Analysis & Reports

Drone strikes by the Malian army and Africa Corps killed 94 civilians in Bamako on October 19, 2026. The strikes are part of a military strategy to compensate for a lack of ground control, but they have led to significant civilian casualties, complicating the operational landscape. The jihadist group JNIM is expected to exploit these casualties for recruitment.

Marie DuboisMon Oct 19 2026Loading...

ISSP claimed to have killed over 400 JNIM fighters in Oudalan, Burkina Faso, during clashes in October 2026. The fighting has escalated into a significant battle for control over territory and resources between the two jihadist groups. JNIM is estimated to have 7,000 to 8,000 fighters, while ISSP has around 2,000. The conflict has intensified, affecting the borders of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger.

Marie DuboisMon Oct 19 2026Loading...

Clashes occurred between Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and the Islamic State in the Sahel (IS Sahel) in Oudalan, Burkina Faso on October 9, 2026. IS Sahel claimed to have killed over 400 JNIM fighters, marking a significant escalation in their ongoing conflict. JNIM maintains a numerical advantage with 7,000 to 8,000 fighters, while IS Sahel has approximately 2,000. Control of key routes is critical for both groups as they vie for dominance in the region.

Marie DuboisSun Oct 18 2026Loading...

Representatives from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) met in Dakar on October 17, 2026, to establish joint working groups aimed at improving cooperation. This marks the first structured contact since the breakdown in relations following the Niger coup in July 2023. The discussions focus on creating a framework for cooperation, with an emphasis on enhancing communication and coordination against security threats in the region.

Marie DuboisSun Oct 18 2026Loading...

Sudanese Armed Forces conducted airstrikes in Nyala targeting a Rapid Support Forces (RSF) command center, resulting in approximately 30 civilian deaths. The RSF accused the government of bombing civilian areas, highlighting the ongoing urban warfare in South Darfur. The situation in Nyala is critical as it serves as a logistical hub, and control over the city is vital for both military factions.

Marie DuboisSat Oct 17 2026Loading...

JNIM and EIGS are engaged in intensified clashes in western Niger as of October 2026, competing for control over key routes and resources. This rivalry is impacting local populations and may lead to increased violence. The Nigerien military is attempting to navigate the complex situation as both groups vie for dominance in the region.

Marie DuboisSat Oct 17 2026Loading...

Clashes erupted between JNIM and ISSP in rural Burkina Faso from October 13 to 16, 2026, with ISSP claiming over 400 JNIM fighters killed. This marks a significant escalation in their rivalry, as both groups vie for control of territory and resources. Reports also indicate potential spillover into northwestern Nigeria, raising concerns about regional stability.

Marie DuboisFri Oct 16 2026Loading...

Chad and France renewed military cooperation on October 14, 2026, focusing on training and technology. Boko Haram is testing this new defense pact, with French officers assisting Chad's national intelligence agency and surveillance aircraft operating around Lake Chad. This cooperation follows a two-year hiatus in military relations.

Marie DuboisFri Oct 16 2026Loading...

Boko Haram attacked a Nigerian army base in Guzamala, Borno, on the night of October 15, 2026, resulting in the deaths of 10 soldiers and injuries to over 20 others. The insurgents overwhelmed the base, destroyed military vehicles, and utilized seized fishing boats for mobility. The attack reflects a shift in tactics, moving from ambushes to direct assaults on military positions, increasing pressure on nearby garrisons.

Marie DuboisThu Oct 15 2026Loading...

On October 10, 2023, the Egyptian Air Force conducted five airstrikes on a gold mining site in northeast Sudan, resulting in 72 presumed deaths among miners. This incident, which follows a previous attack in June, raises concerns about civilian casualties amid the ongoing conflict between Sudanese armed forces and the Egyptian military's operations against illegal mining. The airstrikes occurred near the contested Egyptian-Sudanese border, complicating the regional security situation.

Marie DuboisThu Oct 15 2026Loading...

France and Chad announced renewed military cooperation in October 2026, focusing on intelligence sharing and surveillance operations against Boko Haram. This partnership aims to enhance Chad's military capabilities while avoiding dependency on French forces. The cooperation follows the withdrawal of French troops in January 2025 and addresses security challenges in the Lake Chad region.

Marie DuboisWed Oct 14 2026Loading...

Joseph Kabila announced the formation of the Front for the Refoundation of the Nation (FRN) in Goma on October 13, 2026, creating a political-military coalition with the M23-AFC. This coalition aims to end tyranny in the Democratic Republic of the Congo by any means necessary, including military force. The M23-AFC controls key regions in North and South Kivu, complicating ongoing peace negotiations and increasing the potential for military escalation in the area.

Marie DuboisWed Oct 14 2026Loading...

Joseph Kabila was appointed as the leader of a new rebel coalition in the Democratic Republic of the Congo on October 13, 2026. This development may shift the conflict dynamics, as the M23 continues to exert control in North and South Kivu. Kabila's involvement could transform the insurrection into a broader political-military initiative, complicating the situation for the Congolese government and regional stability.

Marie DuboisTue Oct 13 2026Loading...

Two Nigerien intelligence agents were expelled from France on September 16, 2026, amid deteriorating diplomatic relations. This expulsion highlights the collapse of security communication channels between Paris and Niamey, following a coup in Niger and the withdrawal of French military forces. The situation in the Sahel is further complicated by a significant increase in displaced persons, now nearing four million.

Marie DuboisTue Oct 13 2026Loading...

Mali regained control of Kidal on October 10, 2026, without major combat, marking a significant political victory for the Malian junta. The Africa Corps, associated with Russian military support, is involved in securing the area. However, the operational effectiveness remains uncertain as jihadist groups may still pose a threat to supply routes and regional stability.

Marie DuboisMon Oct 12 2026Loading...

Lakurawa attacked a federal road construction site in Kangiwa, Kebbi, on October 8, 2026, resulting in the deaths of two Nigerian soldiers and one Chinese national. Nigerian forces later repelled an assault on a nearby base, recovering 17 motorcycles and weapons. This incident highlights Lakurawa's increasing disruption of infrastructure in northwestern Nigeria, posing a significant threat to security and stability in the region.

Marie DuboisSun Oct 11 2026Loading...

The Lakurawa group attacked a construction site in Kangiwa, Kebbi, on October 8-10, 2026, killing two Nigerian soldiers and one Chinese national. The Nigerian Army responded by repelling the attackers and recovering 17 motorcycles. This incident signifies a strategic shift in Kebbi's security landscape, as it becomes integrated into jihadist activities, impacting foreign investments and local control.

Marie DuboisSun Oct 11 2026Loading...

Boko Haram and ISWAP killed 15 farmers and wood gatherers near Ala and Musune in Borno State on October 10, 2026. The attack occurred as the victims left displacement camps to seek livelihoods. Local sources indicate a system of control and taxation imposed by the insurgents, complicating civilian access to resources and safety.

Marie DuboisSat Oct 10 2026Loading...

ISWAP is deploying around 100 fighters to Menaka, Mali, and 50 to Nasarawa, Nigeria, as part of a strategy to reinforce its presence in the Sahel. This movement reflects ongoing military pressures and operational adjustments within ISWAP, which is adapting to challenges in the region. The situation underscores the difficulties in tracking jihadist movements across borders and the evolving nature of threats in the Sahel and Nigeria.

Marie DuboisSat Oct 10 2026Loading...

The Mozambican Defense Armed Forces (FADM) have been engaged in counter-insurgency operations against ISIS-linked insurgents in Cabo Delgado since October 5, 2017. Despite training over 1,600 personnel, the FADM faces significant challenges in local intelligence and community trust, leading to operational weaknesses. Insurgents utilize mobile tactics to disrupt supply routes, while allegations of human rights abuses by the military further complicate the situation.

Marie DuboisFri Oct 09 2026Loading...