Analysis & Reports
AI-assisted analysis of military-related information from public sources
The internal war between Boko Haram and ISWAP ignites Sambisa — 23 dead in Borno during the electoral campaign
Boko Haram fighters attacked ISWAP elements in Sambisa, Borno, since September 2, resulting in 23 jihadists killed. The conflict has escalated, impacting local politics as an APC gubernatorial candidate's convoy was targeted by an IED and RPG fire. The Nigerian military has not confirmed these incidents, highlighting ongoing instability in the region.
Marie DuboisSat Sep 05 2026Loading...Borno 2026 — two surrenders and a thwarted ambush do not resume the Monguno-Banki axis
On September 2, a patrol from the 151 Task Force Battalion was attacked by an IED and gunfire along the Miyanti-Banki axis in Borno, resulting in the death of three assailants. Two ISWAP fighters surrendered in Monguno with assault rifles and personal items. Despite these events, the Nigerian Army struggles to maintain control over supply routes, indicating ongoing logistical challenges in the region.
Marie DuboisWed Sep 02 2026Loading...The 68th Battalion Is Not Enough — Mallam-Fatori Without Village Chiefs Reveals the Fragility of the Return to Borno in 2026
Governor Babagana Zulum suspended local village chiefs in Mallam-Fatori, Borno, highlighting the fragility of civil return in 2026. He inspected damaged infrastructure and emphasized the need for local governance alongside military presence to ensure stability. The 68th Battalion remains active in the area, but the lack of local leadership raises security concerns as displaced populations begin to return.
Marie DuboisTue Sep 01 2026Loading...
The Niamey Mutiny in 2026 Reveals a Niger Dependent on the Africa Corps and Algiers
Nigerien soldiers engaged in a mutiny at Base 101 in Niamey on August 28-29, 2026, taking hostages and attempting to seize key government locations. The mutiny was met with support from the Africa Corps and Algerian military, highlighting Niger's reliance on foreign assistance amid internal strife. The situation reflects a deteriorating security environment and challenges to the current military regime's authority.
Marie DuboisTue Sep 01 2026Loading...Base 101 in Niamey under fire — the failed mutiny of 2026 exposes the fragility of the Tiani regime
Gunfire and explosions occurred around Diori Hamani Airport and Base 101 in Niamey on August 29, 2026, indicating an attack on the Nigerien military. The Nigerien Defense Ministry described the incident as a mutiny attempt, revealing vulnerabilities in the regime's control. This situation raises concerns about internal dissent and the effectiveness of the military's security measures in the capital.
Marie DuboisSat Aug 29 2026Loading...Base 101 in Niamey hit for the third time — the Tiani regime loses its rear in 2026
On August 29, 2026, Base 101 in Niamey was attacked for the third time in eight months, with gunfire and explosions reported near Diori Hamani International Airport and the presidential area. The Nigerien military claimed to have regained control, but the repeated attacks raise concerns about the security of critical infrastructure in the capital. This incident reflects a significant shift in the operational environment, indicating that Niamey is becoming a contested area rather than a secure rear base.
Marie DuboisSat Aug 29 2026Loading...
"The 150 surrenders of Boko Haram and ISWAP in Nigeria do not yet signal victory"
On August 25, over 150 fighters from Boko Haram and ISWAP surrendered near Maiduguri, Nigeria, marking a significant increase in surrenders due to intensified military pressure. The report highlights that while this indicates stress within the insurgent networks, it does not equate to a strategic defeat. The Nigerian military's ongoing operations aim to disrupt insurgent logistics and maintain territorial control in the region.
Marie DuboisTue Aug 25 2026Loading...The JNIM eliminates Abou Zeid Al-Burkinabi — the fratricidal jihad war spreads to Burkina Faso
On August 17, JNIM fighters clashed with ISIS in the Seno province of Burkina Faso, resulting in the death of commander Abou Zeid Al-Burkinabi and several of his men. This incident marks a significant development in the ongoing conflict between the two jihadist groups, which has escalated since 2019. The area is strategically important, and the death of Al-Burkinabi may impact local recruitment efforts for ISIS.
Marie DuboisWed Aug 19 2026Loading...ISWAP against Boko Haram in Borno — the theft of 40 million naira triggers the fall of Gazwa
ISWAP launched an assault on Gazwa on August 7, capturing the area from Boko Haram after a conflict triggered by a theft of 40 million naira. The fighting resulted in significant casualties for Boko Haram, including the deaths of several senior commanders. ISWAP's control of Gazwa marks a shift in territorial power in the region, while the Nigerian military remains on alert for further attacks.
Marie DuboisMon Aug 17 2026Loading...ISWAP Overwhelms Two Bases in Gwoza — 14 Nigerian Soldiers Killed, Ngoshe in the Hands of Boko Haram
ISWAP attacked and overran two Nigerian army bases in Gwoza on August 11, resulting in the deaths of 14 soldiers. The assault on Ngoshe and Pulka led to the capture of weapons and ammunition, with reports indicating that Ngoshe remains under Boko Haram control. This incident highlights ISWAP's renewed operational capabilities and the ongoing security challenges in the region.
Marie DuboisSat Aug 15 2026Loading...The UN places ISWAP at the top of jihad — the Sahelian convergence tightens around Nigeria
ISWAP is actively conducting military operations in Nigeria, with an estimated 8,000 to 12,000 fighters involved. The group is recruiting from local militias like Lakurawa and coordinating with other jihadist factions. Recent reports indicate a significant increase in ISWAP's activities, surpassing historical ISIS affiliates in Iraq and Syria. The situation is exacerbated by the ongoing jihadist pressure from groups like EIGS, affecting regional stability.
Marie DuboisWed Aug 12 2026Loading...ISWAP kills 8 soldiers in Borno in 2026 — the Maiduguri-Dikwa road becomes the real front
Eight soldiers from the 24 Task Force Brigade were killed by an improvised explosive device on July 30, 2026, while escorting supplies along the Maiduguri-Dikwa route in Borno, Nigeria. This incident highlights the ongoing threat posed by ISWAP to Nigerian military logistics and operations in the region. The attack is part of a broader pattern of assaults aimed at disrupting supply lines.
Marie DuboisSat Aug 01 2026Loading...ISWAP loses 3 propagandists in Cross Kauwa and reveals its weakness in Borno
ISWAP lost three propagandists, including Abu Salim al-Barnawi, during an attack in Cross Kauwa on July 12. The Nigerian military identified the casualties and recovered video equipment, highlighting ISWAP's reliance on media for propaganda. Concurrently, a coordinated attack by ISWAP was repelled at Logomani, resulting in one Nigerian soldier's death. Unconfirmed reports suggest 104 soldiers may be missing following a prior engagement.
Marie DuboisMon Jul 27 2026Loading...Boko Haram and ISWAP Use AI in 2026 — Lake Chad Changes Doctrine
Boko Haram and ISWAP are employing artificial intelligence in 2026 to enhance their tactical capabilities in Maiduguri, Borno, Nigeria. They are using AI tools for training in operational tactics, including improving explosive devices and motorcycle maneuvers. This shift indicates a significant evolution in their military operations, with ISWAP demonstrating superior organizational discipline in integrating these technologies.
Marie DuboisWed Jul 15 2026Loading...ISWAP Fails at Cross Kauwa in 2026 — a Camera Exposes Foreign Relays in Borno
ISWAP attempted an infiltration at Cross Kauwa on July 11, 2026, but was repelled by Nigerian forces from the 19th Brigade, resulting in two soldiers injured. A recovered Sony camcorder revealed operational footage and connections to foreign facilitators. The attack aimed to loot medical supplies amid a cholera outbreak, highlighting logistical challenges for ISWAP. A foreign suspect was arrested and evacuated by the Nigerian air force.
Marie DuboisTue Jul 14 2026Loading...Tillabéri Under Double Offensive — JNIM and ISSP Strike Niger in June 2026
ISSP launched attacks on military positions in In-Ates and Banibangou, Niger, on June 17, 2026, resulting in heavy losses for Nigerien forces. JNIM attempted an incursion at Niamey's airport the following day. On June 30, JNIM conducted further attacks in Makalondi, Torodi, and Diagourou, alongside operations in Burkina Faso, indicating a coordinated strategy between the two jihadist groups. The situation highlights the escalating conflict in the Tillabéri region.
Marie DuboisFri Jul 10 2026Loading...Nigeria launches its wargaming center 2026 — Abuja wants to think faster than Boko Haram
The Nigerian Army inaugurated a wargaming center in Abuja on June 26, 2023, to enhance military planning against Boko Haram and ISWAP. This center aims to improve coordination across land, maritime, air, cyber, and informational dimensions. Despite claims of neutralizing over 13,000 terrorists, challenges remain in controlling rural areas and ensuring effective military responses. The center is expected to facilitate better strategic assessments and logistical planning for future operations.
Marie DuboisSun Jun 28 2026Loading...ISWAP and Boko Haram clash on Lake Chad — 360 hostages released and 5 Nigerian soldiers killed
On June 6, 2026, the Nigerian Army released 360 hostages in the Mandara Mountains after clashes with Boko Haram, which had killed five Nigerian soldiers a day earlier. The Lake Chad region is witnessing intensified competition between ISWAP and Boko Haram for control, impacting local communities and humanitarian conditions. The Nigerian military continues operations against jihadist factions, but the situation remains complex and fluid.
Marie DuboisWed Jun 17 2026Loading...
ISWAP loses 2 commanders in Borno — Nigerian intelligence opens a fragile window
Two commanders of the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), Ismail Mohammed and Abu Umar, defected to Nigerian troops on June 8, 2026, in Borno, near the Lake Chad Basin. Their defection is significant due to Abu Umar's expertise in improvised explosive devices (IEDs), which could provide critical intelligence to Nigerian forces. The Nigerian military is currently interrogating the defectors to exploit this intelligence before ISWAP can adapt its operations.
Marie DuboisSun Jun 14 2026Loading...Boko Haram loses 360 captives in Borno in 2026 — the Mandara mountain remains the real front
On June 6, 2026, the Nigerian Army rescued 360 captives from Boko Haram in the Mandara Mountains of Borno State. The operation, part of the Hadin Kai initiative, highlighted the challenges of operating in difficult terrain, where Boko Haram maintains control over hostages. Despite the rescue, concerns remain about the ongoing threat posed by Boko Haram, especially following their earlier kidnapping of 416 individuals in Ngoshe.
Marie DuboisSat Jun 13 2026Loading...
