The U.S. Military's "Island Seizure" Against Iran May Fall into Multiple Crises

[Global Times Special Correspondent Chen Yang] The conflict in the Middle East continues. To exert pressure on Iran, the Pentagon has increased the deployment of Marine Corps to the region, and there are rumors that the U.S. military is considering seizing Iran's key oil export hub—Hark Island. However, foreign media analysis suggests that if the U.S. launches an island-seizing operation against Iran, it will not only face greater risks but is also likely to become more deeply embroiled in the conflict.

Deploying Amphibious Task Forces to the Middle East

According to a report from the U.S. Defense News website on the 14th, U.S. President Trump announced via social media on the 13th local time that the U.S. military has launched intense airstrikes on Hark Island, claiming to have "completely destroyed" all military targets on the island. He stated that the U.S. military's actions did not destroy the oil facilities on the island, but "if Iran interferes with the safe passage of vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, this decision will be reconsidered immediately." The U.S. Central Command also claimed that the operation destroyed Iranian naval mine storage facilities, missile storage bunkers, and other targets, but "reserved" the oil infrastructure.

Meanwhile, the Pentagon is dispatching Marines and more warships to the Middle East. The Wall Street Journal reported on the 14th that this move aims to respond to Iranian attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Citing U.S. officials, The Wall Street Journal stated that Defense Secretary Esper has approved a request from U.S. Central Command to send an amphibious readiness group and its attached Marine Expeditionary Force. An amphibious readiness group typically includes one amphibious assault ship, two dock landing ships, and one support ship, carrying at least 2,200 Marines. Reports indicate that the amphibious readiness group being deployed will be centered around the amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli, which is currently en route from the Asia-Pacific to the Middle East to join the carrier strike groups USS Lincoln and USS Ford already deployed in the region.

The U.S. website "Power" reported on the 14th that the Marine Expeditionary Force aboard the USS Tripoli is one of the most important rapid response forces in the U.S. military, with fully integrated air, ground, and logistics capabilities. Its core combat force consists of a Marine infantry battalion, supplemented by artillery, amphibious vehicles, engineers, and reconnaissance forces. Additionally, a composite medium helicopter squadron provides air support, including various types of transport helicopters, attack helicopters, and jets, as well as air defense teams and ground support forces.

Notably, the USS Tripoli is designed to enhance air operations and is capable of carrying F-35B stealth fighters, which gives it a more diverse range of combat capabilities, including deploying F-35Bs to strike inland targets in Iran; using onboard AH-1Z and UH-1Y helicopters to perform maritime control missions, such as attacking Iranian small vessels; and utilizing MV-22 Ospreys or CH-53 transport helicopters to airlift Marines for assault missions.

Risks Facing the Amphibious Assault Ship

U.S. media analysis suggests that the deployment of the USS Tripoli and its Marine Corps may involve missions such as controlling Iranian peripheral islands along the Strait of Hormuz and assisting in intercepting potential Iranian mine-laying and blockade operations. Previously, Axios News reported that the White House has discussed the possibility of deploying troops to seize Hark Island multiple times. Michael Rubin, a scholar at the conservative American Enterprise Institute, told The Washington Post that occupying Hark Island is "a no-brainer," and the island-seizing plan has circulated within the National Security Council, which is coordinated by Secretary of State Rubio.

However, the Associated Press stated that while the Marine Expeditionary Force has amphibious landing capabilities, its conventional tasks also include enhancing embassy security, civilian evacuation, and disaster relief, and this deployment does not necessarily mean that the U.S. will launch ground operations. Military analyst Sean Bell stated, "These U.S. Marines will likely take about two weeks to arrive in the Middle East. In the current context of conflict in the Middle East, two weeks is a long time. Therefore, this may just be a simple threat from Trump, merely to show that he does not rule out the possibility of deploying ground troops."

It is worth noting that Hark Island is located deep in the Persian Gulf, and if U.S. amphibious assault ships want to launch an island-seizing operation by sea, they must first pass through the Strait of Hormuz, which means that the U.S. Navy fleet would need to risk entering the range of Iranian coastal strike capabilities. The Defense News website reported on the 14th that Iran's strategy to blockade the Strait of Hormuz relies on "asymmetric tactics," allowing for flexible switching between the use of fast attack boats, unmanned vessels, drones, coastal missile launch sites, and various mines. "This is a multidimensional threat," analyzed retired Navy Colonel Bill Hamblet, "If Iran uses mines to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. vessels will need to carefully sweep for mines as they pass through, which is a slow, methodical, and mechanized process. Additionally, the U.S. must protect the mine-sweeping operation from other potential threats." Hamblet explained that Iran could launch drones, missiles, and small attack boats to attack while U.S. forces are sweeping for mines. "They would equip these boats with small missiles or machine guns, capable of speeds up to 50 knots. While clearing mines or escorting merchant vessels, the U.S. Navy also needs to be capable of defending against these threats." According to a U.S. Congressional report released in 2025, Iran possesses 5,000 to 6,000 mines, including contact mines that attach directly to hulls, moored mines that float underwater and detonate upon contact, and bottom mines that explode when detecting passing vessels.

Hark Island is Easy to Attack but Hard to Defend

In addition to risking the amphibious assault ship passing through the Strait of Hormuz, another option for the U.S. to seize Hark Island is to conduct a forced airborne assault under the cover of air and coastal firepower, or to launch an amphibious landing from the southern shore of the Persian Gulf. Hark Island is one of Iran's most sensitive and vulnerable targets, often referred to as Iran's "oil heart." The Pakistani newspaper Dawn reported on the 14th that the U.S. believes that controlling the island would cut off Iran's economic lifeline and weaken its ability to sustain military operations, thereby forcing Iran to capitulate. Petras Katinis, a researcher at the Royal United Services Institute, believes that the U.S. seizure of Hark Island would "cut off Iran's oil lifeline" and could be used as leverage in negotiations.

From a military perspective, Hark Island is easy to attack but hard to defend. The island is located about 25 kilometers from the Iranian coast, approximately 6 kilometers long and 3 kilometers wide, and lacks sufficient space and terrain cover to deploy defensive forces. Therefore, while the U.S. military could theoretically easily capture the island, maintaining a sustained occupation would pose significant risks. Some analysts believe that the U.S. military has previously avoided directly entering the range of Iranian firepower, but if it forcibly occupies Hark Island, the stationed U.S. forces and their supply lines would continuously face threats from Iranian drones and missiles. Andreas Krieg, a senior lecturer at King's College London, also believes that Hark Island's proximity to the Iranian coast means that if the U.S. conducts a landing operation, it will face Iranian missile, drone, and naval strikes, "which is much riskier than conducting airstrikes."

The spokesperson for the Iranian Armed Forces Command stated on the 14th that if Iran's oil, economic, and energy infrastructure is attacked, all oil, economic, and energy infrastructure owned by oil companies cooperating with the U.S. or in which the U.S. has shares in the Middle East will be "immediately destroyed, turned to ashes." Former Iranian Foreign Minister and current member of parliament Manouchehr Mottaki issued a stern warning to the U.S., stating that if the U.S. attempts to seize Hark Island, U.S. forces stationed in the Middle East will face the risk of "being captured." He threatened, "If the U.S. military dares to take such actions and occupy our territory, then why can't we go to their territory, namely their military bases here, to conduct helicopter missions and capture their stationed troops?"