Analysis & Reports

Nigerien President Abdourahamane Tiani announced an increase in the unified force of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) from 5,000 to 6,000 soldiers on February 14, 2024, in Niamey. This move reflects the strategic ambitions of the military regimes in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso amid ongoing jihadist threats. The AES, formed in response to regional pressures and the withdrawal of French forces, aims to establish operational capability without Western support, while also signaling a shift towards closer ties with Russia.

Marie DuboisSun Feb 15 2026Loading...

China is developing the H-20 stealth bomber to enhance its military capabilities in the Indo-Pacific, aiming for dominance over the First Island Chain. U.S. officials assert that China currently lacks a global-range bomber, but the H-20's introduction could shift the balance of power. The bomber is expected to be operational within the next few years, posing a significant threat to U.S. military interests in the region.

On February 12, 2026, Russia formalized its military presence in the Sahel by signing a strategic agreement with Burkina Faso, focusing on security and counter-terrorism. This agreement marks a transition from private military contractor involvement to state-level cooperation, with Russian forces now operating under a formal diplomatic framework. The presence of Russian military personnel is increasing in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, as Moscow seeks to enhance its influence in the region amid a withdrawal of Western forces.

Marie DuboisSat Feb 14 2026Loading...

The Congo (DRC) government accepted ceasefire principles proposed by Angola regarding the conflict with the M23 movement. This decision was announced on February 13, 2023, as part of efforts to de-escalate tensions in the eastern regions of North Kivu and South Kivu. Angola's proposal includes a ceasefire starting February 18, 2026, following a significant escalation in violence since January 2025, which has resulted in numerous civilian casualties and displacements.

Russia has secured its first export customer for the Su-57 stealth fighter, with Algeria reportedly purchasing 14 units. This acquisition raises concerns among U.S. officials regarding military exports and potential sanctions. The deal is significant given Russia's limited production capacity, with only about 21 Su-57s expected by late 2025. The situation also intersects with ongoing regional diplomatic discussions over Western Sahara.

On February 3, 2023, U.S. Secretary of State Nick Checker arrived in Bamako to discuss counter-terrorism cooperation and economic relations with Mali's Foreign Minister. The U.S. is shifting its strategy in the Sahel, moving away from democracy promotion and focusing on intelligence sharing and potential arms supplies to combat jihadist threats. Russian contractors are currently operating in the region, complicating the security landscape.

Marie DuboisWed Feb 11 2026Loading...

Turkish President Erdoğan visited Saudi Arabia and Egypt to enhance defense ties. In Saudi Arabia, discussions focused on joint investment in the KAAN fighter jet program, while Turkey and Egypt signed a Military Framework Agreement to expand defense cooperation. Egypt will acquire the MKE TOLGA Close-In Air Defense System as part of a broader $350 million defense package, signaling a shift towards long-term industrial cooperation.

Algeria received two Su-57 stealth fighters from Russia in November 2025, part of a larger deal for 12 Su-57s and 14 Su-34s worth approximately $2 billion. This marks Algeria as the first foreign customer for the Su-57, raising concerns about regional military balance and potential U.S. sanctions. The arms acquisition is viewed as a strategic move to enhance Algeria's military capabilities amid ongoing tensions with Morocco.

Alexandra ReevesTue Feb 10 2026Loading...

On February 10, the Chinese Ministry of Defense reiterated its commitment to being a reliable partner for African nations in military cooperation. The ministry highlighted the long-standing relationship since the 1950s, emphasizing joint training, peacekeeping, and humanitarian efforts. China aims to strengthen its strategic partnerships with African countries to promote mutual development and security.

On February 7, 2025, U.S. officials engaged with the Malian junta in Bamako, marking a shift in U.S. policy after years of military cooperation suspension. The U.S. aims to address security threats, particularly from jihadist groups, while navigating the presence of Russian mercenaries in the region. Recent attacks have resulted in significant casualties among Nigerien soldiers, highlighting the ongoing instability in the Sahel.

Marie DuboisMon Feb 09 2026Loading...

The U.S. Navy is facing a submarine crisis, with its attack boat fleet projected to decline to 47 hulls by 2028. To address this, the Navy is shifting towards unmanned underwater vehicles (UUVs) for persistent ISR and seabed warfare, aiming to maintain operational effectiveness in the Western Pacific. This strategic pivot is necessary as older submarines retire faster than new ones are delivered, highlighting the need for a robust unmanned layer to support naval operations.

Egypt has developed a range of military capabilities, including over 1,000 Walid armored vehicles and various aircraft, while Saudi Arabia and the UAE are significantly expanding their defense industries. Saudi Arabian Military Industries (SAMI) aims to ensure 50% of military spending occurs domestically by 2030, and EDGE Group in the UAE is consolidating defense enterprises to enhance capabilities and pursue international markets. Both countries are leveraging their financial resources to modernize and expand their military production.

The USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group redeployed to the Persian Gulf in January 2023, leaving the USS George Washington as the only American carrier in the Indo-Pacific. This situation raises concerns about U.S. naval presence and response capabilities in the region, especially as China expands its carrier fleet. The U.S. Navy faces logistical challenges and potential strategic vulnerabilities due to insufficient carrier numbers and ongoing global commitments.

Marcus ChenSat Feb 07 2026Loading...

U.S. Secretary of State Nick Checker visited Mali in January 2024, signaling a strategic shift in U.S. policy towards the Sahel. The U.S. plans to offer intelligence and potential arms to Sahelian juntas in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, moving away from previous democratic conditionality. This engagement aims to counter the growing jihadist threat and Russian influence in the region.

Marie DuboisSat Feb 07 2026Loading...

The USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group redeployed from the Indo-Pacific to the Persian Gulf in February 2026, reducing U.S. naval presence in a critical region. This shift highlights the U.S. Navy's capacity issues, as only a few carriers are available for global operations. Meanwhile, China continues to enhance its naval capabilities, potentially exploiting the gap left by the Lincoln's departure.

Marcus ChenSat Feb 07 2026Loading...

China is expanding its naval capabilities, potentially operating nine aircraft carriers by 2035, including the advanced Fujian. This shift from coastal defense to blue-water operations complicates U.S. military planning in the Western Pacific. The People's Liberation Army Navy is increasing its activity around Taiwan and the South China Sea, indicating a strategic intent to project power beyond its home waters.

The proposed Trump-class warship, USS Defiant, is criticized for being a 35,000-ton battlecruiser ill-suited for modern naval warfare. It faces significant threats from China's anti-access/area-denial capabilities in the Indo-Pacific, particularly within the First Island Chain. The report argues that the U.S. Navy should prioritize smaller, more agile systems over large surface combatants to effectively counter these threats.

David Lockwood announced his retirement as group chief executive of Babcock International Group on 23 January 2026, with Harry Holt, the current CEO of Babcock's nuclear business, set to succeed him. Lockwood has led the company through a successful transformation since September 2020, and Holt's leadership has resulted in significant revenue growth in the nuclear sector. Holt will initially assume the role of deputy CEO before officially succeeding Lockwood later in the year.

U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth expressed concerns about the vulnerability of the U.S. Navy's supercarriers to Chinese hypersonic missiles in a potential conflict. He highlighted that 15 hypersonic missiles could potentially target 10 supercarriers within the first 20 minutes of engagement. The report discusses China's advancements in hypersonic missile technology and the strategic challenges they pose to U.S. naval operations in the Western Pacific.

The United States may require assistance from European allies in a potential conflict over Taiwan, which could begin as early as 2027. European nations possess valuable military capabilities, including attack submarines and air defense systems, that could support US efforts. However, achieving a coordinated coalition will necessitate addressing legitimacy and providing incentives to encourage participation from various European countries.