Analysis & Reports

Malian forces entered Kidal on October 6-7, 2026, following the withdrawal of Tuareg fighters. This operation, supported by Russian military assistance, is viewed as a strategic recovery of the city. However, the situation remains precarious, with concerns about jihadist groups exploiting the withdrawal of Tuareg forces and the need for a sustainable military presence.

Marie DuboisFri Oct 09 2026Loading...

Malian Armed Forces entered Kidal on October 6, 2026, reclaiming the city with support from the Russian Africa Corps after the withdrawal of Tuareg fighters. This operation, while a territorial success, presents significant logistical challenges for maintaining control and securing supply routes. The absence of a decisive battle raises concerns about the potential for jihadist exploitation of the situation.

Marie DuboisThu Oct 08 2026Loading...

ISWAP attacked the Nigerian Special Forces 101st Battalion in Kukawa on October 7, 2026, resulting in 10 Nigerian soldiers killed and claims of 25 militants killed. The Nigerian military reported that their forces held the position with air support, but the attack highlights ongoing challenges in controlling the area. The geography of Kukawa complicates military operations, allowing ISWAP to exploit local conditions effectively.

Marie DuboisThu Oct 08 2026Loading...

Nigerian security forces killed Abdussamad Ohida, a prominent ISWAP leader, in a weekend operation in Owo, Ondo State. This operation, involving the Nigerian Army, DSS, and Amotekun Corps, signifies ISWAP's expansion beyond its historical base in Borno. Intelligence suggests Ohida was preparing mass attacks against civilians and aimed to disrupt the upcoming 2027 elections.

Marie DuboisWed Oct 07 2026Loading...

Malian and Russian forces advanced and took control of Kidal on October 6, 2026, without direct combat. This operation involved approximately 120 vehicles and was part of a larger campaign to neutralize armed groups. The FLA withdrew from the city, marking a symbolic victory for the Malian government, although the overall security situation in northern Mali remains precarious.

Marie DuboisWed Oct 07 2026Loading...

On October 6, 2026, a joint operation by the Nigerian Army, Department of State Services, and Amotekun resulted in the death of Abdussamad Ohida, a leader of ISWAP, in Nigeria. The operation's details remain unclear, and the implications of Ohida's death on ISWAP's operational capabilities are still being assessed. The ongoing conflict dynamics in the Lake Chad region complicate the situation.

Marie DuboisTue Oct 06 2026Loading...

Egypt, Libya, and Chad are reviving security cooperation through the Sahel-Saharan Community during a meeting in Cairo on October 4, 2026. This initiative aims to address security challenges in the northern Sahel, although the three nations have differing military priorities. The meeting signals a renewed focus on regional stability amid ongoing threats from armed groups and jihadists.

Marie DuboisTue Oct 06 2026Loading...

The juntas of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger launched a joint television channel in Bamako, Ouagadougou, and Niamey on October 4, 2026, with reported support from Russia. This initiative aims to strengthen their political narrative and sovereignty amidst ongoing security challenges, including recent attacks that resulted in over a hundred Malian soldiers' deaths. The channel will serve as a platform for propaganda and to unify the juntas' messaging.

Marie DuboisMon Oct 05 2026Loading...

Boko Haram attacked farmers in Marte, Borno State, on October 1, 2026, killing fifteen and abducting three during harvest. The assault underscores the dangers faced by civilians in agricultural areas, as local authorities confirmed the casualties and began an investigation. This incident not only results in loss of life but also threatens food security and local livelihoods.

Marie DuboisSun Oct 04 2026Loading...

On October 3, 2026, the Malian Armed Forces (FAMa) and Africa Corps launched a military operation against terrorist positions in Bamako, Mali. The operation's details, including targets and casualties, remain unclear, indicating potential challenges in maintaining control post-raid. Algeria is emerging as a key political player in the region, promoting stability and cooperation among Sahel nations.

Marie DuboisSun Oct 04 2026Loading...

The Burkinabè army engaged in over 130 operations against JNIM in 2026, struggling to secure logistics routes in the north and east. JNIM disrupts state movements, forcing local leaders to negotiate directly with them. The army's reliance on local volunteers and Russian support has not resolved intelligence deficits, while political restrictions limit the flow of critical information. The effectiveness of military operations is measured by the ability to maintain open transport corridors.

Marie DuboisSat Oct 03 2026Loading...

Ethiopian federal forces engaged in intense fighting with Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) forces near Milazat, resulting in at least 52 civilian deaths and tens of thousands displaced. Diplomatic relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea were severed as Ethiopia expelled Eritrean diplomats and closed its embassy in Asmara. The conflict is escalating, with military pressure increasing in southern Tigray and potential implications for regional stability.

Marie DuboisSat Oct 03 2026Loading...

A mutiny involving Nigerien soldiers occurred in Niamey, resulting in gunfire and explosions around the airport and presidential area, with casualties reported. Russian forces intervened to secure key locations. The incident exposed vulnerabilities in the junta's command structure, raising concerns about potential jihadist exploitation in the region.

Marie DuboisFri Oct 02 2026Loading...

Burkinabè Armed Forces increased military operations against JNIM in 2026, facing over 130 attacks. Control over supply routes and territory remains a challenge, with the military struggling to maintain logistics. The growing partnership with Russia does not alleviate operational constraints, and civilian information sharing is limited due to fears of collaboration with the enemy.

Marie DuboisFri Oct 02 2026Loading...

Tigrayan rebels resumed offensive actions against the Ethiopian army on October 1, 2026, raising concerns of renewed warfare in northern Ethiopia. The conflict dynamics involve complex political and military factors, with the Ethiopian government struggling to manage multiple fronts. The situation remains fluid, with potential implications for regional stability.

Marie DuboisThu Oct 01 2026Loading...

Amnesty International reported that Malian armed forces and the Wagner Group killed at least 34 civilians in Mali between 2023 and 2025. The report details allegations of torture and abuses in rural areas, where military operations are aimed at combating jihadist groups like JNIM. Malian authorities have dismissed foreign investigations, asserting they undermine national sovereignty. The situation reflects a broader crisis in which military actions have led to significant civilian casualties and distrust within local communities.

Marie DuboisThu Oct 01 2026Loading...

JNIM has conducted over 3,000 incidents in the Sahel in 2026, significantly increasing violent activities in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. The April offensive resulted in the death of the Malian Defense Minister and highlighted the group's tactics of ambushes and control over logistics. JNIM's operations have forced the Malian military to defend fixed positions, indicating a shift in the operational landscape.

Marie DuboisWed Sep 30 2026Loading...

JNIM and ISSP exploit security fractures along the Nigeria-Niger border in 2026, conducting incursions into Katsina and Sokoto. The border has transformed into exploitable corridors for jihadist activities, as local authorities struggle with banditry and community conflicts. Cooperation between Nigerian and Nigerien forces has decreased since the 2023 coup, complicating efforts to address the rising threat.

Marie DuboisWed Sep 30 2026Loading...

JNIM attacked the Malian military camp in Dioura on September 10, 2026, resulting in 120-130 soldiers killed and over 100 taken hostage. Following this, JNIM conducted airstrikes on the military airport in Sévaré, claiming 33 pro-government forces killed. The situation reflects a coordinated offensive against Malian forces, highlighting vulnerabilities in their operational capabilities.

Marie DuboisTue Sep 29 2026Loading...

The Malian Armed Forces (FAMa) neutralized at least 50 combatants in an operation near Abeïbara on September 26, 2026. This action, based on precise intelligence, marks a significant military engagement against armed groups in the Kidal region. The operation's success is critical for maintaining control over strategic routes and preventing the reconstitution of combatant forces.

Marie DuboisTue Sep 29 2026Loading...