Analysis & Reports
AI-assisted analysis of military-related information from public sources
JNIM and the Islamic State escalate violence in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger — 2,845 incidents in 2025 and already 2,145 in 2026
JNIM and the Islamic State have escalated violence in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, with 2,845 incidents reported in 2025 and 2,145 in 2026. The Sahel has become a permanent operational theater for jihadist groups, undermining state control and security. Despite international interventions, stability remains elusive, with over 9,000 fatalities reported in 2025.
Marie DuboisFri Sep 18 2026Loading...Paramount unveils the Mbada in South Africa — the South African armored vehicle targets irregular wars of 2026
Paramount Group presented the Mbada, a light armored vehicle, at the Africa Aerospace and Defence 2026 exhibition in Centurion, South Africa. The vehicle is intended for patrolling and escorting under the threat of IEDs, addressing the needs of forces operating in irregular warfare. However, details on its protection level and operational deployment remain unclear.
Marie DuboisFri Sep 18 2026Loading...
ISWAP deploys 100 fighters to Mali and 50 to Nigeria — the African front of the Islamic State expands in 2026
ISWAP deployed 100 fighters to Ménaka, Mali, and 50 fighters to Nasarawa, Nigeria, in 2026. This movement reflects organized mobility between conflict zones, with Ménaka serving as a strategic location near the Mali-Niger border. The deployment aims to reinforce ISWAP's presence and adapt to military pressures in the region.
Marie DuboisThu Sep 17 2026Loading...JNIM and the Islamic State push Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger towards 3,000 acts of violence in 2026
JNIM and the Islamic State are expected to escalate violence in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, with over 3,000 incidents projected for 2026. Significant attacks have occurred, including a coordinated offensive on April 25 targeting multiple cities. The security situation has worsened, highlighted by the death of the Malian Defense Minister in a suicide attack, reflecting the growing influence of jihadist groups in the region.
Marie DuboisThu Sep 17 2026Loading...JNIM and the Islamic State push the Sahel towards 3,000 attacks in 2026
JNIM and the Islamic State are conducting a significant increase in jihadist attacks across the Sahel, with over 2,145 events reported in 2026, projected to exceed 3,000 by year-end. The operational focus has shifted from capturing capitals to controlling movement between cities, with notable attacks in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. The end of French military operations has left a security gap that jihadist groups are exploiting.
Marie DuboisWed Sep 16 2026Loading...Boko Haram and ISWAP Strike Nigeria — Pulka Reveals the New Test for Borno's Defense
The Nigerian Army repelled an attack by ISWAP near Pulka on September 7, 2026, resulting in one soldier being injured. The operation involved ground troops and air support, leading to the recovery of weapons and ammunition from the attackers. A subsequent intelligence note warns of possible coordinated attacks targeting schools and churches in the region.
Marie DuboisWed Sep 16 2026Loading...Algeria and Mali Resume Dialogue — Sahel Security Enters a Pragmatic Phase
Algeria and Mali resumed diplomatic dialogue on September 15, 2026, signaling a thaw in relations after months of tension. The two nations aim to enhance cooperation on security issues in the Sahel, recognizing the need for joint efforts to address instability. Algeria's strategic position and local connections may facilitate this cooperation, although the effectiveness will depend on involving local actors in the process.
Marie DuboisTue Sep 15 2026Loading...Niger, 27 dead in Niamey — the mutiny reveals dependence on Russia
On August 29, 2026, Nigerien soldiers attempted a mutiny in Niamey, attacking Air Base 101 and the presidential palace, resulting in 27 deaths and around 100 arrests. Russian forces intervened to help regain control of the airport, highlighting Niger's reliance on foreign military support amid ongoing instability. The incident reflects significant fractures within Niger's defense architecture following the withdrawal of Western forces.
Marie DuboisTue Sep 15 2026Loading...Niger 2026 — the 200 soldiers of the Africa Corps reveal the fragility of the army in the face of JNIM
On August 29, 2026, 200 soldiers from the Africa Corps supported loyalist forces in a mutiny in Niamey, Niger, attacking Air Base 101, the presidential palace, and national broadcasting facilities. The uprising resulted in at least 27 deaths and nearly 100 arrests. The situation highlights internal military divisions and the influence of jihadist groups, with Russian forces playing a critical role in stabilizing the regime.
Marie DuboisMon Sep 14 2026Loading...JNIM seizes gold mines in Burkina Faso — the Sahel transforms its deposits into operational bases in 2026
JNIM has seized control of gold mines in Burkina Faso, transforming them into operational bases as of 2026. The group capitalizes on the mining activities to tax local miners and transporters, creating a revenue stream and intelligence network. This situation has led to increased violence in the region, particularly as JNIM competes with ISSP for control over these valuable resources.
Marie DuboisMon Sep 14 2026Loading..."Mondlane pursued for treason in Mozambique — the political crisis opens a second security front"
Venâncio Mondlane faces treason charges in Mozambique, linked to post-election violence in November 2024 that resulted in over 300 deaths. The Mozambican government is accused of using these charges to suppress political opposition ahead of upcoming elections. Meanwhile, the insurgency in Cabo Delgado continues to displace nearly one million people, complicating the security landscape as the government struggles to maintain control in the region.
Marie DuboisSun Sep 13 2026Loading...WACCE warns Ghana in 2026 — the jihadist front from Burkina Faso reaches the West African coast
WACCE issued an alert regarding the jihadist threat from Burkina Faso to Ghana on September 11, 2026. The report indicates that while there are no confirmed jihadist cells in Ghana, the conditions for their spread are present due to ongoing violence in Burkina Faso and population displacement. It emphasizes the need for local cooperation and intelligence to prevent potential infiltration along the northern border.
Marie DuboisSun Sep 13 2026Loading...Algeria deploys four Su-30 to Niger — Niamey becomes its strategic depth in 2026
Algeria deployed four Su-30 aircraft to Niamey, Niger, on August 30, 2026, in response to a mutiny by soldiers. This deployment, framed as military support for Niger, marks a significant shift in Algeria's military policy, allowing for intervention under certain conditions. The move is part of a broader strategic partnership, including energy cooperation, between Algeria and Niger.
Marie DuboisSat Sep 12 2026Loading...Niger replaces its military chief after the mutiny — Tiani secures the army against jihadists
Niger replaced its military chief on September 11, 2026, following a mutiny in Niamey. General Abdourahamane Tiani appointed Brigadier General Mamane Sani Kiaou as the new chief of staff, succeeding General Moussa Salaou Barmou. The mutiny involved attacks on sensitive sites by discontented soldiers, with Russian paramilitary support aiding loyalist forces in regaining control. This leadership change aims to stabilize the military amid ongoing jihadist threats and internal tensions.
Marie DuboisSat Sep 12 2026Loading...Nigeria receives American equipment in 2026 — Washington reduces its troops and relies on local capacity
The U.S. delivered military equipment to Nigeria in September 2026 while simultaneously reducing its troop presence. This shift aims to enhance the capabilities of the Nigerian Armed Forces against jihadist threats, particularly in the Lake Chad Basin. The U.S. strategy emphasizes local partnerships and operational support rather than direct military engagement, reflecting a broader reconfiguration of its military presence in West Africa.
Marie DuboisFri Sep 11 2026Loading...Nigeria and Boko Haram negotiate a three-month truce — Abuja's risky bet against ISWAP
Nigeria has been negotiating a three-month ceasefire with Boko Haram since June 2023, following the release of 360 civilians. The ceasefire, which may be extended, is focused on communities near Ngoshe in Borno. However, ISWAP, a rival group, is not part of this agreement, raising concerns about the potential for increased violence. Previous ceasefire attempts have collapsed, indicating uncertainty about the effectiveness of this arrangement.
Marie DuboisThu Sep 10 2026Loading...JNIM advances in Benin — 11 dead in Mali expose the new Sahel front in 2026
JNIM is conducting jihadist incursions in northern Benin, testing the country's security. An attack in Mopti, Mali, resulted in 11 casualties, including 4 Russian mercenaries. The situation highlights the deteriorating security environment as jihadist activities increase, complicating military responses and local control.
Marie DuboisThu Sep 10 2026Loading...Niger accuses France after the mutiny in Niamey — a crisis of confidence that weakens AES in 2026
Mutinous soldiers attacked a strategic airbase in Niamey on the night of August 29-30, 2026, but were repelled by forces loyal to General Abdourahamane Tiani. The Nigerien government accused France of orchestrating the mutiny, a claim that France denied. Russian personnel reportedly assisted in regaining control of the base, indicating a shift in military alliances.
Marie DuboisWed Sep 09 2026Loading...ISWAP Joins ISSP in the Sahel — 100 Fighters and Drones Open a Niger-Nigeria Front in 2026
ISWAP is sending 100 fighters to support ISSP in Ménaka, Niger, in 2026, utilizing drones for military operations. This collaboration marks a significant tactical shift, with ISWAP leveraging its operational experience from Lake Chad. The deteriorating political situation between Niger and Nigeria complicates security efforts, allowing jihadist groups to exploit the region's vulnerabilities. The alliance between ISWAP and ISSP poses an increasing threat across the Sahel.
Marie DuboisWed Sep 09 2026Loading...China deploys J-16s to Egypt — 6,000 km power projection reshapes Africa’s strategic balance in 2026
On August 26, 2026, six Chinese J-16 fighters participated in military exercises with Egyptian Rafale fighters in Egypt, showcasing China's long-range operational capabilities. The J-16s, having traveled over 6,000 km from China, were supported by YY-20A tankers and other aircraft. This exercise is part of China's strategy to enhance military cooperation and test logistics in Africa, marking a significant shift in the region's strategic balance.
Marie DuboisTue Sep 08 2026Loading...
