Analysis & Reports
AI-assisted analysis of military-related information from public sources
Nigeria refuses any truce with Boko Haram — the offensive that reveals the fracture of the Lake Chad basin
The Nigerian military rejected any ceasefire agreement with Boko Haram and ISWAP on November 5, 2026, affirming that military operations will persist. This denial highlights the sensitive nature of maintaining control in the northeast, where armed groups exploit gaps in military presence. The situation in the Lake Chad Basin remains complicated, with various factions operating independently.
Marie DuboisSat Nov 07 2026Loading...
Nigeria and the AES reposition the MNJTF in 2026 — the return of Niger becomes the issue of Lake Chad
Nigeria is collaborating with the Sahel States Alliance (AES) to reposition the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF) due to security gaps following Niger's withdrawal. The MNJTF, operational since 1994, faces challenges from ISWAP and Boko Haram in the Lake Chad region. The Nigerian Defense spokesperson emphasized the need for a diplomatic approach to reintegrate Niger while maintaining its sovereignty. The situation remains critical as armed groups exploit the security vacuum.
Marie DuboisSat Nov 07 2026Loading...
The Islamic State kills 54 civilians in Mali in 2026 — the massacre reveals the void in the northeast
The Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (EIGS) killed 54 civilians in a massacre in Menaka, northeastern Mali, in October 2026. This incident underscores the group's ability to operate in areas with limited military presence, using violence to exert control and intimidate local communities. The Malian army's response has been criticized, highlighting ongoing challenges in maintaining security and protecting civilians in the region.
Marie DuboisSun Oct 25 2026Loading...IS Sahel kills 48 civilians in Mali — Ménaka becomes the laboratory of a retaliatory war
IS Sahel fighters killed at least 48 civilians in Menaka, Mali, between Sunday evening and Monday morning. The victims included children and the elderly, and the attacks were reportedly in retaliation for alleged cooperation with the Malian army. This incident highlights the deteriorating security situation and the challenges faced by the Malian forces in maintaining control and gathering local intelligence.
Marie DuboisWed Oct 21 2026Loading...Nigeria strikes ISWAP — 103 fighters killed, but the jihadist front expands southward
Nigerian airstrikes killed 103 ISWAP fighters in Borno and Adamawa over eight days, with a joint operation also eliminating ISWAP commander Abdussamad Ohida in Ondo. These actions demonstrate effective Nigerian intelligence capabilities against jihadist forces, although ISWAP's operational reach is expanding beyond its traditional strongholds. The military aims to disrupt ISWAP's logistics and command structure while facing challenges in maintaining territorial control.
Marie DuboisTue Oct 20 2026Loading...Boko Haram strikes Guzamala — 10 Nigerian soldiers killed in a coordinated offensive in Borno
Boko Haram attacked a Nigerian army base in Guzamala, Borno, on the night of October 15, 2026, resulting in the deaths of 10 soldiers and injuries to over 20 others. The insurgents overwhelmed the base, destroyed military vehicles, and utilized seized fishing boats for mobility. The attack reflects a shift in tactics, moving from ambushes to direct assaults on military positions, increasing pressure on nearby garrisons.
Marie DuboisThu Oct 15 2026Loading...A gold mine struck in Sudan — 72 presumed dead and the Egyptian front widens
On October 10, 2023, the Egyptian Air Force conducted five airstrikes on a gold mining site in northeast Sudan, resulting in 72 presumed deaths among miners. This incident, which follows a previous attack in June, raises concerns about civilian casualties amid the ongoing conflict between Sudanese armed forces and the Egyptian military's operations against illegal mining. The airstrikes occurred near the contested Egyptian-Sudanese border, complicating the regional security situation.
Marie DuboisThu Oct 15 2026Loading...
France expels two agents from Niger — the intelligence break creates a void in the Sahel
Two Nigerien intelligence agents were expelled from France on September 16, 2026, amid deteriorating diplomatic relations. This expulsion highlights the collapse of security communication channels between Paris and Niamey, following a coup in Niger and the withdrawal of French military forces. The situation in the Sahel is further complicated by a significant increase in displaced persons, now nearing four million.
Marie DuboisTue Oct 13 2026Loading...ISWAP sends 100 fighters to Mali — the Sahel and Nigeria form a single jihadist theater in 2026
ISWAP is deploying around 100 fighters to Menaka, Mali, and 50 to Nasarawa, Nigeria, as part of a strategy to reinforce its presence in the Sahel. This movement reflects ongoing military pressures and operational adjustments within ISWAP, which is adapting to challenges in the region. The situation underscores the difficulties in tracking jihadist movements across borders and the evolving nature of threats in the Sahel and Nigeria.
Marie DuboisSat Oct 10 2026Loading...ISWAP strikes Kukawa in Nigeria — 10 soldiers killed and the Lake Chad front cracks in 2026
ISWAP attacked the Nigerian Special Forces 101st Battalion in Kukawa on October 7, 2026, resulting in 10 Nigerian soldiers killed and claims of 25 militants killed. The Nigerian military reported that their forces held the position with air support, but the attack highlights ongoing challenges in controlling the area. The geography of Kukawa complicates military operations, allowing ISWAP to exploit local conditions effectively.
Marie DuboisThu Oct 08 2026Loading...Tigrayan rebels launch offensive in Ethiopia — the northern front threatens to reignite war in 2026
Tigrayan rebels resumed offensive actions against the Ethiopian army on October 1, 2026, raising concerns of renewed warfare in northern Ethiopia. The conflict dynamics involve complex political and military factors, with the Ethiopian government struggling to manage multiple fronts. The situation remains fluid, with potential implications for regional stability.
Marie DuboisThu Oct 01 2026Loading...Boko Haram and ISWAP Strike Nigeria — Pulka Reveals the New Test for Borno's Defense
The Nigerian Army repelled an attack by ISWAP near Pulka on September 7, 2026, resulting in one soldier being injured. The operation involved ground troops and air support, leading to the recovery of weapons and ammunition from the attackers. A subsequent intelligence note warns of possible coordinated attacks targeting schools and churches in the region.
Marie DuboisWed Sep 16 2026Loading...Nigeria and Boko Haram negotiate a three-month truce — Abuja's risky bet against ISWAP
Nigeria has been negotiating a three-month ceasefire with Boko Haram since June 2023, following the release of 360 civilians. The ceasefire, which may be extended, is focused on communities near Ngoshe in Borno. However, ISWAP, a rival group, is not part of this agreement, raising concerns about the potential for increased violence. Previous ceasefire attempts have collapsed, indicating uncertainty about the effectiveness of this arrangement.
Marie DuboisThu Sep 10 2026Loading...The internal war between Boko Haram and ISWAP ignites Sambisa — 23 dead in Borno during the electoral campaign
Boko Haram fighters attacked ISWAP elements in Sambisa, Borno, since September 2, resulting in 23 jihadists killed. The conflict has escalated, impacting local politics as an APC gubernatorial candidate's convoy was targeted by an IED and RPG fire. The Nigerian military has not confirmed these incidents, highlighting ongoing instability in the region.
Marie DuboisSat Sep 05 2026Loading...Borno 2026 — two surrenders and a thwarted ambush do not resume the Monguno-Banki axis
On September 2, a patrol from the 151 Task Force Battalion was attacked by an IED and gunfire along the Miyanti-Banki axis in Borno, resulting in the death of three assailants. Two ISWAP fighters surrendered in Monguno with assault rifles and personal items. Despite these events, the Nigerian Army struggles to maintain control over supply routes, indicating ongoing logistical challenges in the region.
Marie DuboisWed Sep 02 2026Loading...The 68th Battalion Is Not Enough — Mallam-Fatori Without Village Chiefs Reveals the Fragility of the Return to Borno in 2026
Governor Babagana Zulum suspended local village chiefs in Mallam-Fatori, Borno, highlighting the fragility of civil return in 2026. He inspected damaged infrastructure and emphasized the need for local governance alongside military presence to ensure stability. The 68th Battalion remains active in the area, but the lack of local leadership raises security concerns as displaced populations begin to return.
Marie DuboisTue Sep 01 2026Loading...The Niamey Mutiny in 2026 Reveals a Niger Dependent on the Africa Corps and Algiers
Nigerien soldiers engaged in a mutiny at Base 101 in Niamey on August 28-29, 2026, taking hostages and attempting to seize key government locations. The mutiny was met with support from the Africa Corps and Algerian military, highlighting Niger's reliance on foreign assistance amid internal strife. The situation reflects a deteriorating security environment and challenges to the current military regime's authority.
Marie DuboisTue Sep 01 2026Loading...Base 101 in Niamey under fire — the failed mutiny of 2026 exposes the fragility of the Tiani regime
Gunfire and explosions occurred around Diori Hamani Airport and Base 101 in Niamey on August 29, 2026, indicating an attack on the Nigerien military. The Nigerien Defense Ministry described the incident as a mutiny attempt, revealing vulnerabilities in the regime's control. This situation raises concerns about internal dissent and the effectiveness of the military's security measures in the capital.
Marie DuboisSat Aug 29 2026Loading...Base 101 in Niamey hit for the third time — the Tiani regime loses its rear in 2026
On August 29, 2026, Base 101 in Niamey was attacked for the third time in eight months, with gunfire and explosions reported near Diori Hamani International Airport and the presidential area. The Nigerien military claimed to have regained control, but the repeated attacks raise concerns about the security of critical infrastructure in the capital. This incident reflects a significant shift in the operational environment, indicating that Niamey is becoming a contested area rather than a secure rear base.
Marie DuboisSat Aug 29 2026Loading...
"The 150 surrenders of Boko Haram and ISWAP in Nigeria do not yet signal victory"
On August 25, over 150 fighters from Boko Haram and ISWAP surrendered near Maiduguri, Nigeria, marking a significant increase in surrenders due to intensified military pressure. The report highlights that while this indicates stress within the insurgent networks, it does not equate to a strategic defeat. The Nigerian military's ongoing operations aim to disrupt insurgent logistics and maintain territorial control in the region.
Marie DuboisTue Aug 25 2026Loading...
