Analysis & Reports

AI-assisted analysis of military-related information from public sources

301 Ukrainian Drone Against Moscow and Crimea — Testing Russian Air Defense in Summer 2026

301 Ukrainian Drone Against Moscow and Crimea — Testing Russian Air Defense in Summer 2026

Military OperationsLogisticsOperational

Ukrainian drones targeted Moscow and Crimea on June 21-22, 2026, leading to the interception of 301 drones and significant disruptions in air traffic. Four airports in Moscow were temporarily closed, and in Crimea, four people were killed and 28 injured, prompting a suspension of fuel sales. The attacks highlighted the operational pressure on Russian air defense and civilian infrastructure.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovMon Jun 22 2026

Strikes on the Kerch Strait on June 21 Change the Supply Arithmetic of Crimea

LogisticsMilitary OperationsOperational

Ukrainian forces conducted strikes on maritime logistics and oil infrastructure in Crimea on June 21, 2023, targeting seven ferries and air defense systems. The attacks significantly impacted Russian supply routes, particularly affecting the port of Kavkaz and oil facilities. Russian authorities confirmed the strikes, indicating a reduction in logistical capacity for their military operations in the region.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovMon Jun 22 2026
Strikes on Kerch and Chongar in June 2026 Reveal Weakness in Russian Logistics

Strikes on Kerch and Chongar in June 2026 Reveal Weakness in Russian Logistics

Military OperationsLogisticsOperational

Ukrainian forces conducted airstrikes on Russian logistics and military infrastructure in Kerch and Chongar on June 21, 2026. The strikes targeted oil facilities and S-400 air defense systems, aiming to disrupt Russian supply lines. Damage to key transport routes, including bridges, has been reported, complicating logistics for Russian forces. In response, Russia claimed to have downed numerous Ukrainian drones and conducted retaliatory strikes.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovSun Jun 21 2026
The Genichesk Bridge Under Threat Again — Ukrainian Drones Tighten Crimea's Logistics in June 2026

The Genichesk Bridge Under Threat Again — Ukrainian Drones Tighten Crimea's Logistics in June 2026

Military OperationsLogisticsOperational

Ukrainian forces conducted drone strikes on the Genichesk Bridge and air defense systems on June 20, 2026, targeting logistics in Crimea. The strikes also hit UAV control points in Zaporizhia Oblast, aiming to disrupt Russian supply routes. This operation reflects a strategic shift in Ukraine's approach to managing Russian military operations in the region.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovSat Jun 20 2026
Two Foreign Vessels in the Black Sea Became Part of Russia's Logic of Retribution 2026

Two Foreign Vessels in the Black Sea Became Part of Russia's Logic of Retribution 2026

Military OperationsCasualties & LossesOperational

On June 19, 2026, Russian drones attacked two civilian vessels in the Black Sea, resulting in one death and five injuries among the crew. The vessels, flagged from Panama and Saint Kitts and Nevis, were targeted as part of Russia's strategy to disrupt maritime operations and exert control over shipping routes. This incident follows a significant Ukrainian drone strike on Moscow, indicating escalating tensions in the region.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovFri Jun 19 2026
555 Drones Over Russia — Strike on Moscow Oil Refinery Reveals Limits of Air Defense

555 Drones Over Russia — Strike on Moscow Oil Refinery Reveals Limits of Air Defense

Military OperationsLogisticsOperational

Ukrainian drones attacked the Moscow Oil Refinery on June 18, 2026, causing a fire and disruptions at nearby airports. The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed to have intercepted 555 drones, with around 180 targeting Moscow. This incident underscores the vulnerabilities in Russian air defense and the impact of drone warfare on critical infrastructure.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovThu Jun 18 2026
Curfew for Mopeds in Crimea Indicates the Crisis of Russian Air Defense 2026

Curfew for Mopeds in Crimea Indicates the Crisis of Russian Air Defense 2026

LogisticsMilitary OperationsOperational

On June 17, 2026, Russian occupation authorities in Crimea imposed a curfew on mopeds and similar vehicles from 20:00 to 06:00 to assist air defense operations. This measure follows increased Ukrainian drone strikes targeting critical infrastructure, highlighting logistical challenges faced by Russian forces. Reports indicate that fuel shortages and restrictions are affecting military supply routes, reflecting a significant crisis in Russian air defense capabilities.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovWed Jun 17 2026

172 UAVs over Russia and a strike on the oil refinery show the new price of depth 2026

Military OperationsLogisticsOperational

Ukrainian forces launched a significant drone strike on June 16, 2026, targeting Russian industrial sites, including the Moscow Oil Refinery in Kapotnya and a fuel depot in Poltavskaya. Russian air defense claimed to have intercepted 172 drones over multiple regions. The attacks highlight Ukraine's ability to penetrate deep into Russian territory, affecting critical infrastructure and logistics.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovTue Jun 16 2026
Tu-22M3 near Irkutsk shows the cost of wear and tear of Russia's long-range aviation in 2026

Tu-22M3 near Irkutsk shows the cost of wear and tear of Russia's long-range aviation in 2026

Casualties & LossesWeapons & EquipmentOperational

A Tu-22M3 bomber crashed in Irkutsk Oblast on June 15, 2026, during a training flight, with the crew successfully ejecting. The aircraft was reportedly unarmed, and preliminary reports suggest a technical malfunction as the cause. This incident underscores the operational challenges faced by the Russian Air Force, particularly regarding the aging fleet of long-range bombers.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovTue Jun 16 2026
Five Platforms for Geraniums in Belarus Change the Geometry of Strikes on Ukraine 2026

Five Platforms for Geraniums in Belarus Change the Geometry of Strikes on Ukraine 2026

Military OperationsWeapons & EquipmentOperational

On June 15, 2026, Russian Armed Forces launched a massive airstrike involving 70 missiles and 611 drones targeting Ukraine, with significant portions intercepted. New satellite data reveals at least five drone launch sites near the Belarus border, enhancing Russia's operational capabilities. The Shatalovo airfield, located 46 kilometers from Belarus, is a key site with multiple launchers, indicating a strategic shift in Russian military operations.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovMon Jun 15 2026
The Shipborne Tor-M2KM for the Russian Navy Shows the Cost of Drone Warfare in the Black Sea 2026

The Shipborne Tor-M2KM for the Russian Navy Shows the Cost of Drone Warfare in the Black Sea 2026

Weapons & EquipmentMilitary OperationsOperational

The Russian Navy introduced the shipborne Tor-M2KM air defense system in June 2026 to counter Ukrainian drone threats in the Black Sea. This 15-ton system is designed for vessels with a displacement of at least 500 tons and reflects the ongoing challenges faced by the Russian fleet in maintaining operational capabilities against drone attacks. The Tor-M2KM represents a significant development in Russia's military equipment, aiming to enhance air defense capabilities.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovSun Jun 14 2026
5.9 trillion rubles per quarter show the limits of the Russian military economy 2026

5.9 trillion rubles per quarter show the limits of the Russian military economy 2026

Political-MilitaryLogisticsStrategic

Russian military expenditures reached 5.9 trillion rubles in the first quarter of 2026, accounting for nearly two-thirds of federal revenue. The increase in spending, primarily on military operations and procurement, reflects a significant shift in budget priorities, with classified military expenditures rising sharply. The federal budget is facing a deficit of 6.01 trillion rubles, indicating economic strain as civilian sectors decline under the weight of military funding demands.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovSun Jun 14 2026
TolyattiKauchuk and Two Refineries of Tatarstan Show New Price of Russian Depth 2026

TolyattiKauchuk and Two Refineries of Tatarstan Show New Price of Russian Depth 2026

Military OperationsLogisticsOperational

Ukrainian forces struck the Tolyatti chemical plant and two oil refineries in Nizhnekamsk, Tatarstan, on June 12, 2026, causing confirmed fires at all locations. This operation reflects a strategic shift in Ukraine's military approach, targeting critical industrial infrastructure deep within Russia. The strikes are anticipated to complicate Russian military logistics and increase operational costs.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovSat Jun 13 2026
Hazelnut in 24 Hours with Kapustina Yara Shows the Limits of the Russian Threat 2026

Hazelnut in 24 Hours with Kapustina Yara Shows the Limits of the Russian Threat 2026

Weapons & EquipmentMilitary OperationsOperational

On June 12, the Ukrainian Air Force reported a high probability of a medium-range ballistic missile launch from Kapustin Yar, likely involving the Oreshnik missile. This missile has been previously used by Russia and is viewed as a political tool to exert psychological pressure amid military challenges. The situation reflects Russia's attempt to maintain an escalation initiative in the conflict.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovSat Jun 13 2026
The Crimean Fuel Crisis of 2026 Reveals the Weakness of Russian Southern Logistics

The Crimean Fuel Crisis of 2026 Reveals the Weakness of Russian Southern Logistics

LogisticsMilitary OperationsOperational

Ukrainian forces conducted strikes on Russian fuel infrastructure in Crimea, leading to a severe fuel crisis. Key locations affected include Sevastopol and Yevpatoria, where fuel distribution has been disrupted. Ukrainian drones targeted supply routes, significantly impacting Russian military logistics. Russian authorities confirmed the attacks, indicating a 71% decrease in military cargo movement on the R-280 route, which is crucial for supplying troops in the region.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovFri Jun 12 2026
AI in Ukrainian UAVs 50–200 km Breaks the Logistics of the Russian Army in 2026

AI in Ukrainian UAVs 50–200 km Breaks the Logistics of the Russian Army in 2026

LogisticsMilitary OperationsOperational

Ukrainian medium strike drones are disrupting Russian military logistics along the R-280 route, with a reported 71% decrease in cargo traffic. These drones utilize AI for navigation and target recognition, creating a new layer of warfare that complicates Russian supply operations. As a result, Russian forces are forced to adapt their logistics strategies, leading to increased operational costs and risks.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovFri Jun 12 2026

FP-5 Flamingo Strikes VNIIR-Progess from 900 Kilometers Away and Changes the Arithmetic of the Russian Defense Industry 2026

Military OperationsLogisticsOperational

Ukrainian forces launched an attack using FP-5 Flamingo missiles against the VNIIR-Progres military-industrial facility in Cheboksary on June 10, 2026. This strike, occurring over 900 kilometers from the front line, targeted critical navigation systems for military applications. Russia reported intercepting 326 drones but did not confirm any missile interceptions or damage to strategic sites, indicating a significant shift in Ukrainian military strategy towards targeting industrial nodes essential for Russian military operations.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovThu Jun 11 2026
FP-5 Flamingo Strikes Cheboksary and Reveals the Weak Link in the Russian Navigation Chain 2026

FP-5 Flamingo Strikes Cheboksary and Reveals the Weak Link in the Russian Navigation Chain 2026

Military OperationsLogisticsOperational

Ukrainian forces conducted long-range strikes on military and industrial targets in Cheboksary and other locations on June 9-10, 2026. The strikes targeted a factory producing navigation components, crucial for Russian military operations. This action reflects a strategic shift by Ukraine to exert operational pressure on Russian logistics and infrastructure.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovThu Jun 11 2026
Strike on Petersburg: 59 Drones and the New Price of Russian Depth

Strike on Petersburg: 59 Drones and the New Price of Russian Depth

Military OperationsWeapons & EquipmentOperational

Ukrainian drones attacked military and infrastructure targets in St. Petersburg and Kronstadt on June 3, 2026, resulting in the downing of 59 drones. The strikes targeted a fuel terminal and a military facility, coinciding with the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. This operation highlights the increasing military pressure on Russian strategic assets in the region.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovThu Jun 04 2026
73 missiles and 656 drones from Russia against Ukraine show the limits of the 2026 offensive

73 missiles and 656 drones from Russia against Ukraine show the limits of the 2026 offensive

Military OperationsWeapons & EquipmentOperational

On June 2, 2026, the Russian Armed Forces launched a massive airstrike against Ukraine, deploying 73 missiles and 656 drones. The attack included Iskander-M and Zircon missiles, with Ukrainian air defense reportedly intercepting 642 targets. This strike coincided with a Ukrainian drone attack on Saint Petersburg, targeting oil infrastructure. The report highlights the ongoing military capabilities of Russia despite limited territorial gains.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovThu Jun 04 2026