Analysis & Reports

Ethiopian National Defense Forces engaged in armed conflict with the Tigray People's Liberation Front in northern Ethiopia, which began on September 23, 2023. The conflict has led to significant displacement, with around 150,000 individuals affected. A drone strike targeted the Tigray TV building, and the TPLF has claimed to be responding to federal forces' actions. Reports indicate external support for the TPLF from neighboring countries.

JNIM attacked the Malian military camp in Dioura on September 10, 2026, resulting in 120-130 soldiers killed and over 100 taken hostage. Following this, JNIM conducted airstrikes on the military airport in Sévaré, claiming 33 pro-government forces killed. The situation reflects a coordinated offensive against Malian forces, highlighting vulnerabilities in their operational capabilities.

Marie DuboisTue Sep 29 2026Loading...

The Malian Armed Forces (FAMa) neutralized at least 50 combatants in an operation near Abeïbara on September 26, 2026. This action, based on precise intelligence, marks a significant military engagement against armed groups in the Kidal region. The operation's success is critical for maintaining control over strategic routes and preventing the reconstitution of combatant forces.

Marie DuboisTue Sep 29 2026Loading...

Intense fighting continues between the Sudanese Armed Forces and Rapid Support Forces in Kordofan and Darfur, with significant casualties reported. Since mid-September 2023, the Sudanese Armed Forces have conducted large-scale military operations, advancing their front lines. Both sides are increasingly utilizing drones, with over 110 drones reportedly shot down by the Sudanese Armed Forces this year. The conflict has resulted in over 59,000 deaths since its escalation in April 2023.

EU officials called for an increased military presence in the Red Sea during a defense ministers' meeting in Brussels on September 28, 2023, to enhance maritime security. They also discussed advancing financial aid to Ukraine to address its current funding gap, following the EU's approval of a €90 billion loan for military and financial support.

On September 23, 2026, two attacks attributed to ISIS resulted in the deaths of 57 Nigerien soldiers in Dabaga and Abala-Filingué. The attacks underscore the Nigerien military's vulnerabilities in protecting its forces and maintaining operational control. Reports indicate missing soldiers and the evacuation of bodies to Tahoua and Niamey, highlighting significant operational challenges for the Nigerien Armed Forces.

Marie DuboisMon Sep 28 2026Loading...

European Union naval forces are increasing their presence in the Red Sea to over 10 ships as part of Operation Aspidis, responding to escalating Houthi attacks. This decision, made on September 28, 2026, follows Italy's request for reinforcements after its frigate escorted a commercial vessel. The operation aims to secure vital trade routes, but logistical challenges remain in maintaining effective naval operations against Houthi threats.

Ahmed Al-RashidMon Sep 28 2026Loading...

The Chinese 6th Batch Peacekeeping Helicopter Unit successfully completed transportation tasks for UN forces in Abyei on the 27th, conducting 20 helicopter sorties over 25 hours. They transported 220 personnel and 4.3 tons of equipment, overcoming challenging weather conditions. This operation is part of their ongoing commitment to support UN peacekeeping efforts.

Seven armed groups in Ethiopia, including the TPLF, formed the Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival to oppose Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government. This coalition, announced on September 28, 2026, aims to address the fragmentation of the country and could lead to increased military tensions. The Ethiopian government recognizes the coalition's formation but asserts its control over Addis Ababa.

Marie DuboisMon Sep 28 2026Loading...

Boko Haram and ISWAP attacked the village of Wumbi on September 21, 2026, resulting in five fatalities, including a militia leader. The assault caused significant civilian displacement and highlighted vulnerabilities in local security. Concurrently, the Nigerian Army repelled an ISWAP attack in Pulka on September 7, 2026, maintaining their positions with air support.

Marie DuboisSun Sep 27 2026Loading...

On September 27, 2023, the Rapid Support Forces conducted a drone attack on a strategic fuel depot near Wad Madani, igniting a fire. The depot, located approximately 20 kilometers northeast of the city, is one of Sudan's key fuel storage facilities. Firefighters are currently working to extinguish the blaze, and the extent of casualties and material losses remains unclear.

JNIM and ISSP are actively targeting gold mines in Inata and the Liptako-Gourma region, controlling supply routes and taxing miners. The groups have established operational control since June 2026, exploiting the local economy and recruiting from vulnerable communities. A recent attack on the Dioura military camp resulted in significant casualties, highlighting the operational challenges faced by local forces.

Marie DuboisSat Sep 26 2026Loading...

On September 25, 2023, the Sudanese Armed Forces regained control of the strategic town of Sodari from the Rapid Support Forces after intense fighting, which resulted in significant losses for the enemy. Sodari is located approximately 200 kilometers northwest of El Obeid, the capital of North Kordofan, and serves as a crucial transportation route between central Sudan and western Darfur. The conflict in the Kordofan region has escalated since July 2023, contributing to over 59,000 deaths in the ongoing armed conflict.

The SR-71 Blackbird, operated by the U.S. Air Force, was designed to leak JP-7 fuel on the ground as part of its operational design. It was capable of high-speed reconnaissance, photographing vast areas from 80,000 feet. Notably, it achieved speeds of Mach 3.55 during missions, including a flight over Libya. The aircraft's unique fuel system necessitated aerial refueling shortly after takeoff.

Diomaye Faye addressed the UN General Assembly in September 2026, calling for enhanced regional cooperation to combat terrorism in the Sahel. He highlighted the recent attack by JNIM on a Malian military camp, which resulted in numerous casualties, underscoring the urgent need for a coordinated security response. Faye's remarks reflect the challenges faced by Senegal and the broader region due to the transnational nature of terrorist threats.

Marie DuboisFri Sep 25 2026Loading...

In 2026, armed groups, particularly Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and Islamic State Sahel Province (ISSP), increased incursions across the Nigeria-Sahel border, notably in Katsina, Sokoto, and Kebbi. The relationship between Nigeria and the Sahel States Alliance (AES) has deteriorated, complicating military coordination. The region has seen a rise in terrorist incidents, with a notable increase in violence and operational challenges for local forces.

Marie DuboisFri Sep 25 2026Loading...

A Chinese HQ-17 short-range air defense system has been spotted in camouflage matching Algerian military vehicles, suggesting it is on its way to Algeria. This system is a Chinese adaptation of the Russian Tor-M1 and is designed to protect against low-flying threats. Algeria operates a significant air defense network that incorporates both Russian and Chinese systems, enhancing its military capabilities in the region.

Jihadist groups, including JNIM and the Islamic State in the Sahel, have increased their operations in the Nigeria-Niger-Benin triangle, resulting in 504 deaths in 2026. The Nigerian Armed Forces have responded by launching Operation Savannah Shield and increasing troop numbers by 28,000. Attacks on oil pipelines and the exploitation of weak border areas pose significant security challenges for the region.

Marie DuboisThu Sep 24 2026Loading...

JNIM has imposed a blockade on Bamako since April 28, 2026, destroying over 300 fuel trucks and disrupting supply routes. The blockade has forced armed escorts for transport vehicles, significantly impacting fuel availability in the capital. JNIM's actions are accompanied by coercive public rules, while their coalition with the FLA adds to the threat against Bamako.

Marie DuboisThu Sep 24 2026Loading...

Ethiopia's military has received at least two Chinese-made FK-2000 air defense systems, likely delivered through the UAE, for deployment around Bahir Dar Airport. These systems are intended to protect Ethiopian National Defense Forces' aircraft and drones amid ongoing conflict with Fano militias in the Amhara region. The FK-2000 is designed to counter various aerial threats, including drones and missiles.