AI-supported perception, and is designed to operate in conjunction with other systems.