Analysis & Reports

AI-assisted analysis of military-related information from public sources

172 UAVs over Russia and a strike on the oil refinery show the new price of depth 2026

Military OperationsLogisticsOperational

Ukrainian forces launched a significant drone strike on June 16, 2026, targeting Russian industrial sites, including the Moscow Oil Refinery in Kapotnya and a fuel depot in Poltavskaya. Russian air defense claimed to have intercepted 172 drones over multiple regions. The attacks highlight Ukraine's ability to penetrate deep into Russian territory, affecting critical infrastructure and logistics.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovTue Jun 16 2026
Tu-22M3 near Irkutsk shows the cost of wear and tear of Russia's long-range aviation in 2026

Tu-22M3 near Irkutsk shows the cost of wear and tear of Russia's long-range aviation in 2026

Casualties & LossesWeapons & EquipmentOperational

A Tu-22M3 bomber crashed in Irkutsk Oblast on June 15, 2026, during a training flight, with the crew successfully ejecting. The aircraft was reportedly unarmed, and preliminary reports suggest a technical malfunction as the cause. This incident underscores the operational challenges faced by the Russian Air Force, particularly regarding the aging fleet of long-range bombers.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovTue Jun 16 2026

681 Air Target Over Kyiv Shows New Mathematics of the Russian War 2026

Military OperationsWeapons & EquipmentOperational

Russian forces conducted a complex airstrike on Kyiv on June 14-15, 2026, deploying 681 aerial targets, including 70 missiles and 611 drones. Ukrainian air defenses intercepted a significant number of these threats, but the operation revealed vulnerabilities in their defense strategy. The attack also caused damage to the Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra, raising concerns about the impact on cultural heritage.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovMon Jun 15 2026
Five Platforms for Geraniums in Belarus Change the Geometry of Strikes on Ukraine 2026

Five Platforms for Geraniums in Belarus Change the Geometry of Strikes on Ukraine 2026

Military OperationsWeapons & EquipmentOperational

On June 15, 2026, Russian Armed Forces launched a massive airstrike involving 70 missiles and 611 drones targeting Ukraine, with significant portions intercepted. New satellite data reveals at least five drone launch sites near the Belarus border, enhancing Russia's operational capabilities. The Shatalovo airfield, located 46 kilometers from Belarus, is a key site with multiple launchers, indicating a strategic shift in Russian military operations.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovMon Jun 15 2026
The Shipborne Tor-M2KM for the Russian Navy Shows the Cost of Drone Warfare in the Black Sea 2026

The Shipborne Tor-M2KM for the Russian Navy Shows the Cost of Drone Warfare in the Black Sea 2026

Weapons & EquipmentMilitary OperationsOperational

The Russian Navy introduced the shipborne Tor-M2KM air defense system in June 2026 to counter Ukrainian drone threats in the Black Sea. This 15-ton system is designed for vessels with a displacement of at least 500 tons and reflects the ongoing challenges faced by the Russian fleet in maintaining operational capabilities against drone attacks. The Tor-M2KM represents a significant development in Russia's military equipment, aiming to enhance air defense capabilities.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovSun Jun 14 2026
TolyattiKauchuk and Two Refineries of Tatarstan Show New Price of Russian Depth 2026

TolyattiKauchuk and Two Refineries of Tatarstan Show New Price of Russian Depth 2026

Military OperationsLogisticsOperational

Ukrainian forces struck the Tolyatti chemical plant and two oil refineries in Nizhnekamsk, Tatarstan, on June 12, 2026, causing confirmed fires at all locations. This operation reflects a strategic shift in Ukraine's military approach, targeting critical industrial infrastructure deep within Russia. The strikes are anticipated to complicate Russian military logistics and increase operational costs.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovSat Jun 13 2026
Hazelnut in 24 Hours with Kapustina Yara Shows the Limits of the Russian Threat 2026

Hazelnut in 24 Hours with Kapustina Yara Shows the Limits of the Russian Threat 2026

Weapons & EquipmentMilitary OperationsOperational

On June 12, the Ukrainian Air Force reported a high probability of a medium-range ballistic missile launch from Kapustin Yar, likely involving the Oreshnik missile. This missile has been previously used by Russia and is viewed as a political tool to exert psychological pressure amid military challenges. The situation reflects Russia's attempt to maintain an escalation initiative in the conflict.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovSat Jun 13 2026
The Crimean Fuel Crisis of 2026 Reveals the Weakness of Russian Southern Logistics

The Crimean Fuel Crisis of 2026 Reveals the Weakness of Russian Southern Logistics

LogisticsMilitary OperationsOperational

Ukrainian forces conducted strikes on Russian fuel infrastructure in Crimea, leading to a severe fuel crisis. Key locations affected include Sevastopol and Yevpatoria, where fuel distribution has been disrupted. Ukrainian drones targeted supply routes, significantly impacting Russian military logistics. Russian authorities confirmed the attacks, indicating a 71% decrease in military cargo movement on the R-280 route, which is crucial for supplying troops in the region.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovFri Jun 12 2026
AI in Ukrainian UAVs 50–200 km Breaks the Logistics of the Russian Army in 2026

AI in Ukrainian UAVs 50–200 km Breaks the Logistics of the Russian Army in 2026

LogisticsMilitary OperationsOperational

Ukrainian medium strike drones are disrupting Russian military logistics along the R-280 route, with a reported 71% decrease in cargo traffic. These drones utilize AI for navigation and target recognition, creating a new layer of warfare that complicates Russian supply operations. As a result, Russian forces are forced to adapt their logistics strategies, leading to increased operational costs and risks.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovFri Jun 12 2026

FP-5 Flamingo Strikes VNIIR-Progess from 900 Kilometers Away and Changes the Arithmetic of the Russian Defense Industry 2026

Military OperationsLogisticsOperational

Ukrainian forces launched an attack using FP-5 Flamingo missiles against the VNIIR-Progres military-industrial facility in Cheboksary on June 10, 2026. This strike, occurring over 900 kilometers from the front line, targeted critical navigation systems for military applications. Russia reported intercepting 326 drones but did not confirm any missile interceptions or damage to strategic sites, indicating a significant shift in Ukrainian military strategy towards targeting industrial nodes essential for Russian military operations.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovThu Jun 11 2026
FP-5 Flamingo Strikes Cheboksary and Reveals the Weak Link in the Russian Navigation Chain 2026

FP-5 Flamingo Strikes Cheboksary and Reveals the Weak Link in the Russian Navigation Chain 2026

Military OperationsLogisticsOperational

Ukrainian forces conducted long-range strikes on military and industrial targets in Cheboksary and other locations on June 9-10, 2026. The strikes targeted a factory producing navigation components, crucial for Russian military operations. This action reflects a strategic shift by Ukraine to exert operational pressure on Russian logistics and infrastructure.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovThu Jun 11 2026

198 out of 216 drones shot down by Ukraine — Russian "Geraniums" lose pressure economy

Military OperationsWeapons & EquipmentOperational

On June 5, 2023, Ukrainian air defense shot down 198 out of 216 Russian drones and missiles, marking a significant operational success. This event highlights a shift in the dynamics of aerial warfare, as Ukraine adapts its interception strategies against Russian drone attacks. The report indicates that while Russia continues to deploy drones, the effectiveness of its strategy is diminishing due to Ukraine's improved capabilities.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovSat Jun 06 2026
The Hazelnut in Yasynuvata Shows the Limits of Russian Missile Demonstration 2026

The Hazelnut in Yasynuvata Shows the Limits of Russian Missile Demonstration 2026

Weapons & EquipmentMilitary OperationsOperational

Russia conducted missile tests in June 2026, with one Oreshnik missile reportedly missing its target and hitting Yasynuvata in Donetsk Oblast. President Putin characterized these strikes as tests rather than combat actions, raising questions about the accuracy and effectiveness of Russian missile systems. The Oreshnik is utilized as a political tool to convey threats to Europe and maintain a perception of military superiority.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovSat Jun 06 2026
Strike on Petersburg: 59 Drones and the New Price of Russian Depth

Strike on Petersburg: 59 Drones and the New Price of Russian Depth

Military OperationsWeapons & EquipmentOperational

Ukrainian drones attacked military and infrastructure targets in St. Petersburg and Kronstadt on June 3, 2026, resulting in the downing of 59 drones. The strikes targeted a fuel terminal and a military facility, coinciding with the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. This operation highlights the increasing military pressure on Russian strategic assets in the region.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovThu Jun 04 2026
73 missiles and 656 drones from Russia against Ukraine show the limits of the 2026 offensive

73 missiles and 656 drones from Russia against Ukraine show the limits of the 2026 offensive

Military OperationsWeapons & EquipmentOperational

On June 2, 2026, the Russian Armed Forces launched a massive airstrike against Ukraine, deploying 73 missiles and 656 drones. The attack included Iskander-M and Zircon missiles, with Ukrainian air defense reportedly intercepting 642 targets. This strike coincided with a Ukrainian drone attack on Saint Petersburg, targeting oil infrastructure. The report highlights the ongoing military capabilities of Russia despite limited territorial gains.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovThu Jun 04 2026
Corvette "Boiky" near Kronstadt shows 1100 kilometers of the Ukrainian War 2026

Corvette "Boiky" near Kronstadt shows 1100 kilometers of the Ukrainian War 2026

Military OperationsWeapons & EquipmentOperational

Ukrainian drones attacked military and infrastructure targets in Kronstadt and St. Petersburg on June 3, 2026, striking the oil terminal and a corvette in dry dock. The operation demonstrated Ukraine's capability to reach deep into Russian territory, with the drones reportedly traveling approximately 1100 kilometers. This attack coincided with the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, highlighting its strategic timing and implications for Russian military logistics.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovWed Jun 03 2026
14 square kilometers in May show the limits of the Russian offensive in 2026

14 square kilometers in May show the limits of the Russian offensive in 2026

Strategic AssessmentMilitary OperationsStrategic

Russian forces occupied only 14 additional square kilometers in Ukraine during May 2026, reflecting a drastic decline in territorial gains. From December 2025 to May 2026, they advanced just 40.64 square kilometers, compared to over 500 square kilometers in the same timeframe the previous year. The report highlights a shift in tactics towards infiltration amid increasing Ukrainian counterattacks and logistical challenges.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovWed Jun 03 2026
33 Iskanders and 8 Zircons Show a New Limit of Russian Missile Warfare

33 Iskanders and 8 Zircons Show a New Limit of Russian Missile Warfare

Military OperationsWeapons & EquipmentOperational

On June 1-2, 2023, Russian Armed Forces launched a large-scale attack against Ukraine, deploying 73 missiles and 656 drones targeting military and civilian infrastructure in cities including Kyiv and Kharkiv. The operation involved 33 Iskander-M and 8 Zircon missiles, with Ukrainian forces claiming to have intercepted 11 Iskander-M missiles. The assault resulted in significant civilian casualties and damage to infrastructure.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovTue Jun 02 2026
73 missiles and 656 drones in one night show the new economy of Russian strikes after Putin's operation

73 missiles and 656 drones in one night show the new economy of Russian strikes after Putin's operation

Military OperationsWeapons & EquipmentOperational

On June 2, 2026, the Russian Armed Forces launched a large-scale aerial attack against Ukraine, deploying 729 aerial attack vehicles, including 73 missiles and 656 drones. Ukrainian forces reported intercepting or suppressing 40 missiles and 602 drones. This operation reflects a shift in Russian military strategy, emphasizing the use of drones to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovTue Jun 02 2026
205 kilometers to Izvarino changes the logic of the Russian war in Luhansk

205 kilometers to Izvarino changes the logic of the Russian war in Luhansk

LogisticsMilitary OperationsOperational

Ukrainian forces have expanded their strikes on Russian logistics, targeting key nodes in Luhansk and disrupting supply routes. The 3rd Army Corps has taken control of areas such as Izvarino, significantly impacting Russian operational capabilities. This strategy, termed 'Logistical Lockdown', aims to weaken Russian supply chains and has already led to confirmed losses in personnel and equipment for Russian forces.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovMon Jun 01 2026