Analysis & Reports

In April 2026, the Islamic State Sahel Province (ISSP) intensified its violent campaign against Nigerien military forces, resulting in at least 35 military personnel killed. Concurrently, Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) conducted large-scale attacks in Benin, leading to casualties among both militants and soldiers. Regional military initiatives are underway, with Morocco and Mauritania enhancing their security cooperation.

Marie DuboisSun Apr 12 2026Loading...

Jama'at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) conducted large-scale coordinated attacks across Burkina Faso and Mali between May and July 2025. In February 2026, JNIM launched further coordinated assaults in eastern and northern Burkina Faso. The Islamic State in the Sahel (ISSP) maintains control over the Catupa forest in Northwest Nigeria despite Rwandan air operations. Increased collaboration among jihadist groups is noted, with directives from ISIS's central command to support operations in the Sahel.

Marie DuboisTue Apr 07 2026Loading...

Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) conducted unprecedented coordinated attacks in Burkina Faso from March 22-27, 2026, targeting security forces and civilians, leading to numerous casualties. This escalation coincided with the withdrawal of UN forces, allowing jihadist groups to intensify their operations. The Sahel region now represents over half of global terrorism-related deaths, prompting the Alliance of Sahel States to enhance military cooperation.

Marie DuboisMon Apr 06 2026Loading...

The Sahel States Alliance was formed in January 2026 by Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger to address common security challenges. Malian Armed Forces, in collaboration with Russian paramilitary groups, killed 918 civilians between 2025 and 2026, raising concerns about military strategies. The region is acquiring new military capabilities, including Embraer EMB-314 Super Tucano aircraft and Bayraktar TB2 drones, while jihadist groups adapt their tactics amid ongoing military operations.

Marie DuboisSun Apr 05 2026Loading...

On July 27, 2024, a Russian-Malian column was ambushed near Tinzaouaten, Mali, resulting in the deaths of 46 Russian fighters. This incident marks the largest loss for Russian forces in the Sahel since their deployment. The Africa Corps, which has only 2,500 troops, continues to struggle against jihadist insurgents, revealing significant operational weaknesses.

Marie DuboisSun Apr 05 2026Loading...

African Lion 2026 will occur from April 20 to May 9, 2026, in Morocco, Tunisia, Ghana, and Senegal, testing 43 advanced military systems. Concurrently, AFRIDEX will take place in Lagos from October 26 to 29, 2026, aiming to enhance Africa's defense industrial capabilities. Both events reflect a significant shift towards integrating advanced technologies in military operations and fostering local defense production.

Marie DuboisSat Apr 04 2026Loading...

Burkinabè and Malian government forces, along with allied militias, have killed more civilians than jihadist groups in 2025, with 523 and 928 civilian deaths respectively. The presence of Russian mercenaries has exacerbated the situation, leading to mass executions and human rights violations. Jihadist groups like JNIM are expanding their influence into coastal West Africa, increasing attacks and destabilizing the region further.

Marie DuboisSat Apr 04 2026Loading...

Russian forces in the Sahel, including approximately 2,500 fighters from the Wagner Group, are facing a crisis due to rising civilian casualties and insurgency. Operations have failed to stabilize the region, with violence against civilians increasing. The situation has led to a shift in geopolitical dynamics, with Turkey providing drones to local regimes and other nations like China and the UAE increasing their influence through security agreements and investments.

Marie DuboisSat Apr 04 2026Loading...

The Alliance of Sahel States (AES), comprising Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, officially withdrew from ECOWAS on March 30, 2026, marking a significant shift in regional geopolitics. The AES established a joint military force to combat jihadist groups and announced the formation of anti-terrorist self-defense groups in Niger. The alliance has also pivoted its military cooperation from France to Russia, reflecting a broader ideological shift among its member states.

Marie DuboisFri Apr 03 2026Loading...

Government forces in Mali and Burkina Faso have killed more civilians than jihadist groups, with 1,255 civilian deaths attributed to them from January 2023 to August 2025. The use of armed drones by the Malian army has increased, resulting in significant civilian casualties. The rise of ISIS in the Sahel is linked to the power vacuums created by military coups, exacerbating the security crisis in the region.

Marie DuboisFri Apr 03 2026Loading...

The Unified Force of the Sahel States (AES) launched in December 2025, comprising 6,000 soldiers from Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, aims to enhance regional security. Based in Niamey, the force operates under a centralized command led by General Daouda Traoré. Despite its establishment, the AES faces significant internal challenges, including ongoing insurgencies and the need for self-financing to maintain operational autonomy.

Marie DuboisFri Apr 03 2026Loading...

The Islamic State in the Sahel Province (ISSP) has evolved into a transcontinental threat, conducting a significant attack on the international airbase in Niamey on January 30, 2026. Concurrently, the JNIM group has maintained a blockade on fuel supplies to Bamako since September 2025. In response, the CEDEAO has announced plans to deploy 2,000 soldiers by the end of 2026 to combat armed groups in the region. The Sahel continues to be the global epicenter of terrorism, with ISSP's activities posing a significant challenge to regional stability.

Marie DuboisWed Apr 01 2026Loading...

The Unified Force of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) was launched in December 2025 in Niamey with 6,000 troops to combat jihadist threats in the Sahel. This initiative aims to overcome past failures of similar forces by mobilizing internal resources. However, the security situation remains dire, highlighted by an ISIS attack on Niamey's airport and ongoing challenges from Al-Qaeda-affiliated groups. ECOWAS has also activated a standby force to address the escalating threats in West Africa.

Marie DuboisMon Mar 30 2026Loading...

ECOWAS activated a counter-terrorism brigade of 1,650 soldiers in February 2026 to address the escalating security crisis in the Sahel. ISIS conducted a significant attack on the international airbase in Niamey on January 28-29, 2026, claiming multiple soldier casualties. In Mali, GSIM has implemented a blockade of fuel supplies to Bamako since September 2025, further complicating the security situation. Additionally, around 2,000 Russian fighters are deployed in the region, while jihadist groups are increasingly utilizing drones in their operations.

Marie DuboisMon Mar 30 2026Loading...

In February 2026, Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) launched a large-scale coordinated attack across Burkina Faso, resulting in significant casualties, including 80 soldiers in Titao. The Islamic State Sahel Province (ISSP) attacked the international airport in Niamey, demonstrating vulnerabilities in key security infrastructure. The ongoing crisis has led to a blockade of fuel supplies to Bamako, severely impacting the economy and security perception in the region.

Marie DuboisMon Mar 30 2026Loading...

On January 29, 2026, the Islamic State Sahel Province (ISSP) launched a coordinated attack on Niamey airport, utilizing armed drones and light weapons. In Burkina Faso, Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) executed over 500 attacks in 2025, with a deadly assault in Titao resulting in 80 military casualties. ECOWAS announced plans to deploy 2,000 soldiers by the end of 2026 to address the escalating jihadist threat across the region.

Marie DuboisMon Mar 30 2026Loading...

Since March 5, 2026, the Unified Military Force of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) has been deployed to combat jihadist insurgency in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, with approximately 2,000 Russian fighters involved. The situation remains critical as groups like JNIM and ISSP continue to launch coordinated attacks, challenging government forces. The CEDEAO is also preparing to mobilize 2,000 soldiers to secure borders against jihadist threats.

Marie DuboisMon Mar 30 2026Loading...

JNIM launched coordinated attacks on military posts in Burkina Faso from March 22-27, 2026, resulting in at least 14 confirmed soldier deaths and nearly 20 estimated fatalities. The attacks occurred in multiple regions, including Bagade, and are part of a broader escalation in jihadist activity, with over 130 casualties reported in the region within ten days. This surge raises serious concerns about the effectiveness of the current security strategy in Burkina Faso.

Marie DuboisMon Mar 30 2026Loading...

In February 2026, the ECOWAS Standby Force is set to deploy 2,000 soldiers to address escalating jihadist threats in the Sahel, particularly in Mali and Niger. The U.S. is negotiating an intelligence-sharing agreement with Mali while jihadist groups are employing modified drones for precision strikes. The security situation worsens as Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have formed the Sahel States Alliance, complicating regional security efforts.

Marie DuboisMon Mar 30 2026Loading...

In March 2026, the Nigerien government announced the formation of civilian self-defense groups to support the Nigerien Armed Forces in the Tillabéri region, which has seen significant violence, including 1,300 deaths in 2025. This decision responds to jihadist threats from EIGS and JNIM, amid a backdrop of geopolitical shifts following the withdrawal of foreign military forces. A coordinated attack on February 26, 2026, resulted in the deaths of 25 militia members in Anzourou.

Marie DuboisMon Mar 30 2026Loading...