Analysis & Reports

Burkinabè and Malian government forces, along with allied militias, have killed more civilians than jihadist groups in 2025, with 523 and 928 civilian deaths respectively. The presence of Russian mercenaries has exacerbated the situation, leading to mass executions and human rights violations. Jihadist groups like JNIM are expanding their influence into coastal West Africa, increasing attacks and destabilizing the region further.

Marie DuboisSat Apr 04 2026Loading...

Russian forces in the Sahel, including approximately 2,500 fighters from the Wagner Group, are facing a crisis due to rising civilian casualties and insurgency. Operations have failed to stabilize the region, with violence against civilians increasing. The situation has led to a shift in geopolitical dynamics, with Turkey providing drones to local regimes and other nations like China and the UAE increasing their influence through security agreements and investments.

Marie DuboisSat Apr 04 2026Loading...

The Alliance of Sahel States (AES), comprising Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, officially withdrew from ECOWAS on March 30, 2026, marking a significant shift in regional geopolitics. The AES established a joint military force to combat jihadist groups and announced the formation of anti-terrorist self-defense groups in Niger. The alliance has also pivoted its military cooperation from France to Russia, reflecting a broader ideological shift among its member states.

Marie DuboisFri Apr 03 2026Loading...

Government forces in Mali and Burkina Faso have killed more civilians than jihadist groups, with 1,255 civilian deaths attributed to them from January 2023 to August 2025. The use of armed drones by the Malian army has increased, resulting in significant civilian casualties. The rise of ISIS in the Sahel is linked to the power vacuums created by military coups, exacerbating the security crisis in the region.

Marie DuboisFri Apr 03 2026Loading...

The Unified Force of the Sahel States (AES) launched in December 2025, comprising 6,000 soldiers from Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, aims to enhance regional security. Based in Niamey, the force operates under a centralized command led by General Daouda Traoré. Despite its establishment, the AES faces significant internal challenges, including ongoing insurgencies and the need for self-financing to maintain operational autonomy.

Marie DuboisFri Apr 03 2026Loading...

The Islamic State in the Sahel Province (ISSP) has evolved into a transcontinental threat, conducting a significant attack on the international airbase in Niamey on January 30, 2026. Concurrently, the JNIM group has maintained a blockade on fuel supplies to Bamako since September 2025. In response, the CEDEAO has announced plans to deploy 2,000 soldiers by the end of 2026 to combat armed groups in the region. The Sahel continues to be the global epicenter of terrorism, with ISSP's activities posing a significant challenge to regional stability.

Marie DuboisWed Apr 01 2026Loading...

The Unified Force of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) was launched in December 2025 in Niamey with 6,000 troops to combat jihadist threats in the Sahel. This initiative aims to overcome past failures of similar forces by mobilizing internal resources. However, the security situation remains dire, highlighted by an ISIS attack on Niamey's airport and ongoing challenges from Al-Qaeda-affiliated groups. ECOWAS has also activated a standby force to address the escalating threats in West Africa.

Marie DuboisMon Mar 30 2026Loading...

In February 2026, the ECOWAS Standby Force is set to deploy 2,000 soldiers to address escalating jihadist threats in the Sahel, particularly in Mali and Niger. The U.S. is negotiating an intelligence-sharing agreement with Mali while jihadist groups are employing modified drones for precision strikes. The security situation worsens as Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have formed the Sahel States Alliance, complicating regional security efforts.

Marie DuboisMon Mar 30 2026Loading...

In March 2026, the Nigerien government announced the formation of civilian self-defense groups to support the Nigerien Armed Forces in the Tillabéri region, which has seen significant violence, including 1,300 deaths in 2025. This decision responds to jihadist threats from EIGS and JNIM, amid a backdrop of geopolitical shifts following the withdrawal of foreign military forces. A coordinated attack on February 26, 2026, resulted in the deaths of 25 militia members in Anzourou.

Marie DuboisMon Mar 30 2026Loading...

Lansana Kouyaté was appointed as the chief negotiator by ECOWAS on March 25, 2026, to restore dialogue with the Sahelian states of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, which have withdrawn from the organization. The region is facing severe security challenges from jihadist groups, and Kouyaté's mission is seen as critical in addressing the political and military tensions between ECOWAS and the military-led governments of the Sahel.

Marie DuboisSat Mar 28 2026Loading...

In February 2026, ECOWAS approved the formation of a new counter-terrorism force comprising 1,650 troops from six West African nations. Concurrently, U.S. troops were deployed in Nigeria to assist in counter-terrorism efforts, marking a significant shift in regional security dynamics. The report emphasizes the challenges faced by ECOWAS in mobilizing resources and the implications of U.S. involvement in the region's security landscape.

Marie DuboisThu Mar 26 2026Loading...

The Alliance of Sahel States (AES), formed in September 2023 by Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, is facing a significant disinformation campaign aimed at undermining its legitimacy. Since late 2025, various fake social media accounts have targeted AES leaders, spreading false information and deepfakes. This disinformation is compounded by the ongoing jihadist insurgency in the region, complicating the AES's efforts to establish a stable security architecture.

Marie DuboisWed Mar 25 2026Loading...

In February 2026, CEDEAO military chiefs met in Freetown, Sierra Leone, to discuss forming a 2,000-man anti-terrorist force amid escalating jihadist threats in the Sahel. JNIM has consolidated control over significant territory in Burkina Faso, while ISSP has demonstrated operational sophistication with drone and mortar attacks. The report highlights the urgent need for effective regional cooperation to address the growing security crisis.

Marie DuboisMon Mar 23 2026Loading...

French forces completed their withdrawal from Mali between 2022 and 2025, leaving a security vacuum exploited by jihadist groups like Jama'at Nasr al-Islam wal Mouslimin (JNIM) and the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (EIGS). The security situation has worsened, with increased attacks on national forces and over 2.5 million internally displaced persons. The dissolution of the UN mission in Mali in December 2023 further complicates stabilization efforts.

Marie DuboisSun Mar 22 2026Loading...

Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and Islamic State in the Sahel Province (ISSP) have established operational bases in forest reserves, leading to significant military casualties in Benin and Nigeria. In March 2026, over 120 soldiers were reported killed in various attacks. The U.S. is normalizing relations with Sahelian military juntas, while Côte d'Ivoire faces diplomatic isolation due to its military partnerships with France. This evolving situation highlights the growing influence of jihadist groups in the region.

Marie DuboisSat Mar 21 2026Loading...

The Unified Force of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) was established in December 2025, comprising 6,000 troops based in Niamey, Niger. This force aims to operate across Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, focusing on countering jihadist threats. The AES has validated its operational capabilities through the Yereko 2 mission and has adopted a multipolar approach to military procurement, enhancing its strategic autonomy.

Marie DuboisFri Mar 20 2026Loading...

Nigeria is leading military modernization in West Africa, acquiring 24 M-346FA aircraft and 12 AH-1Z Viper helicopters to enhance its capabilities against Boko Haram. Senegal and Mali are also increasing military imports, with Mali pivoting towards Russia for arms. The U.S. has approved a $346 million contract for precision munitions for Nigeria, while Nigeria seeks to develop local defense technologies with UAE investment.

Marie DuboisWed Mar 18 2026Loading...

The Unified Force of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) operationalized in December 2025, comprising 5,000 to 6,000 troops from Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, under General Daouda Traoré in Niamey. This initiative aims to address escalating security threats from al-Qaeda and ISIS-linked groups. The AES has distanced itself from French defense partnerships, seeking support from Russia, while facing significant operational challenges due to aging equipment and logistical limitations.

Marie DuboisTue Mar 17 2026Loading...

The AES Unified Force, comprising 6,000 troops, was launched in December 2025 in Niamey, Niger, to counter jihadist violence in West Africa. This force represents a shift towards strategic autonomy, moving away from reliance on external funding and partnerships. Concurrently, the ECOWAS Rapid Deployment Force plans to mobilize 2,000 soldiers by the end of 2026 to address the growing threat from armed groups. Recent attacks by JNIM in Burkina Faso highlight the ongoing security challenges in the region.

Marie DuboisTue Mar 17 2026Loading...

In February 2026, ECOWAS announced the deployment of 2,000 soldiers to combat escalating jihadist violence in the Sahel, while the Sahel Alliance, comprising Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, has 6,000 troops. IS-Sahel attacked Niamey's airport, exposing security weaknesses, and JNIM has conducted over 500 attacks in Burkina Faso, controlling significant territory. The U.S. has intensified its military support in the region.

Marie DuboisMon Mar 16 2026Loading...