Analysis & Reports

The Algerian Armed Forces conducted a counter-terrorism operation in Tebessa province from March 12 to 13, 2023, resulting in the deaths of 7 terrorists and 3 soldiers. The operation reflects Algeria's ongoing efforts to combat terrorism, despite a generally stable security situation in major cities.

NATO conducted Exercise Cold Response 2026 in Norway, involving 25,000 troops from 14 nations, to demonstrate allied interoperability. U.S. officials emphasized a 2027 deadline for Europe to lead its own defense, prompting significant military budget increases across European nations. Germany allocated €377 billion for military procurement, while Poland and Norway raised their defense spending. Concurrently, the EU announced plans for a European air and space shield by mid-2026, reflecting a shift towards strategic autonomy in European defense.

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U.S. officials at the Pentagon announced that Europe must be capable of leading its own conventional defense within NATO by 2027. This declaration follows increased defense spending by European nations since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, although U.S. officials expressed dissatisfaction with the current pace of capability development.

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On March 13, Japanese scholars and politicians gathered in Tokyo to oppose the government's plans for military expansion and constitutional amendments, urging adherence to the 'peace constitution'. They expressed concerns about the potential societal impacts of increased defense spending, which could affect social welfare and education budgets. A rally on March 10 saw around 8000 participants advocating for the protection of the constitution.

The U.S. Treasury Department announced the lifting of sanctions on Russian oil, effective March 12, allowing countries to purchase oil from Russian ships at sea. Experts predict this could provide Russia with up to $10 billion a month, potentially bolstering its military efforts in Ukraine. The decision has drawn criticism from European allies and U.S. lawmakers, who argue it undermines sanctions and strengthens Russia's position in the ongoing conflict.

The U.S. Department of Defense is implementing multiyear procurement deals to enhance supply chain management and increase munitions production. Michael Duffey highlighted the importance of leadership and investment in achieving these goals. Despite improvements in clarity regarding modernization plans, challenges in supply chain management persist, necessitating a more proactive approach to industrial policy.

Chinese fishing vessels, numbering between 1,300 and 2,000, gathered in the East China Sea from December 25, 2025, to January 11, 2026, forming geometric formations despite adverse weather. This unprecedented mobilization is viewed as a military pressure tactic against Taiwan and Japan, highlighting the strategic role of the People's Armed Forces Maritime Militia in China's Taiwan unification strategy. Experts emphasize the need for enhanced maritime security and ISR capabilities in response to this development.

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The Israeli military destroyed a bridge in southern Lebanon on the 13th, marking the first acknowledgment of targeting civilian infrastructure in the current offensive. They issued warnings to Lebanon about facing destruction comparable to that in Gaza. The bridge was identified as a crucial route for Hezbollah, which has been launching rockets at northern Israel following Israeli airstrikes.

European NATO member states are mobilizing defense capabilities in response to U.S. expectations for burden-sharing by 2027, with projected combined defense spending reaching €392 billion across 2025-26. Poland has emerged as the EU's largest military by personnel, while 75% of defense procurement remains reliant on external suppliers. The UK and EU are negotiating enhanced defense cooperation despite post-Brexit challenges.

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The Hubei ship, a Type 075 amphibious assault vessel, demonstrates advanced capabilities in amphibious operations and air-sea dominance. It can carry numerous helicopters and deploy troops and equipment rapidly for landings. The ship is equipped with self-defense systems, enhancing its operational effectiveness in military engagements.

NATO is restructuring its integrated air and missile defense posture in response to modern threats, with significant activities occurring in Poland and Turkey. The alliance's Operation Eastern Sentry was activated following Russian drone incursions, and NATO successfully neutralized Iranian missile threats targeting Turkey. Political tensions between the U.S. and Europe are influencing defense policies, with the EU aiming for greater strategic autonomy in military procurement by 2030.

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U.S. Central Command executed bombing raids on military targets in Kharg Island, Iran, on Friday evening, as announced by President Trump. This action aims to address concerns over global oil supply and secure shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian leadership has threatened to block the strait, prompting U.S. military responses to ensure safe passage for vessels.

U.S. Central Command executed a bombing raid on military targets in Iran's Kharg Island on Friday evening, as announced by President Trump. This action was taken to address concerns over global oil supply and shipping security in the Strait of Hormuz. Trump indicated that further actions could be considered if Iran interferes with maritime passage. The raid follows threats from Iran's leadership regarding the blockade of the Strait.

U.S. Navy Carrier Strike Groups are conducting airstrikes against Iranian nuclear sites and IRGC missile infrastructure as part of Operation Epic Fury, which commenced on February 28, 2026. The operation involves F/A-18E/F Super Hornets and F-35C fighters, targeting key military assets in Iran. The campaign is supported by advanced munitions and aims to degrade Iran's offensive capabilities.

As of March 13, 2026, U.S. Air Force F-22 Raptors and F-35 Lightning IIs have demonstrated superior electronic warfare capabilities against the Russian S-400 air defense system. The S-400, with a detection range of 600 km, is designed to engage multiple targets but faces challenges from the stealth and advanced capabilities of U.S. fifth-generation fighters. The F-22's low radar cross-section and electronic warfare capabilities provide a significant advantage in suppressing enemy air defenses.

Dr. Andrew Latham evaluates the potential political outcomes of the 2026 U.S.-Iran war, warning that the collapse of the Islamic Republic could lead to a fragmented authority in Iran. He highlights the risk of a leaderless Iran, which may result in a power struggle over military capabilities, including ballistic missiles and nuclear infrastructure. Latham concludes that external interventions may be required to prevent the proliferation of these capabilities.

Chinese researchers at the China Aerodynamics Research and Development Centre identified potential aerodynamic weaknesses in the U.S. Air Force's B-21 Raider bomber using the PADJ-X simulation software. The findings, based on public design information, suggest theoretical improvements but are limited by the lack of access to classified data. This research highlights the ongoing military competition between the U.S. and China in aerospace capabilities.

The Afghan National Defense Ministry conducted a drone strike on a significant military center in Islamabad at 5 PM local time on the 13th, causing severe casualties and property damage. Pakistani security forces successfully intercepted two drones operated by a terrorist organization, resulting in minor damage from debris.

Six crew members died in a KC-135 crash in Iraq on Thursday, part of Operation Epic Fury. The crash was confirmed not to be caused by hostile or friendly fire. The aircraft lacked parachutes, which were removed from KC-135s nearly two decades ago to save costs. This incident marks a significant loss for the U.S. Air Force, which has faced challenges in modernizing its aging fleet.

NATO is revising its integrated air and missile defense plans due to simultaneous threats from Russian hybrid warfare and Iranian missile strikes. The transformation, announced by Gen. Alex Grynkewich on March 12, 2026, includes the establishment of Operation Eastern Sentry following drone incursions into Poland. The new plans aim to enhance air defense capabilities across Europe, addressing vulnerabilities exposed by recent conflicts and increasing defense spending among member states.

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