Analysis & Reports

Embraer is rapidly expanding its defense market presence with significant orders for the KC-390 military transport aircraft from NATO member countries, South Korea, and Middle Eastern nations. Orders have surged to approximately 40 aircraft as of July 2023, driven by increased defense spending in Europe due to the Ukraine conflict. The KC-390 now holds a 60% market share in the medium military transport aircraft sector, with ongoing efforts to penetrate markets in Uzbekistan and the UAE.

Russia is preparing for a new mobilization campaign, with the State Duma passing a law to expand military recruitment. The Kremlin anticipates potential civil unrest as mobilization remains unpopular among the populace. Recent legislative changes aim to increase the number of eligible recruits, including those with criminal records, as the country faces significant troop losses and economic challenges.

Embraer signed an agreement with Anduril to integrate Barracuda-500M missiles onto the C-390 Millennium aircraft at the Farnborough Airshow. This marks the first offensive capability for the C-390, with interest from various countries in Europe and Asia. Embraer anticipates delivering the first two C-390s to the United Arab Emirates by 2028, while also expanding production of the Saab Gripen for international clients.

Russia is projected to rebuild its military to 1.3 million troops by 2026, despite significant losses. The country is ramping up production of tanks and infantry vehicles while expanding its drone capabilities. However, it faces challenges in air power and recruitment, with a declining number of fighter jets and strategic bombers. The military's future effectiveness remains uncertain as it navigates these issues.

Ben Wallace urged the Israeli government to assist Ukraine early in the war, but Israel declined to avoid upsetting Russia. This decision has led to increased Russian-Iranian cooperation in drone attacks against Israel. Wallace criticized Israel's broader economic relationship with Russia, emphasizing the consequences of their refusal to support Ukraine. The situation reflects ongoing tensions and the complex geopolitical dynamics involving Israel, Ukraine, and Russia.

Russia is likely to continue its military operations in Ukraine while managing a strained economy, with plans for an armistice that allows military production to persist. The Kremlin faces challenges reintegrating over a million veterans into a struggling civilian economy, as regional deficits rise and military enlistment remains a key economic driver. Putin's strategies include maintaining high defense spending and utilizing veterans in government roles.

Russia has unveiled advanced military prototypes, including the T-14 tank and Su-57 fighter, but has produced only a handful due to production challenges. In contrast, it has successfully manufactured tens of thousands of cheap drones, highlighting a significant shift in its military capabilities. The T-14 and Su-57 remain largely unutilized in combat, while the Su-75 Checkmate has yet to fly.

Russia's Foreign Ministry spokesperson declared that the deployment of military forces from any 'Volunteer Alliance' country in Ukraine is unacceptable and will be treated as legitimate targets. This statement was made during a press conference in Moscow on July 15, 2023. The 'Volunteer Alliance', led by France and the UK, plans to conduct military exercises in European countries bordering Ukraine, which Russia views as a significant security threat.

Russia's submarine force remains a significant threat to NATO in 2026, with 8 Borei-class submarines and ongoing modernization efforts. The fleet faces challenges, including slow production rates and operational losses, but continues to operate effectively in strategic regions like the Arctic and North Atlantic. The introduction of new capabilities, such as the Khabarovsk carrier for Poseidon torpedoes, underscores its importance in Russia's military strategy.

Fortaco Finland Oy signed an agreement to sell its steel fabrication and assembly operations in Kurikka, Sastamala, Narva, Wroclaw, and Janow Lubelski to HANZA Group for EUR 144 million. This transaction, expected to close in Q4-2026, allows Fortaco to concentrate on its vehicle cabin business, enhancing its position in the market. HANZA Group aims to strengthen its capabilities in Europe through this acquisition, which includes five factories.

The Admiral Kuznetsov, Russia's only aircraft carrier, is set to be scrapped in Murmansk by 2025 after years of failed repairs and multiple accidents. The vessel has been out of service since 2017, and its decommissioning reflects the Russian Navy's inability to maintain modern naval capabilities. Corruption and financial mismanagement further complicated the situation, leaving Russia without an operational aircraft carrier and diminishing its power projection capabilities.

Turkey is negotiating to sell its Russian-made S-400 missile system to acquire U.S. F-35 fighter jets, amid significant political and military implications. The U.S. has expressed concerns about Turkey's S-400 system preventing the sale of F-35s, while Israel opposes the deal, fearing it would disrupt regional power dynamics. Discussions with Russia regarding the resale of the S-400 are ongoing, adding complexity to the situation.

In July 2026, Ukraine and nine European nations announced the formation of the Integrated Anti-Ballistic Missile Coalition in Paris, aiming to enhance missile defense capabilities against Russian threats. Following this announcement, Russia launched 134 long-range drones and three guided missiles targeting Ukraine. The coalition seeks to leverage Ukraine's combat experience to develop a more cost-effective missile defense system, addressing the challenges posed by Russian ballistic missile attacks.

Dmitri VolkovTue Jul 14 2026Loading...

The F-35 Lightning II decisively outmatches the MiG-35 Fulcrum-F in air combat, primarily due to its stealth and advanced detection capabilities. The MiG-35, while agile in close-range dogfights, is unlikely to engage effectively as it is outclassed in beyond-visual-range scenarios. With fewer than 10 MiG-35s built and over 1,100 F-35s operational, the disparity in numbers further favors the F-35.

The Komsomolsk-on-Amur plant in Russia completed 20 Su-35 jets for Iran, causing delays for the Russian Aerospace Forces as export orders take precedence. Deliveries to Russia's air force are expected to slow for the next two to three years, highlighting logistical challenges in military aircraft production amid multiple international commitments.

The Pentagon is enhancing its detection capabilities for deepfakes but is failing to address the more significant issue of adversaries poisoning AI training data. This vulnerability has been documented by civilian researchers, revealing that disinformation campaigns from countries like Iran and Russia are influencing AI outputs. The report emphasizes the need for data provenance standards and greater awareness of these threats among defense professionals.

Russian satellites have been interfering with GPS signals across northern Europe, Greenland, and Canada since 2019, indicating the use of electronic warfare. This interference has also affected China's Bei Dou navigation system since 2020. The U.S. government has not established backup systems for GPS, despite the growing threat from Russia, which has a history of threatening to disrupt GPS services globally.

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine remains at a stalemate, with Russia unable to break through Ukrainian defenses. Ukraine's efforts to increase the cost of the war for Russia continue, while Putin faces limited options, including potential negotiation. The situation is characterized by a lack of new strategies from Russia and increasing resource strain on Moscow.

Turkey is enhancing its ties with NATO, contributing over 2000 troops and the TCG Anadolu carrier to defense initiatives. Analysts note that Turkey's military capabilities are increasingly recognized, particularly in the Black Sea and surrounding regions. However, tensions remain due to Turkey's geopolitical interests and its past conflicts with NATO members, particularly regarding defense initiatives and equipment procurement.

Ukrainian armed forces intensified attacks on Russian infrastructure as the frontline situation deteriorated. The Russian military is establishing a security buffer zone at the border, showing tangible results. Russia remains open to peace negotiations and anticipates U.S. mediation, while expressing concerns over the EU's military-political stance worsening the Ukraine situation.