Analysis & Reports
AI-assisted analysis of military-related information from public sources
"Not Planned, But We'll See" — Nebenzya and the Ritual of Denying Mobilization Before the State Duma Elections
Vasily Nebenzya, Russia's permanent representative to the UN, stated on August 20, 2026, that mass mobilization is not currently planned but hinted at potential future actions. This statement comes ahead of the Russian parliamentary elections scheduled for September 18-20, 2026, where mobilization could be announced post-election. Ukrainian President Zelensky indicated that Russia might mobilize several hundred thousand troops by the end of the year, suggesting a strategic approach to manage public perception and political stability during the election period.
Dmitri VolkovFri Aug 21 2026Loading...
A Second Blow to TANEKO — 726 Intercepted Drones Did Not Save Russia's Oil Treasury
Ukrainian forces conducted drone strikes on the TANeko oil refinery in Nizhnekamsk on August 19-20, 2023, resulting in significant damage and at least 12 fatalities. Despite intercepting 726 drones, Russian air defenses were unable to prevent the attack, highlighting vulnerabilities in protecting critical infrastructure. This incident marks the second strike on TANeko within ten days, indicating a systematic targeting of Russian energy assets.
Dmitri VolkovThu Aug 20 2026Loading...
Record 637 Drones Over Moscow — Capital Air Defense at the Limit of Its Capabilities
A mass drone attack involving 637 drones targeted Moscow on the night of August 18-19, 2025, with Russian air defense intercepting 791 drones. Three injuries were reported, and civilian infrastructure sustained damage, including a fire at a logistics center. This incident highlights the challenges faced by Russian air defense systems in countering large-scale drone assaults.
Dmitri VolkovWed Aug 19 2026Loading...
Grain War in the Black Sea — Strikes on Izmail and Novorossiysk Reshape Export Logistics
Ukrainian forces conducted strikes on Novorossiysk, damaging four warships and grain terminals on August 12. In retaliation, Russian strikes hit Izmail and Odesa, injuring civilians and damaging infrastructure. This mutual targeting of grain ports marks a significant escalation in the conflict, impacting both military operations and logistics.
Dmitri VolkovMon Aug 17 2026Loading...
The "Kamensky" Combine is on Fire After the Fourth Strike — Key Fuel for MLRS and "Iskanders"
Ukrainian forces struck the Kamensky plant in Rostov Oblast on August 16, 2026, causing a significant fire after the fourth attack on this strategic facility. The plant is vital for producing solid rocket fuel for Russian artillery systems, including the Iskander missile. The Ukrainian General Staff confirmed the strike, and NASA FIRMS reported a thermal anomaly at the site. Additionally, 150 drones were reportedly shot down over the region during the operation.
Dmitri VolkovSun Aug 16 2026Loading...
A-50U Transitioned to Daily Duty — Ukrainian Missiles Forced the VKS "Eyes" into Deep Rear
A-50U aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces transitioned to daily operational duty in response to increased Ukrainian missile threats, conducting reconnaissance over Ulyanovsk and Samara from June 23, 2023. Significant activity included a crucial role in countering a missile attack on July 4, with four aircraft simultaneously deployed on July 7. The operational fleet is limited to about 10 aircraft, highlighting the strategic importance and vulnerability of these assets.
Dmitri VolkovSun Aug 16 2026Loading...
"Flamingo" vs "Dagger" — Ukrainian missile reaches Savasleyka airbase at a distance of 700 kilometers
On August 15, 2026, the Ukrainian Armed Forces launched a strike using the 'Flamingo' cruise missile against the Savasleyka airbase in Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, reaching a distance of 700 kilometers from Ukraine. This operation also targeted the Samara rocket and space center, indicating a significant enhancement in Ukraine's missile capabilities. President Zelensky confirmed the strikes, which challenge previous assumptions about the safety of Russian military installations.
Dmitri VolkovSat Aug 15 2026Loading...
More than 20 Wildberries warehouses in a month — drones are bringing the war to the economy of the Russian rear
Ukrainian drones targeted and struck over 20 logistics centers of Wildberries from July 7 to August 14, 2026, causing significant damage and casualties. The strikes incapacitated eight major hubs and resulted in the destruction of approximately 1.18 million square meters of warehouse space. At least 13 employees were killed, and the company's turnover fell by about 25% due to the loss of logistics capacity.
Dmitri VolkovSat Aug 15 2026Loading...Sheshkaris Stood Up After the Blow — 700 Thousand Barrels and a New Price of the Oil War
Ukraine conducted strikes on the Sheskharis terminal and a naval base in Novorossiysk on August 14, 2023, disrupting Russian oil exports and military logistics. The Sheskharis terminal, processing 700,000 barrels of oil daily, ceased operations, leading to fuel rationing in several Russian regions. President Zelensky emphasized the connection between sanctions and military operations, indicating a strategic approach to weaken Russia's military capabilities.
Dmitri VolkovFri Aug 14 2026Loading...
Moscow rejected the "pause" in the Black Sea — Ukrainian grain exports collapsed by 76 percent
Russia rejected Ukraine's proposal for a ceasefire regarding attacks on civilian vessels in the Black Sea on August 13-14, 2023. This rejection indicates that Russia considers the grain corridor a military tool rather than a humanitarian initiative, leading to a 76% drop in Ukrainian grain exports. The Russian Foreign Ministry emphasized that there are no grounds for temporary measures, reflecting a strategic approach to the ongoing conflict.
Dmitri VolkovFri Aug 14 2026Loading...
Hundreds of Thousands After September 20 — What "Internal Documents" Show About Mobilization
Internal Russian documents indicate a planned mobilization of hundreds of thousands of troops after the parliamentary elections on September 20, 2026. Current recruitment efforts are insufficient to cover significant losses, with estimates suggesting over 1.2 million casualties. The Kremlin's strategy appears to involve mobilization as a political tool to demonstrate support for the ongoing conflict.
Dmitri VolkovThu Aug 13 2026Loading...
"Varyag" Against the Shadow Fleet — Putin Promised Mirror Seizures of Western Ships Worldwide
The Russian Pacific Fleet conducted military exercises involving over 13,000 personnel and 60 ships in the Pacific Ocean, signaling readiness to engage Western commercial vessels. President Putin threatened mirror seizures of Western ships in response to sanctions, emphasizing that Russia would act in any waters deemed necessary. The exercises included inspections of 'unfriendly' vessels, and Putin's visit to the Kuril Islands reinforced Russia's territorial claims.
Dmitri VolkovThu Aug 13 2026Loading...
4 Black Sea Fleet ships damaged in Novorossiysk and the base is no longer a rear area
Ukrainian Armed Forces struck four ships of the Black Sea Fleet in Novorossiysk on August 12, causing significant damage to naval vessels and military infrastructure. The operation utilized Palianytsia drones and Neptune missiles, resulting in three fatalities and 24 injuries. This attack disrupted operations at major grain terminals, indicating a shift in the operational capacity of the Black Sea Fleet.
Dmitri VolkovWed Aug 12 2026Loading...Putin from the cruiser Varyag promises a symmetrical capture of EU ships — the naval war extends beyond the Black Sea
On August 12, 2026, Putin announced from the cruiser Varyag that Russia would respond symmetrically to any European attempts to seize Russian vessels, signaling a potential escalation of maritime conflict beyond the Black Sea. Ukrainian drones had previously attacked tankers in Novorossiysk, prompting U.S. intervention to stabilize oil markets. The Russian Navy is actively monitoring maritime traffic in the Asia-Pacific region.
Dmitri VolkovWed Aug 12 2026Loading...
120 KN-23 missiles and 90 North Korean rocket launchers in Voronezh — a new stage in the military alliance between Moscow and Pyongyang
Ninety North Korean soldiers are integrating into the 112th Missile Brigade in Voronezh, Russia, as part of a military alliance with North Korea. This includes the deployment of 120 KN-23 missiles, with the first 40 already delivered. The KN-23 missiles can strike targets in eastern and central Ukraine, enhancing Russia's military capabilities in the region. This development signifies a deepening military cooperation between Moscow and Pyongyang, with strategic implications for the ongoing conflict.
Dmitri VolkovWed Aug 12 2026Loading...13 dead in Nizhnekamsk — a blow to TANECO changes the price of a deep war
On August 10, 2023, Ukrainian forces conducted an airstrike on the TANECO oil refinery in Nizhnekamsk, Tatarstan, resulting in 13 deaths and at least 75 injuries. The attack, one of the bloodiest since February 2022, targeted a significant industrial site, raising concerns over civilian casualties and diplomatic repercussions for Uzbekistan, as seven victims were Uzbek nationals.
Dmitri VolkovTue Aug 11 2026Loading...
Tobolsk, Ukhta, and Valdai — Ukraine Moves the War to the Russian Rear 2000 Kilometers Away
Ukrainian drones attacked the ZapSibNeftekhim complex in Tobolsk and the Lukoil refinery in Uhta on August 10, 2023, marking a significant escalation in the conflict by striking over 2000 kilometers behind Russian lines. The operations targeted critical infrastructure, including military supply chains, and were executed by Ukrainian special operations units in coordination with internal resistance movements. This represents a shift in the operational landscape, challenging traditional notions of Russia's strategic depth.
Dmitri VolkovTue Aug 11 2026Loading...
S-400 near Gelendzhik destroyed by drones — five Russian air defense systems burned in one night
Ukrainian drones destroyed an S-400 air defense system in Gelendzhik on the night of August 9, along with four other Russian air defense systems and three vessels in the Black Sea. This operation marks a significant escalation in Ukraine's campaign against Russian air defenses, targeting critical military assets deep within Russian-held territory. The attacks included the destruction of radar systems essential for the operation of the S-400, indicating a strategic shift in Ukraine's military capabilities.
Dmitri VolkovSun Aug 09 2026Loading...120 North Korean missiles near Voronezh — Pyongyang shifts from supplier to operator
On August 5, 2026, Ukrainian intelligence reported that Russia is preparing to deploy North Korean missile units in Voronezh, including approximately 90 soldiers, 6 launchers, and up to 120 ballistic missiles (KN-23 and KN-24). This marks a transition for North Korea from merely supplying missiles to actively operating them alongside Russian forces, indicating a new level of military collaboration.
Dmitri VolkovSat Aug 08 2026Loading...Nuclear Umbrella of the CSTO — Moscow Officially Confirms the Possibility of Protecting Allies with Nuclear Weapons
On August 3, 2026, Russia confirmed the potential use of nuclear weapons to protect its allies, as stated by its representative in Moscow. This announcement follows extensive military exercises involving 64,000 troops and various missile tests. The statement reflects a strategic shift in Russia's nuclear doctrine amid evolving European security dynamics, particularly concerning NATO's expansion and Finland's recent legislative changes regarding nuclear weapons.
Dmitri VolkovFri Aug 07 2026Loading...
