Analysis & Reports

Ukrainian drones attacked the NORSI oil refinery in Kstovo on June 25-26, 2026, damaging a CDU-5 unit and disrupting 25% of its production capacity. This strike highlights vulnerabilities in the Russian military's logistics, particularly regarding fuel supply. Following the attack, fuel prices in Russia rose by 3%, indicating significant economic repercussions. Concurrently, Ukrainian drones targeted Tula Oblast and Crimea, further stressing Russian military resources.

Dmitri VolkovFri Jun 26 2026Loading...

Ukrainian forces conducted strikes on Russian oil infrastructure in Krasnodar Krai and Ufa in June 2026, leading to a 3% increase in gasoline prices in Russia. This has resulted in significant fuel shortages across most Russian regions, affecting military logistics. The Russian Central Bank's interest rate cuts are being challenged by rising fuel costs, which may impact inflation expectations among the public.

Alexandra ReevesFri Jun 26 2026Loading...

Ukrainian President Zelensky announced preemptive strikes against Russian facilities on October 24, following reports that Russian drones ceased operations along the Belarus-Ukraine border. Ukraine targeted oil storage and refineries in Krasnodar Krai, leading to significant fuel shortages in Russia. Russian air defense systems intercepted 269 drones over various regions, indicating ongoing military engagements.

The Russian Navy is developing the Gorshkov-class frigates, with three currently operational and plans for up to 30. The program has faced significant delays due to engine supply issues from Ukraine and various technical problems. The frigates are equipped with advanced missile systems and designed for anti-air, anti-ship, and land-attack operations, showcasing Russia's efforts to modernize its naval capabilities.

Ukrainian forces conducted strikes on energy infrastructure in Crimea on June 25, 2026, leading to significant disruptions in power supply and transportation. The Russian military is reportedly redeploying air defense systems to Moscow and the Kerch Bridge in response to these attacks. The situation has resulted in long queues of vehicles at the Kerch Bridge and a reduction in train services to Crimea, highlighting the increasing vulnerability of the region.

Dmitri VolkovThu Jun 25 2026Loading...

Gasoline production in Russia decreased by 25% from June 15 to June 21, 2025, revealing vulnerabilities in the Russian war effort. Fuel supply restrictions have been implemented across various regions, and the government is contemplating increasing fuel imports to address the crisis. The situation is exacerbated by Ukrainian drone strikes targeting oil refining facilities, affecting military logistics and operations.

Dmitri VolkovThu Jun 25 2026Loading...

Russian forces took control of the Ivorzhanskoye settlement in the Sumy region on the 24th and conducted strikes against Ukrainian military positions and infrastructure. In response, Ukrainian forces launched airstrikes on a gas refinery and helium plant in Orenburg Oblast, over 1200 km from the front line, causing fires at both facilities. Additionally, Ukrainian forces targeted a drone warehouse in Belgorod Oblast.

Ukrainian Armed Forces conducted airstrikes on a gas refinery and helium plant in Orenburg, Russia, on June 24. The gas refinery, which has a processing capacity of 45 billion cubic meters, and the helium plant, vital for defense and aerospace, were both set on fire. This operation took place over 1200 kilometers from the Ukrainian front line, with damage assessments currently underway.

Ukrainian forces conducted airstrikes on Russian S-400 air defense systems near the Kerch Strait on June 24, 2026, resulting in the destruction of four systems and two Pantsir-S1 systems. Additionally, the Orenburg gas processing plant was targeted, highlighting a shift in Ukrainian strategy towards critical infrastructure. Reports suggest that Russian air defense assets are being redeployed to Moscow and the Kerch Bridge, indicating a potential crisis in air defense distribution.

Dmitri VolkovWed Jun 24 2026Loading...

Ukrainian forces conducted strikes on over 60 Russian military targets in Crimea during the night of June 22-23, 2026, disrupting logistics and supply lines. Key targets included S-300 launchers and various logistical hubs, leading to a significant reduction in Russian supplies. The Russian military is reportedly adapting by enhancing camouflage and deploying mobile groups to counter Ukrainian drone operations.

Dmitri VolkovWed Jun 24 2026Loading...

On June 22, Ukrainian forces struck the Voronezh Semiconductor Devices Plant in Russia, causing damage and five casualties. This facility is vital for producing electronics for Iskander and Kh-101 missiles, impacting Russia's missile production capabilities. The strike is part of Ukraine's broader strategy to disrupt Russian military logistics and air defense systems.

Alexandra ReevesTue Jun 23 2026Loading...

Ukrainian forces struck the Voronezh semiconductor plant on June 22, 2026, damaging a facility crucial for producing components for X-101 missiles and Pantsir-S1 systems. This attack highlights a strategic shift in Ukrainian operations, targeting key nodes in the Russian military supply chain. The Russian governor confirmed the damage, indicating potential impacts on military logistics and production capabilities.

Dmitri VolkovTue Jun 23 2026Loading...

Ukrainian drones penetrated Russian air defenses, conducting over 7,000 strikes on critical infrastructure in March 2026. This campaign has severely degraded Russia's oil refining capabilities, with a reported 20-30% success rate in strikes. The Ukrainian Armed Forces, utilizing the 14th Separate Regiment, have demonstrated a cost-effective strategy that undermines Russian military logistics and operational capacity.

Ukraine intensified drone strikes against Russian oil infrastructure in Crimea, aiming to disrupt fuel supplies to Russian forces. Russian air defense intercepted 301 Ukrainian drones during the night of October 21-22. In response, Crimea has suspended fuel sales to individuals and businesses. Concurrently, Russian forces are launching offensives in the Donetsk region, particularly around Kostyantynivka, as both sides engage in drone warfare targeting energy facilities.

Ukraine allegedly used the AGM-188A Rusty Dagger to strike the Sborka semiconductor plant in Voronezh, a key facility in Russia's missile supply chain. This action indicates a shift in Ukraine's deep strike capabilities towards a more structured and supported approach. The AGM-188A is designed for long-range precision strikes, potentially allowing Ukraine to target critical industrial nodes more effectively. Russian sources are reacting to this development, suggesting increased anxiety about Ukraine's evolving military capabilities.

Alexandra ReevesMon Jun 22 2026Loading...

Ukrainian drones targeted Moscow and Crimea on June 21-22, 2026, leading to the interception of 301 drones and significant disruptions in air traffic. Four airports in Moscow were temporarily closed, and in Crimea, four people were killed and 28 injured, prompting a suspension of fuel sales. The attacks highlighted the operational pressure on Russian air defense and civilian infrastructure.

Dmitri VolkovMon Jun 22 2026Loading...

Ukraine launched a significant drone attack on Moscow on June 18, 2023, targeting the Kapotnya oil refinery, which was hit twice in a week. Russia's defense ministry reported the downing of 555 drones, while fuel shortages began to affect multiple regions. On June 20, Ukrainian drones also struck the Antipinsky refinery in Tyumen, marking a deep incursion into Russian territory.

Ukraine struck the Sborka plant in Voronezh in March 2026, damaging a key facility in Russia's missile supply chain. This plant supplies critical components for the Kh-101 cruise missile, Iskander-K missile, and Pantsir-S1 air defense system. The operation highlights Ukraine's strategy of targeting specific military production nodes to degrade Russian capabilities.

Ukrainian forces conducted strikes on maritime logistics and oil infrastructure in Crimea on June 21, 2023, targeting seven ferries and air defense systems. The attacks significantly impacted Russian supply routes, particularly affecting the port of Kavkaz and oil facilities. Russian authorities confirmed the strikes, indicating a reduction in logistical capacity for their military operations in the region.

Dmitri VolkovMon Jun 22 2026Loading...

Ukrainian forces conducted airstrikes on Russian logistics and military infrastructure in Kerch and Chongar on June 21, 2026. The strikes targeted oil facilities and S-400 air defense systems, aiming to disrupt Russian supply lines. Damage to key transport routes, including bridges, has been reported, complicating logistics for Russian forces. In response, Russia claimed to have downed numerous Ukrainian drones and conducted retaliatory strikes.

Dmitri VolkovSun Jun 21 2026Loading...