Analysis & Reports

In 2026, the Russian military faces significant economic challenges as 400 oil wells have been closed, leading to a 10% reduction in oil processing. This decline is contributing to a federal budget deficit nearing $80 billion and labor shortages impacting military production. Ukrainian strikes on oil infrastructure are altering the cost dynamics of the ongoing conflict, indicating that the sustainability of the Russian military economy is under pressure.

Dmitri VolkovTue May 19 2026Loading...

Ukrainian forces conducted airstrikes on the Angstrom plant in Zelenograd on May 16-17, 2023, targeting critical microelectronics production for precision weapons. This operation reflects a strategic shift towards disrupting Russian military logistics and industrial capabilities. Russian defense officials reported intercepting numerous drones, but the effectiveness of the strikes on high-value targets remains significant.

Dmitri VolkovMon May 18 2026Loading...

Russian forces conducted 150 assaults and over 100 artillery shelling incidents during a ceasefire from May 9-11, 2026, revealing a significant military operation despite diplomatic efforts. The Russian military's territorial losses and reliance on infiltration tactics indicate a decline in offensive capabilities. Concurrently, Germany strengthened defense ties with Ukraine, signaling a shift in European military support. The overall strategic situation increasingly favors the defender, with Russia's operational challenges becoming more pronounced.

Dmitri VolkovTue May 12 2026Loading...

Ukrainian forces conducted significant long-range strikes against Russian infrastructure in May 2026, targeting key facilities such as the Kirishinefteorgsintez oil refinery and the VNIIR-Progress plant. These actions exposed vulnerabilities in Russia's air defense systems, prompting airport closures across fifteen cities. The strikes reflect a strategic shift in the conflict, with Ukraine demonstrating the capability to reach deep into Russian territory.

Dmitri VolkovFri May 08 2026Loading...

Russia declared a ceasefire from May 8-9, threatening missile strikes on Kyiv if disrupted. Ukraine reported over 1,800 violations of its ceasefire, leading to civilian casualties. Ukrainian forces escalated deep strikes on Russian oil refineries, while NATO conducted military exercises in response to the heightened tensions. Russia launched a record 409 drones in a single wave against Ukraine.

Dmitri VolkovThu May 07 2026Loading...

On May 3, 2026, Ukraine executed a significant drone offensive against Russian targets, including oil infrastructure in Primorsk. In response, Russia launched a counter-offensive with drones and missiles. The conflict has intensified, with both sides engaging in unprecedented aerial exchanges, while Ukraine's strikes aim to degrade Russia's economic capacity. Diplomatic tensions escalated with Russia proposing a ceasefire, which Ukraine dismissed, leading to further military actions.

Dmitri VolkovWed May 06 2026Loading...

In April 2026, Russian forces lost approximately 116 square kilometers of territory, marking a significant setback. Ukrainian unmanned aerial systems conducted deep strikes on the Shagol airfield, damaging multiple Russian aircraft. Concurrently, Ukraine intensified its campaign against Russian oil infrastructure, striking the Tuapse refinery multiple times. President Zelensky announced a reform of Ukraine's armed forces, set to begin in June 2026, aimed at improving military effectiveness.

Dmitri VolkovWed May 06 2026Loading...

On May 5, 2023, Ukraine executed deep-strike operations, launching Flamingo cruise missiles into Russian territory, targeting the JSC VNIIR-Progress facility in Cheboksary and the Kirishi oil refinery in Leningrad Oblast. The strikes represent a significant escalation in Ukraine's military capabilities, with Russia responding with missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian territory, resulting in civilian casualties. Concurrently, Ukraine proposed a ceasefire to commence on May 6, challenging Russia's response.

Dmitri VolkovTue May 05 2026Loading...

Ukrainian drones struck a residential building in Moscow on May 4, 2026, marking a significant escalation in Ukraine's long-range strike campaign. Concurrently, Ukrainian forces targeted Russian naval assets in the Gulf of Finland and conducted multiple drone strikes on oil refineries and military installations. NATO's Exercise Sword 26, involving 15,500 participants, aims to validate combat readiness across the eastern flank. These developments reflect a shifting strategic landscape in the ongoing conflict.

Dmitri VolkovMon May 04 2026Loading...

Ukrainian forces executed a series of drone strikes against Russian energy infrastructure, including the Tuapse oil refinery and tankers near Novorossiysk, from May 1 to 3, 2026. The attacks aimed to degrade Russia's oil export capabilities and were part of a broader deep-strike campaign. Concurrently, ground combat intensified along the eastern front, with significant engagements reported. Ukrainian drones also damaged Russian fighter jets at Shagol airfield, highlighting the expanding operational reach of Ukrainian forces.

Dmitri VolkovSun May 03 2026Loading...

On May 1, 2026, Russia launched a significant daytime drone assault involving over 400 unmanned aerial vehicles targeting Ukraine, injuring civilians in Ternopil. Concurrently, NATO conducted Exercise Sword 26 across eight countries, involving 15,500 personnel and 1,100 pieces of equipment, aimed at validating combat capabilities. This dual escalation highlights the ongoing military conflict and the evolving nature of warfare in Europe.

Dmitri VolkovSun May 03 2026Loading...

Ukraine intensified its long-range strike campaign against Russian strategic infrastructure in May 2026, targeting facilities like the Tuapse Oil Refinery and Shagol Airfield. These operations demonstrate Ukraine's growing drone warfare capabilities and strategic reach. Concurrently, President Zelensky announced major military reforms to enhance personnel retention and institutional professionalism. However, delays in U.S. weapons deliveries pose challenges to Ukraine's military efforts as Russia adapts and continues its attacks on Ukrainian cities.

Dmitri VolkovSat May 02 2026Loading...

Ukraine conducted long-range strikes against Russian military targets from April 28 to 30, 2023, leading to the cancellation of Russia's Victory Day parade. The strikes included attacks on military helicopters in Voronezh Oblast and infrastructure in Perm and Orenburg Oblasts. This escalation reflects Ukraine's evolving strike capabilities and has significant implications for Russian military operations and morale.

Dmitri VolkovFri May 01 2026Loading...

Ukrainian forces conducted extensive drone strikes against Russian oil infrastructure and military assets across multiple regions in late April 2026, significantly impacting Russian operations. On April 28-29, strikes targeted facilities in Perm and Krasnodar Krai, among others, while Russian forces retaliated with missile and drone attacks on Ukraine. The conflict remains intense, with heavy casualties reported on both sides and ongoing military engagements in various directions.

Dmitri VolkovThu Apr 30 2026Loading...

Ukrainian forces conducted a naval strike on two large Russian landing ships in Sevastopol Bay on April 19-20, 2026, as part of a broader campaign to degrade Russian naval logistics. In retaliation, Russian forces launched 142 Shahed-type drones against Ukraine, with 29 successfully striking targets. Concurrently, Ukrainian drone strikes targeted the Tuapse Oil Refinery in southern Russia, aiming to reduce Russian refining capacity. The conflict continues to escalate with significant military operations from both sides.

Dmitri VolkovMon Apr 20 2026Loading...

Ukrainian forces conducted extensive drone operations, striking over 151,000 targets in March 2026 and inflicting 35,351 casualties on Russian troops. Russia's recruitment efforts fell short, averaging 940 new soldiers daily, leading to a projected shortfall of 65,000 by year-end. Ukraine also targeted Russian energy infrastructure, while Russia is reportedly shifting its focus to water facilities as summer approaches. Overall, the attrition dynamics of the conflict are increasingly unfavorable for Moscow.

Dmitri VolkovSat Apr 18 2026Loading...

Ukraine conducted extensive drone strikes against Russian oil infrastructure across various locations, significantly disrupting Russia's oil exports. In retaliation, Russia launched a large-scale drone and missile attack on Ukrainian cities, resulting in civilian casualties. Concurrently, European nations have increased military support for Ukraine, leading to heightened tensions and threats from Russia against these countries.

Dmitri VolkovSat Apr 18 2026Loading...

Russian forces launched a devastating combined drone and missile attack on Ukraine from April 15 to 16, 2023, deploying over 700 strike vehicles and resulting in at least 17 civilian deaths and over 100 injuries. The assault targeted major cities, including Kyiv, Dnipro, Odesa, and Kharkiv, and involved a layered approach to exhaust Ukrainian air defenses. Concurrently, Russia maintains a significant military presence in the Donbas region, with plans to deploy additional troops.

Dmitri VolkovFri Apr 17 2026Loading...

Ukrainian forces conducted over 11,000 combat missions daily in April 2026, achieving a decisive drone advantage over Russian forces. They struck more than 150,000 verified targets in March, significantly degrading Russian logistics and command capabilities. Russian forces faced substantial losses, including 820 personnel and 2,459 UAVs in a single day, while Ukraine's drone operations enabled limited counteroffensive actions and territorial gains.

Dmitri VolkovWed Apr 15 2026Loading...

Ukrainian forces achieved a significant drone advantage over Russian forces in April 2026, executing over 11,000 combat missions daily and conducting 365 verified mid-range strikes targeting Russian military infrastructure. This campaign has damaged approximately 20% of Russia's refining capacity. Concurrently, Russian drone units have established a lethal environment for Ukrainian logistics, prompting the rapid adoption of unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) by Ukrainian forces.

Dmitri VolkovTue Apr 14 2026Loading...