Analysis & Reports

JNIM and the Islamic State are expected to escalate violence in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, with over 3,000 incidents projected for 2026. Significant attacks have occurred, including a coordinated offensive on April 25 targeting multiple cities. The security situation has worsened, highlighted by the death of the Malian Defense Minister in a suicide attack, reflecting the growing influence of jihadist groups in the region.

Marie DuboisThu Sep 17 2026Loading...

On September 3, 2026, foreign networks supplied 2,000 Colombian fighters to the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan, while the Sudanese Army utilized foreign-supplied drones in operations. This support has led to increased military capabilities and significant civilian casualties, with recent attacks resulting in over 180 deaths. The conflict is becoming more sophisticated and transnational, with logistics corridors extending beyond Sudan's borders.

Marie DuboisFri Sep 04 2026Loading...

On September 2, a patrol from the 151 Task Force Battalion was attacked by an IED and gunfire along the Miyanti-Banki axis in Borno, resulting in the death of three assailants. Two ISWAP fighters surrendered in Monguno with assault rifles and personal items. Despite these events, the Nigerian Army struggles to maintain control over supply routes, indicating ongoing logistical challenges in the region.

Marie DuboisWed Sep 02 2026Loading...

On August 27, 2026, the Nigerian Army's Hadin Kai operation killed 21 jihadists at Kopre Mountain in Adamawa. The military engaged in two armed confrontations and destroyed a logistical depot containing motorcycles, bicycles, and weapons. This operation highlights the ongoing insurgency's expansion into southern Adamawa, indicating a shift in jihadist tactics and operational geography.

Marie DuboisMon Aug 31 2026Loading...

Algeria is re-establishing diplomatic ties with Mali and Niger to enhance logistical and security cooperation. Meetings in Algiers involved leaders from both countries, focusing on operational needs in the Sahel. Algeria's role is deemed essential for stabilizing the northern region, as the AES seeks to strengthen its partnerships and address security challenges.

Marie DuboisFri Aug 28 2026Loading...

Malian authorities imposed a curfew in San from August 24, 2026, due to escalating security concerns following a complex attack on the 23rd Infantry Regiment on August 9. The attack utilized heavy machine guns, kamikaze drones, and armored vehicles, highlighting the logistical challenges faced by the government in maintaining security. The JNIM claimed responsibility for the assault, indicating a persistent threat in the region.

Marie DuboisThu Aug 27 2026Loading...

Ghana's Ministry of Foreign Affairs advised against road travel to Dakar on August 21, 2026, citing security risks from JNIM's influence. The Malian Army is escorting around 1,000 trucks weekly to ensure supply routes remain open. The report highlights a significant shift in the perception of Sahelian transport corridors, indicating they are now viewed as operationally contaminated spaces.

Marie DuboisWed Aug 26 2026Loading...

On August 25, over 150 fighters from Boko Haram and ISWAP surrendered near Maiduguri, Nigeria, marking a significant increase in surrenders due to intensified military pressure. The report highlights that while this indicates stress within the insurgent networks, it does not equate to a strategic defeat. The Nigerian military's ongoing operations aim to disrupt insurgent logistics and maintain territorial control in the region.

Marie DuboisTue Aug 25 2026Loading...

Chad closed its eastern border with Sudan after Sudanese drones conducted airstrikes on supply columns near Mourdi. The strikes targeted a convoy of approximately 200 vehicles, with 70 reportedly destroyed. This escalation indicates that the border is now viewed as a potential combat zone by the Chadian military, significantly impacting logistics and supply routes in the region.

Marie DuboisTue Aug 25 2026Loading...

Malian Prime Minister Abdoulaye Maïga visited Algiers on August 24, 2026, to discuss military cooperation and border security with Algerian officials. This visit follows the release of 82 Malian soldiers, facilitated by Algeria, highlighting the importance of the Algeria-Mali border for military logistics. The ongoing conflict in northern Mali necessitates collaboration between the two nations to address security challenges.

Marie DuboisMon Aug 24 2026Loading...

Russian military aircraft conducted 75 flights between Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger from January 2025 to July 2026, establishing Ouagadougou as a key logistical hub. The majority of these flights involved heavy Soviet models, indicating a focus on military logistics. Burkina Faso, facing significant extremist violence, has become increasingly reliant on Russian aviation support, highlighting vulnerabilities in local security operations.

Marie DuboisSun Aug 23 2026Loading...

FAMa conducted airstrikes on JNIM-FLA coalition sanctuaries in Kidal on August 16, following previous strikes on August 15 in Sandaré. The operations targeted enemy concentrations in Tinzawatène and Talhandak, aiming to disrupt JNIM's logistical routes. The campaign, named Dougoukoloko, represents a significant escalation in military activity in the region.

Marie DuboisTue Aug 18 2026Loading...

On April 25, 2026, the JNIM and FLA launched a coordinated offensive, capturing Kidal and five other locations in Mali. The operation was financed by a $50 million ransom paid by a Gulf state for a hostage, which enabled the jihadists to plan and execute simultaneous attacks. General Sadio Camara was killed in Kati during the assault, marking a significant escalation in the conflict.

Marie DuboisSun Aug 16 2026Loading...

Ghana and Burkina Faso signed a military cooperation agreement on August 12, 2026, to secure the Tema corridor against threats from JNIM. The agreement includes armed escorts for commercial trucks and coordinated patrols along the border. This move comes in response to previous attacks by JNIM on Ghanaian merchants, highlighting the increasing threat in the region.

Marie DuboisThu Aug 13 2026Loading...

ISWAP is actively conducting military operations in Nigeria, with an estimated 8,000 to 12,000 fighters involved. The group is recruiting from local militias like Lakurawa and coordinating with other jihadist factions. Recent reports indicate a significant increase in ISWAP's activities, surpassing historical ISIS affiliates in Iraq and Syria. The situation is exacerbated by the ongoing jihadist pressure from groups like EIGS, affecting regional stability.

Marie DuboisWed Aug 12 2026Loading...

On August 4, 2026, the Malian Armed Forces and Africa Corps conducted targeted airstrikes on illegal gold mining sites in Tessalit and Tabrishat, disrupting funding for the JNIM terrorist group. This operation is part of a larger campaign to combat the financial resources of insurgent groups in northern Mali. The strikes are intended to send a message to local communities about the ineffectiveness of JNIM's protection against aerial attacks.

Marie DuboisFri Aug 07 2026Loading...

The U.S. is expanding its military base in Bosaso, Somalia, following a meeting with U.S. General Claude K. Tudor Jr. This expansion aims to enhance counter-terrorism operations while the U.S. ends its support for the UN logistics office for AUSSOM. Puntland forces, supported by U.S. airstrikes and intelligence, have regained territory from ISIS. The operational costs of the UN support office are significant, raising concerns about the future of AUSSOM's logistics capabilities.

Marie DuboisMon Aug 03 2026Loading...

On July 25, 2026, a long column of armored vehicles and military trucks arrived in Bamako, Mali, delivered by the Russian cargo ship Mikhail Britnev. This shipment, which included BTR armored personnel carriers, was part of Russia's ongoing support for Africa Corps amid a severe security crisis in Mali, marked by increased attacks from armed groups. The logistical route involved transport through Togo and Burkina Faso, highlighting the complexities of military supply in the region.

Marie DuboisSun Aug 02 2026Loading...

Eight soldiers from the 24 Task Force Brigade were killed by an improvised explosive device on July 30, 2026, while escorting supplies along the Maiduguri-Dikwa route in Borno, Nigeria. This incident highlights the ongoing threat posed by ISWAP to Nigerian military logistics and operations in the region. The attack is part of a broader pattern of assaults aimed at disrupting supply lines.

Marie DuboisSat Aug 01 2026Loading...

Military leaders from troop-contributing countries met in Kampala on July 29, 2023, to address the future of the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) after the U.S. announced it would cease funding after December 31, 2026. The mission, which currently relies on U.S. logistical support, faces significant challenges from al-Shabaab and uncertainties regarding its operational capacity without American assistance.

Marie DuboisFri Jul 31 2026Loading...