Analysis & Reports

U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin stated that the U.S. military can indefinitely maintain its maritime blockade against Iran. As of August 13, 2023, the U.S. Navy has forced 59 merchant ships to change their routes and rendered 3 ships incapable of navigation. The blockade is part of ongoing operations in the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran claims to have full control.

Houthi forces attacked a Saudi Aramco oil refinery in Jizan, Saudi Arabia, using two drones on August 13. The attack was reported to be very precise, following a similar strike on August 9. The Houthi forces have claimed responsibility for this operation.

Houthi forces attacked a government military base in Abd, Hadramaut Governorate, Yemen, on August 13, using drones. The assault resulted in at least 3 soldiers dead and 15 injured, with some injuries reported as severe. The 3rd Brigade of the Shield of the Homeland was the targeted unit, and the area is located near the Saudi border.

An Israeli airstrike targeted the vehicle of Gaza City police chief Abu Kamal in Gaza City on August 13, resulting in his death and injuries to three others. The strike involved three missiles, which completely destroyed the vehicle.

Iran retained and maintained a fleet of 79 F-14 Tomcat fighters purchased from the U.S. in 1974, despite sanctions and logistical challenges. Over the years, Iran adapted by cannibalizing parts and developing domestic manufacturing capabilities. However, by 2026, the combat effectiveness of the fleet was nearly zero, with many aircraft destroyed in recent strikes.

The U.S. secretly sold over 1,500 TOW anti-tank missiles and Hawk missile components to Iran between 1985 and 1986 as part of an arms-for-hostages initiative. This operation aimed to secure the release of American hostages held by Iran-backed groups in Lebanon, violating a U.S. arms embargo. The scandal surrounding these sales contributed to the Iran-Contra Affair, revealing illegal funding activities for Contra rebels in Nicaragua.

Iran maintained its fleet of 225 F-4 Phantom fighters from before the 1979 revolution through cannibalization and clandestine procurement. Despite significant attrition and operational challenges, the F-4s remained a valuable long-range strike capability during the Iran-Iraq War. By the 2020s, many F-4s were no longer credible against modern air forces and were primarily used for parts, with some destroyed in Israeli air strikes in 2025.

The U.S. military is set to withdraw from Iraq by September 30, 2024, reducing its presence from 2,500 troops. Iran-backed militias, including Kataib Hezbollah and Harakat al-Nujaba, have refused to disarm, raising concerns about Iraq's security post-withdrawal. Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi has linked the U.S. exit to a deadline for these militias to surrender their weapons, but their compliance remains uncertain. This withdrawal occurs amid ongoing conflicts involving Iran.

Alexandra ReevesThu Aug 13 2026Loading...

The Pentagon is considering strategies for the Iran war, focusing on targeted assassinations of Iranian leadership to disrupt their command structure. Recent operations include the resumption of F-15EX deliveries to the Portland Air National Guard Base. Historical precedents, such as the assassination of Qassem Soleimani, are cited as effective methods to create a leadership vacuum within Iran.

Israeli Defense Forces conducted an airstrike in Khan Younis on October 13, killing a Hamas military commander. The commander was reportedly planning an attack against Israeli forces operating in the Gaza Strip. No response from Hamas has been reported regarding this incident.

Israel conducted military operations using its F-35I Adir stealth fighters in Iran during 2025 and 2026, achieving air superiority without reported losses. The Israeli Air Force utilized these aircraft for airstrikes, surveillance, and missile detection, demonstrating their advanced capabilities. Plans are in place to expand the fleet from 48 to 100 aircraft, reflecting lessons learned from recent conflicts.

Iran's air defenses struggled against U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in 2025, failing to provide adequate protection during Operation Epic Fury. Despite significant losses, including the downing of advanced systems, Iran's mobile defense network continues to pose a threat, managing to shoot down several U.S. UAVs. The rugged geography of Iran complicates the effectiveness of its air defense systems, which include a mix of domestic and foreign technologies.

Lockheed Martin was awarded a $211.4 million contract modification to build new THAAD launchers for the United Arab Emirates, announced on August 12, 2026. This modification increases the total contract value to over $1.05 billion, with work scheduled from August 2026 through January 2031. The THAAD system is designed to intercept ballistic missiles and is part of the UAE's expanding missile defense architecture.

The U.S. Department of Defense announced a $58.6 billion contract with Lockheed Martin for the production of Patriot PAC-3 MSE missiles, as existing stockpiles have been significantly depleted. The Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, are heavily reliant on these systems for defense, with less than 1000 Patriot missiles remaining. Iran has issued warnings to Gulf nations regarding potential attacks if U.S. military actions persist, highlighting the vulnerabilities in Gulf air defense capabilities.

Ahmed Al-RashidThu Aug 13 2026Loading...

Iran targeted U.S. radar systems and missile defense assets at Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia on March 1, resulting in the death of U.S. Army Staff Sgt. Benjamin Pennington. General Stephen Whiting highlighted the need for improved protection of space assets due to evolving threats from adversaries like Iran. Defense experts have called for hardening existing structures to mitigate risks from drone and missile attacks.

U.S. officials criticized Israeli Defense Minister Katz for suggesting a long-term military presence in southern Lebanon, stating it contradicts previous commitments made by Israel. Katz claimed the Israeli military would remain in the region to ensure security. The U.S. emphasized the importance of adhering to the framework agreement established on June 26, which called for Israeli withdrawal and Lebanese control over local security matters.

Multiple sailors aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln attempted suicide while deployed in the Middle East for over 250 days. Reports indicate severe living conditions, including moldy showers and food shortages, contributing to the psychological stress of the crew. Family members expressed concerns about the sailors' well-being during a recent town hall meeting.

Iran's F-14 Tomcats remain a point of contention, with reports indicating that at least five were destroyed in Israeli airstrikes in 2025. As of March 2026, the Israeli Air Force claimed to have obliterated the remaining fleet, but Iranian state media released footage of an F-14 returning from a mission, raising questions about its operational status. The Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force (IRIAF) continues to assert the presence of these aircraft despite conflicting evidence.

Houthi rebels attacked the Tanzania-flagged Tihamah in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on August 11, 2024, killing six people, including four crew members. This incident marks the first fatalities from Houthi attacks on commercial shipping in over a year and coincides with the Houthis enforcing a blockade against Saudi-linked vessels. The blockade threatens Saudi Arabia's oil transport routes as tensions in the region escalate.

Iran has received 460 M60 tanks and 894 Chieftain tanks, maintaining a significant armored force. The Iranian Army and IRGC continue to modernize these tanks, including the recent Soleiman-402 variant. Despite sanctions, Iran has managed to sustain its fleet and develop domestic tank models.