Analysis & Reports

North Korea sent 14,000-15,000 soldiers to Russia's Kursk region in 2024 to assist in the Ukraine conflict. Additionally, a missile unit was deployed to western Russia, marking North Korea's significant military involvement since the Korean War. This military cooperation occurs amid a geopolitical bidding war between China and Russia for North Korea's support on various policy objectives.

Russia's military aviation lost approximately 13 aircraft over five weeks, including seven Su-34 fighter-bombers destroyed by Ukrainian strikes. A Tu-95MS strategic bomber crashed during a training flight, killing six crew members. Ukrainian missiles targeted air bases, leading to significant losses of Su-34s and other aircraft. The Su-34 remains the most frequently lost aircraft type in the conflict.

On October 30, 2023, Ukraine launched attacks on multiple Russian oil refineries and a gas facility. In response, Russia continues its strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure. Ukrainian President Zelensky emphasized that Ukraine will respond to ongoing Russian aggression in the energy sector.

Russia is advancing preparations for trilateral talks with the U.S. and Ukraine while opposing any ceasefire that could benefit Ukraine. On October 30, Ukrainian forces attacked three Russian oil facilities, prompting a military response from Russia. Discussions are expected to take place in mid-November in Abu Dhabi, with potential European involvement at a later stage.

Ukrainian Navy struck and destroyed two Russian Su-34 fighter-bombers at Marinovka air base on October 29 using Neptune cruise missiles. Satellite imagery confirmed the wreckage of the aircraft in their designated parking spots. The strike targeted the 11th Mixed Aviation Regiment of Russia, and NASA's FIRMS detected a fire at the airfield during the attack.

The Russian Navy's Generalissimus Suvorov submarine launched a Bulava intercontinental ballistic missile from the Sea of Okhotsk on October 28, reaching a target in Arkhangelsk Oblast. This event was part of a scheduled training exercise, as confirmed by the Russian Ministry of Defense, which stated that the missile successfully hit its target.

A Russian commission has preliminarily decided that the nuclear-powered battlecruiser Pyotr Velikiy is too worn out to repair. The ship has been inactive at a pier in Severomorsk since autumn 2022. Its future is linked to the modernization of the Admiral Nakhimov, with the Russian Navy yet to make an official announcement regarding its retirement.

On October 28, a French Navy Atlantique 2 detected three Russian uncrewed surface vessels targeting the Liberian-flagged container ship Contship Jet in the Black Sea. The drones struck the ship, prompting a rescue operation by Bulgarian naval forces, which successfully saved all 18 crew members. This incident marks the fifth drone attack in Bulgaria's exclusive economic zone this month.

Russian air defense systems are increasingly unable to protect rear areas, as highlighted by the Institute for the Study of War in October 2026. The focus on immediate combat zones has left critical infrastructure vulnerable. This shift in strategy reflects a prioritization of key assets over comprehensive territorial defense, exacerbated by sanctions affecting the quality of military components.

Dmitri VolkovFri Oct 30 2026Loading...

On September 29, a train in Dnipro, Ukraine, was attacked by Russian military drones, resulting in 14 fatalities and 14 injuries, with 6 individuals in critical condition. The Ukrainian military reported the incident, but there has been no response from Russian authorities.

A Russian drone strike targeted the Dnipro train station on October 30, 2026, resulting in at least 14 casualties. The attack highlighted vulnerabilities in Ukraine's air defense and railway infrastructure, with additional fatalities reported in Chernihiv and Kremenchuk. Despite prior threat alerts, civilians remained at the station, underscoring the risks associated with military operations in populated areas.

Dmitri VolkovThu Oct 29 2026Loading...

Russian President Vladimir Putin declared on October 29, 2023, that Russia is prepared for war with Europe but prefers peace, cautioning that conflict would yield no victors. He responded to European concerns regarding Russia's military capabilities and reiterated that Europe has not achieved a strategic defeat against Russia. His remarks came after discussions with Finnish and Norwegian leaders about restoring relations.

Two Russian Rassvet-3 satellites are expected to burn up in the atmosphere after failing to raise their orbits, with reentry forecasts set for October 29 and November 1. Launched from Plesetsk Cosmodrome on July 19, these satellites did not perform any orbit-raising maneuvers and are part of a broader military communications initiative that is struggling to meet its operational goals. Currently, only 22 of the planned 156 satellites have reached their intended altitude.

On October 28-29, 2023, Russian air defense intercepted 613 Ukrainian drones near Moscow during one of the largest drone attacks this month. Concurrently, Russian airstrikes targeted multiple locations in Ukraine, resulting in casualties, including 13 deaths in Dnipro and additional fatalities in Kremenchuk and Zaporizhzhia. The ongoing drone threats and airstrikes highlight the escalating military operations between Ukraine and Russia.

Twenty-seven Ugandan citizens were reported killed or missing after enlisting in the Russian army for the war in Ukraine. This information was communicated by the Ugandan embassy in Moscow to Uganda's foreign ministry. The incident underscores Russia's ongoing recruitment of foreign nationals to address personnel shortages, raising diplomatic concerns for Uganda regarding its citizens' involvement in the conflict.

Dmitri VolkovThu Oct 29 2026Loading...

Smart Shooter delivered SMASH Hopper MG remote weapon stations to an unnamed integrator in Asia for drone and ground target engagement. The SMASH Hopper is a lightweight, remotely operated weapon station that utilizes advanced fire control technology. This delivery follows previous contracts with the Israeli Defense Ministry and highlights the system's military applications.

Defense ministers from Bulgaria, Romania, and Turkey condemned attacks on commercial vessels in the Black Sea during a meeting in Sofia on October 28. They emphasized the need for security and compliance with international law to protect maritime infrastructure. The ministers agreed to enhance intelligence sharing and maintain the Montreux Convention, highlighting the importance of the Black Sea for global trade.

On October 29, 2026, Russian air defense forces engaged in a mass drone attack involving 613 drones targeting Moscow, with 231 intercepted. Concurrently, Russia struck a cargo ship in the Black Sea, allegedly transporting supplies for Ukraine. These actions reflect a strategic shift in Ukraine's approach to overwhelming Russian defenses and highlight vulnerabilities in Russia's military posture. Upcoming negotiations between Russia, the US, and Ukraine are anticipated to be influenced by these developments.

Dmitri VolkovThu Oct 29 2026Loading...

Ethiopia received its first 12 Russian-made Su-35 fighter jets and 4 S-400 air defense batteries on October 28, 2023, as announced by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. The delivery occurred ahead of schedule and is part of an agreement with the Russian government. Abiy described this acquisition as a significant enhancement to Ethiopia's defense capabilities, positioning the country as a leader in military strength among Sub-Saharan African nations.

The Generalissimo Suvorov, a Borei-A class submarine of the Pacific Fleet, test-fired a Bulava intercontinental ballistic missile from the Sea of Okhotsk on October 28, 2023. The missile successfully reached the Chizha test range in the Arkhangelsk region. This launch was conducted from a submerged position as part of the crew's combat training plan.