Analysis & Reports

Sgt. Michael Emmanuel Swinton was killed during a controlled detonation of an Iranian one-way attack drone at Erbil Air Base, Iraq, on Saturday. A second soldier was wounded in the incident. Swinton, who enlisted in 2017, will receive posthumous honors including the Bronze Star and Purple Heart. The circumstances surrounding his death are currently under investigation.

Axon Vision launched the ForceField, a new protection solution designed to safeguard Israeli forces against FPV drones in Lebanon. This system integrates detection, threat understanding, and rapid response using EDGE AI technologies. It has successfully completed live-fire trials, demonstrating its capability to detect and neutralize aerial threats in real time. The solution is modular and can be integrated with existing weapon systems.

Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) unveiled the HYPNOSIS air defense system, designed to counter aerial threats by disrupting their satellite navigation systems. The system integrates mobile jamming and spoofing stations, enhancing multi-layered defense capabilities. It aims to protect critical assets and strategic infrastructure from coordinated attacks.

The US and Iran are currently engaged in a slow-motion conflict, with the US Navy maintaining a distance due to Iranian missile and drone capabilities. President Trump is contemplating the deployment of ground forces to Kharg Island, despite the risks of casualties and further entrenchment in the region. The report advocates for a strategic retrenchment from the Persian Gulf, citing the overstretch of US military resources and historical precedents of great powers overextending themselves.

Nearly 100 U.S. military personnel were injured in attacks by Iran over the past two weeks, primarily due to multiple strikes on U.S. bases in the Middle East. The injuries, mostly minor concussions, highlight the intensity of Iranian assaults. In response, the U.S. military has conducted airstrikes against Iranian targets for ten consecutive days, aiming to weaken Iran's military capabilities in the region.

An explosion occurred at the U.S. Navy's Fifth Fleet headquarters in Manama, Bahrain, on July 21. Residents were alerted and instructed to remain in shelters following the incident. The situation is being monitored by local authorities.

The Iranian military conducted drone strikes against the U.S. Sheikh Isa Air Base in Bahrain on July 21. The strikes began in the morning and are intended to continue until enemy incursions into Iran are halted.

The Lebanese Army has begun deploying troops to Al-Talil on July 21, establishing defensive positions following the withdrawal of Israeli forces from the area. This deployment is part of a tripartite agreement involving the U.S., Lebanon, and Israel, and affects the villages of Al-Talil, Srifa, and Al-Zahrani.

The U.S. military is adapting to a changing threat environment by implementing a unified logistics picture that enhances real-time visibility of assets. This approach addresses vulnerabilities in supply lines and integrates logistics with combat planning. The technology for this capability exists and is being operationalized to improve efficiency and decision-making in modern conflicts.

The U.S. military is addressing the critical need for a unified logistics picture to enhance real-time asset visibility and combat planning. Adversaries are increasingly capable of disrupting supply lines, necessitating advanced technologies like AI-enabled platforms and mesh networking. This integrated approach aims to optimize logistics and prevent supply shortfalls in modern conflicts.

Baykar and Leonardo conducted joint autonomous formation flights with two Leonardo M-346 airplanes and one Bayraktar KIZILELMA unmanned fighter aircraft in Çorlu, Turkey, in May 2023. The K-SWARM program successfully validated advanced algorithms for crewed/uncrewed teaming. This marks a significant milestone in military aviation, enhancing interoperability and operational capabilities for future combat air systems.

The Iranian army conducted drone strikes on three U.S. military bases in Kuwait on the 21st. The targets included the administrative building and navigation antennas at Ali Al-Salem base, helicopter pads at Udairi base, and U.S. buildings at Ahmed Al-Jaber airbase.

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps conducted attacks on U.S. military bases in Jordan and Amazon infrastructure in Bahrain on the morning of the 21st. There has been no response from Jordan, Bahrain, or the United States regarding these incidents.

The U.S. military conducted a 5-hour airstrike operation against Iranian military targets on July 20, 2023. The strikes targeted command centers, naval capabilities, missile and drone launch sites, and air defense systems in Iran. This operation aimed to reduce Iran's capacity to attack commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, where U.S. forces have been assisting vessels since May.

U.S. President Trump is expected to decide within days whether to expand military operations against Iran, potentially restoring full combat operations. Recent U.S. military actions have avoided strikes near Tehran and Iranian nuclear facilities. Military personnel are on standby for deployment pending Trump's decision, with indications that Israel may participate in any significant escalation.

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched missile and drone strikes against U.S. military targets in Bahrain and Kuwait on July 21. The attacks destroyed a radar system in Muharraq and a Patriot air defense system in Rifa, along with multiple radar and defense facilities in Kuwait, including those at Ahmed Al-Jaber Air Base and Ali Al-Salem Air Base.

On July 20, U.S. Central Command completed airstrikes against Iranian military targets, including command centers and missile launch sites, aimed at reducing Iran's capacity to attack commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. has assisted around 900 commercial vessels in this vital waterway since early May, and commercial traffic continues to flow.

On July 21, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) reported that two oil tankers exploded and caught fire while attempting to navigate the dangerous route through the Strait of Hormuz. The incident forced the vessels to halt operations, and rescue personnel assisted in evacuating the crew. The IRGC warned shipping companies to avoid U.S. misinformation and stated that the Strait would remain closed as long as U.S. military presence continues.

Multiple explosions were reported in Iran's Hormozgan and Sistan-Baluchestan provinces from the evening of July 20 to the early hours of July 21, with at least 14 explosions heard in Chabahar and Konarak. The Iranian Armed Forces activated air defense systems in response, and additional explosions were noted in Shiraz and Isfahan. U.S. Central Command announced new strikes against Iran on July 20.

The Saudi-led coalition has initiated protective measures for member state vessels in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as of July 20, responding to threats from Houthi forces in Yemen. The coalition's spokesperson stated that they will act decisively against any threats, following the Houthis' announcement of a maritime blockade against Saudi Arabia. Tensions have escalated due to recent airstrikes on Sana'a International Airport, attributed to the coalition.