Analysis & Reports

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg urged member countries on July 6, 2023, in Ankara to fulfill their commitment to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035. He called for clear and credible plans from member states to achieve this target, highlighting the need to invest in key areas such as missile and interception systems. Internal disagreements on how to reach this goal persist among NATO members.

Russia has been unable to replace the MiG-31 for over 30 years, with five successor projects failing before entering service. The MiG-31BM and MiG-31K continue to operate, launching long-range missiles, while the MiG-41 remains unprototyped. The Russian Air Force relies solely on the MiG-31, which is now the last interceptor of its kind in service.

China is expanding its navy and aims to have nine aircraft carriers by the mid-2030s. The People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) faces challenges in developing operational capacity, including training pilots and establishing logistics. While China has significant shipbuilding capabilities, achieving effective carrier operations comparable to the U.S. Navy will require extensive institutional knowledge and experience.

The U.S. Army is reworking its weapons portfolios and realigning its autonomy acquisition office in Washington as part of ongoing acquisition reforms. Recent changes include the establishment of CPE Special Programs Air and the realignment of the autonomy office to better integrate cross-disciplinary functions. These adjustments aim to streamline operations and enhance coordination among various Army offices.

Russia's Su-34 aircraft are actively engaged in combat operations in Ukraine, with significant losses reported. Approximately 35 of the 140 Su-34s at the start of the invasion have been destroyed, primarily due to Ukraine's air defenses. The aircraft, designed as a strike platform, faces challenges in fulfilling its dual role as a fighter.

The Chinese and Russian navies commenced the 'Maritime Cooperation-2026' joint exercise on October 6, 2026, in Qingdao, Shandong. This exercise features numerous naval vessels, including the Varyag missile cruiser and Ufa submarine, focusing on tactical coordination and joint operational capabilities. The event underscores the strategic trust and military cooperation between China and Russia, with activities including joint reconnaissance and air defense drills.

Sensitive military documents were found in a garbage dump in Catterick, Yorkshire, prompting an investigation by the British Ministry of Defence. The documents included personal information of soldiers and details of security incidents. This leak has raised significant concerns about the handling of sensitive military information and accountability within the British Army.

The Chinese Navy's 83rd fleet arrived in Ho Chi Minh City on May 5, 2023, for a four-day friendly visit, marking the first visit in nine years. The fleet includes the training ship Qi Jiguang and the dock landing ship Kunlunshan, and activities include ship tours and cultural exchanges with the Vietnamese Navy. This visit aims to strengthen ties and promote understanding between the two nations' navies.

The U.S. Navy has begun construction on the USS John F. Lehman (DDG-137) at HII’s Ingalls Shipbuilding yard in Pascagoula. The production of Arleigh Burke-class destroyers continues as the DDG(X) program faces delays, with procurement now unlikely until the 2030s. Congress is pushing for the continued development of the DDG(X) while maintaining the production of Flight III destroyers, which remain critical to U.S. naval capabilities.

Europe is stepping up to NATO leadership in 2026, addressing critical issues related to industrial capacity and counter-unmanned aerial systems (C-UAS). This shift reflects a response to the perceived vacuum left by the United States in NATO leadership.

Lockheed Martin announced the acquisition of Ultra Maritime for $3.45 billion to enhance undersea and anti-submarine warfare capabilities. This acquisition will strengthen Lockheed Martin's offerings to U.S. and allied partners. Ultra Maritime, which has improved its revenue and capabilities since being acquired by Advent in 2022, will now operate under Lockheed Martin's rotary and mission systems division. The U.S. Navy has also awarded Ultra Maritime a contract for the AN/SSQ-125B sonobuoy.

On July 6, 2023, the People's Liberation Army Navy successfully launched a submarine-launched strategic missile from a strategic nuclear submarine in the Pacific Ocean. The missile, likely the JL-3, has an estimated range exceeding 8000 kilometers, reinforcing China's nuclear deterrent capabilities. This launch was part of routine military training and was communicated to relevant nations beforehand.

Britain is canceling the Type 83 destroyer and replacing it with a Hybrid Navy concept centered on Common Combat Vessels. This shift aims to address declining naval capabilities and is seen as a significant change in the Royal Navy's strategy. Critics warn that without a proven replacement for the aging Type 45 destroyers, the Royal Navy could have no destroyers by 2040.

The Portuguese Army is acquiring three UH-60 Black Hawk helicopters to modernize its rotary fleet. This decision is part of efforts to enhance operational capabilities. The acquisition is expected to bolster the Army's aviation resources in Portugal.

On July 6, 2026, the People's Liberation Army Navy launched a submarine-launched ballistic missile from a Type 094 Jin-class submarine into the Pacific Ocean during routine training. The missile, which carried a simulated warhead, landed in a designated impact area. This test has raised concerns among Australia, Japan, and New Zealand regarding regional stability and China's expanding nuclear capabilities.

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Norway is increasing its defense spending significantly, planning to allocate $167 billion from 2025 to 2036, with an additional $12 billion announced. The country is standardizing its naval forces, including the acquisition of 212CD submarines and Type 26 frigates, to improve interoperability with NATO. Norwegian officials emphasize the importance of political unity and fiscal strength in addressing defense challenges.

AZAK's unmanned ground vehicle successfully towed a 53,000-pound Palletized Load System truck during a demonstration in Huntsville, Alabama, in March 2026. The robot, weighing 500 pounds, demonstrated its capability to move over 100 times its weight, highlighting advancements in military logistics technology. This event is part of AZAK's ongoing collaboration with the U.S. Army to enhance supply operations in challenging environments.

The USS Enterprise, retired by the U.S. Navy in 2012, is undergoing a complex dismantling process that will not be completed until 2029. The ship's nuclear reactor must be defueled and its radioactive materials disposed of, with spent fuel sent to Idaho and reactor compartments buried in Washington State. A commercial contract for dismantling was awarded in 2025, but legal disputes have delayed the process.

Ukraine's Army Aviation command is transitioning from its Soviet-designed helicopter fleet to American-made UH-60 Black Hawks due to supply chain issues with Russian parts. Brigadier General Pavlo Bardakov emphasized the need for new aircraft, citing modernization efforts and the limitations of existing helicopters. The acquisition may involve refurbished or modernized airframes, as Ukraine seeks to consolidate its aviation capabilities.

Thales agreed to acquire 35.5% of Exail Technologies for €3.9 billion, with plans for a tender offer for the remaining shares. This acquisition aims to enhance Thales's capabilities in underwater warfare and inertial navigation systems. The deal is expected to close in Q3 2026, following which Thales will file a mandatory tender offer for all Exail shares. Concurrently, Fincantieri is acquiring four maritime drone firms to bolster its role in the undersea market.