Analysis & Reports
AI-assisted analysis of military-related information from public sources

The Hazelnut over Kyiv in May 2026 Shows the Limits of the Russian Coercion Strategy
On May 23-29, 2026, the Ukrainian Air Force reported intercepting 549 drones and 55 missiles during a massive airstrike by Russian forces on Kyiv and Luhansk Oblast. Russia confirmed the use of the 'Oreshnik' missile, indicating a shift in their military strategy towards demonstrating political pressure. The attack involved a total of 690 aerial assets, including drones and missiles, and prompted warnings to foreign diplomats in Kyiv about potential risks.
Dmitri VolkovFri May 29 2026Loading...
Plates from 2004 to 2014 in "Oreshnik" Reveal the Belarusian Trace of Russian Missile Blackmail
On May 24, 2023, Russian forces launched a mixed package of 90 missiles and 600 drones against Ukraine, targeting areas including Kyiv and Belaya Tserkov. Ukrainian air defense intercepted 55 missiles and 549 drones, resulting in at least two deaths and multiple injuries. The Oreshnik missile, identified as containing outdated Russian and Belarusian components, raised concerns about its effectiveness as a strategic weapon.
Dmitri VolkovThu May 28 2026Loading...
The Law on Banking Air Defense in Russia Shows a Deficit in Counter-Drone Defense 2026
On May 26, 2026, the State Duma passed a law enabling the Bank of Russia, Sberbank, and Rosinkas to independently suppress drone operations at protected sites. This legislative change reflects the inadequacies of centralized air defense in Russia and shifts some military responsibilities to civilian banks, which can now engage in electronic warfare against drones. The law aims to enhance the coverage of drone defense across various locations in Russia, particularly in urban areas.
Dmitri VolkovWed May 27 2026Loading...
"Nut Tree" over Kyiv 2026 — 600 Drones and the Cost of a Demonstrative Strike
Russia conducted a significant strike involving 600 drones and 90 missiles against Ukraine on May 23-24, 2026, primarily targeting Kyiv and Belaya Tserkov. The operation aimed to create a political and psychological impact, with Ukrainian air defenses claiming to intercept a large number of the attacking drones and missiles. The strike included the use of the Oreshnik missile, raising concerns about its reliability after a reported failure.
Dmitri VolkovWed May 27 2026Loading...
Hazelnut over Kyiv — 690 Targets and the New Economy of Russian Coercion
On the night of May 24, 2026, the Russian Armed Forces launched a massive airstrike against Ukraine, deploying 690 aerial targets, including 600 drones and 90 missiles. The primary target areas included Kyiv and Bila Tserkva, with Ukrainian forces claiming to have intercepted a significant number of these threats. This operation reflects a shift in Russian military strategy towards overwhelming air defenses with mass attacks.
Dmitri VolkovMon May 25 2026Loading...
Hazelnut over Kyiv in May 2026 — the third application changes the logic of Russian strikes
On May 23-24, 2026, Russian Armed Forces conducted a massive strike on Kyiv, deploying 600 drones and 90 missiles, including the hypersonic Oreshnik missile. This marked the third use of the Oreshnik since the full-scale invasion began in February 2022. The attack is noted as one of the heaviest on Kyiv throughout the conflict, aiming to demonstrate Russia's military capabilities and send a political message to Ukraine and its allies.
Dmitri VolkovMon May 25 2026Loading...
Under Oreshnik Alert, Russia's Hypersonic Retaliation Readiness Pushes Russo-Ukrainian Long-Range Strikes into a New Phase
Russia is preparing to launch Oreshnik hypersonic missiles against Ukraine, with potential targets including Kyiv and Lviv, as part of a combined strike. This warning follows recent drone attacks on Russian positions in Starobilsk, prompting a call for retaliation from President Putin. The U.S. Embassy in Kyiv has also issued alerts about possible significant airstrikes within the next 24 hours, indicating a high-risk situation for Ukraine.
Dmitri VolkovSat May 23 2026Loading...64 thousand troops in Russia and Belarus' nuclear exercises demonstrate the limits of deterrence 2026
Russian and Belarusian forces conducted nuclear exercises from May 19 to 21, 2026, involving 64,000 personnel and various missile systems. The exercises aimed to prepare nuclear forces for potential aggression, with significant participation from the Russian Northern and Pacific Fleets. Belarusian units trained on the handling of Russian nuclear munitions, indicating a shift in the strategic role of Belarus in the region.
Dmitri VolkovSat May 23 2026Loading...
The defeat of "Cloud" in Kaspiysk deprives the Russian fleet of a safe rear for "Kalibr" 2026
The missile ship 'Tucha' of the Russian Navy was reportedly destroyed or heavily damaged in Kaspiysk on May 22, 2023, following a Ukrainian strike. This incident significantly undermines the operational security of the Caspian Flotilla, which has been considered a safe base for missile carriers. The loss of 'Tucha' raises concerns about the vulnerability of Russian naval assets to further attacks.
Dmitri VolkovFri May 22 2026Loading...Four Hangars in Chkalovsk Showcase the New Defense of Russian Aviation in 2026
Four hangars are being constructed at the Chkalovsk naval air base in Kaliningrad Oblast since late April 2026, reflecting a shift in Russian military strategy towards enhancing aircraft protection. This move is in response to increased threats from Ukrainian strikes, indicating a recognition of vulnerabilities in Russian aviation infrastructure. The hangars aim to provide passive defense against drone attacks and other threats, showcasing a change in resource allocation within the Russian Armed Forces.
Dmitri VolkovFri May 22 2026Loading...
R-60 on "Geran-2" with 12 µSv/h Reveals the Limits of Russian Improvisation
Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) discovered R-60 missile fragments with depleted uranium elements near Kamka, Chernihiv Oblast, following an attack on April 7, 2026. The SBU reports that these missiles are being used by Russian forces to target Ukrainian aircraft and helicopters. This adaptation highlights the ongoing evolution of Russian military tactics in response to Ukrainian air defense capabilities.
Dmitri VolkovWed May 20 2026Loading...
200 Russian soldiers trained by the PLA are changing the school of drone warfare
Around 200 Russian military personnel underwent training in drone warfare and counter-drone operations at Chinese military facilities in Beijing, Nanjing, Shijiazhuang, and Zhengzhou by the end of 2025. This training is part of a broader military cooperation between Russia and China, aimed at enhancing operational capabilities on the Ukrainian front. The courses included advanced tactics for using drones in combat situations, indicating a significant transfer of military knowledge.
Dmitri VolkovWed May 20 2026Loading...
The 25-Kilometer Death Zone Near Pokrovsk Shows a New Mechanism of Russian Infantry Warfare
Russian forces maintain control over Pokrovsk and Mirnograd, employing drones and artillery to suppress Ukrainian positions and logistics. A 25-kilometer kill zone has been established, complicating Ukrainian operations. The report highlights the effective coordination of Russian infantry, drones, and artillery, indicating a shift in tactics. Logistical challenges are significant for both sides, particularly affecting Ukrainian capabilities.
Dmitri VolkovTue May 19 2026Loading...
Ukrainian 250-Kilogram Glide Bomb Breaks Russian KAB Monopoly in 2026
Ukraine has developed a 250-kilogram guided bomb, which has been procured in an experimental batch and is currently being tested by pilots. This advancement poses a challenge to Russia's previous dominance in guided munitions, as the bomb can strike targets from several kilometers away. The development reflects Ukraine's efforts to enhance its military capabilities amid ongoing conflict with Russia.
Dmitri VolkovMon May 18 2026Loading...556 Ukrainian Drones Over Russia Turn Moscow's Air Defense into an Economic Challenge
Ukrainian drones conducted a large-scale attack on Russian territory, with 556 drones intercepted and destroyed by Russian air defenses over a nine-hour period. The strikes targeted critical infrastructure around Moscow, resulting in at least four fatalities and twelve injuries. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy described the attacks as a justified response to recent Russian strikes on Ukrainian cities.
Dmitri VolkovSun May 17 2026Loading...The Strategic Deadlock: Russia Spring-Summer 2026 Offensive and the Reconfiguration of NATOs Eastern Flank
Russian forces launched an offensive in May 2026, achieving significant territorial gains in Donetsk Oblast amid intense combat operations. Ukrainian forces engaged in 263 combat incidents and counterattacks, while Russia conducted numerous airstrikes and drone sorties. NATO member states met on May 13 to address escalating Russian hybrid threats, emphasizing the need for enhanced air and missile defense. Concurrently, Ukraine is transforming into a security exporter, deploying military specialists abroad.
Dmitri VolkovSun May 17 2026Loading...
The Ceasefire Mirage: Russia Spring 2026 Offensive and NATOs Bucharest Reckoning
Russia launched a large-scale missile and drone attack on Kyiv from May 13 to 14, 2026, resulting in significant civilian casualties. Ukrainian forces reported numerous combat engagements during a failed ceasefire, while NATO leaders in Bucharest declared Russia the primary threat to security and endorsed a new defense strategy. The conflict has intensified, with Ukraine preparing for potential long-range retaliatory strikes.
Dmitri VolkovSat May 16 2026Loading...
The Escalation Calculus: Russia's Spring-Summer 2026 Offensive and the Shifting Balance of Asymmetric Warfare
On May 13-14, 2026, Russian forces conducted a mass strike on Kyiv, launching 56 missiles and 675 drones, resulting in at least 24 civilian deaths. Ukrainian air defenses successfully intercepted 94% of the drones but only 7% of the missiles. The attack highlights vulnerabilities in Ukraine's air defense capabilities and has prompted discussions of potential Ukrainian responses.
Dmitri VolkovSat May 16 2026Loading...Escalation Dynamics in the Russia-Ukraine War Mid-May 2026
On May 13-14, 2026, Russian Armed Forces conducted a mass strike on Kyiv, launching 56 missiles and 675 drones. The attack resulted in the deaths of 24 civilians, with Ukraine managing to intercept 94% of the drones but only 7% of the missiles.
Dmitri VolkovSat May 16 2026Loading...
Death toll in Kyiv residential building rises to 24: Escalation spiral after the largest two-day airstrikes by Russian forces
Russian forces conducted a large-scale airstrike on a residential building in Kyiv on May 14-15, 2026, killing at least 24 people, including children. In response, Ukraine launched drone strikes targeting Russian infrastructure, including an oil refinery in Ryazan, resulting in additional casualties. This escalation marks a significant increase in military operations and complicates ongoing diplomatic efforts for peace negotiations.
Dmitri VolkovFri May 15 2026Loading...





