Analysis & Reports

On April 25, JNIM fighters were active in Bamako and attacked Bourem, Kati, Sévaré, Sénou, and Mopti. The U.S. administration is debating military strikes against JNIM, potentially making Mali the eighth target of Trump’s military actions. The Malian government has not excluded the possibility of U.S. intervention, despite previously expelling French and U.S. forces.

Marie DuboisSun Aug 09 2026Loading...

Nigerian President Bola Tinubu accused Sahel countries of contributing to Nigeria's security issues during a speech on July 30. In response, the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) criticized Tinubu's remarks as simplistic and emphasized their collective efforts against terrorism. Diplomatic tensions have arisen, impacting regional cooperation in counter-terrorism efforts, as both Nigeria and the AES face common threats from groups like Boko Haram.

Marie DuboisSun Aug 09 2026Loading...

On August 4, the Burkinabè army retaliated against villages near Dori after an ambush on a supply convoy to the Essakane gold mine, resulting in approximately 48 civilian deaths. The ambush, attributed to the JNIM, also caused the deaths of 10 soldiers and injuries to 15 others. Following the attack, soldiers accused local villagers of collaborating with jihadists, leading to further violence against the civilian population.

Marie DuboisSat Aug 08 2026Loading...

On August 6, ten women were killed in a mine explosion in Bertha, Ségou, while traveling to offer condolences after two men were previously killed by unidentified armed individuals. This incident highlights the shifting tactics of JNIM, which is reportedly regrouping in the Ségou and Mopti regions, as the northern areas become increasingly unstable.

Marie DuboisSat Aug 08 2026Loading...

On August 4, 2026, the Malian Armed Forces and Africa Corps conducted targeted airstrikes on illegal gold mining sites in Tessalit and Tabrishat, disrupting funding for the JNIM terrorist group. This operation is part of a larger campaign to combat the financial resources of insurgent groups in northern Mali. The strikes are intended to send a message to local communities about the ineffectiveness of JNIM's protection against aerial attacks.

Marie DuboisFri Aug 07 2026Loading...

On August 2, 2026, heavy artillery was reported in Hamdayet as hundreds of Ethiopian refugees and injured combatants crossed into Sudan to escape fighting between Ethiopian Federal Forces and TPLF elements. The TPLF claims that the Ethiopian government launched a large-scale infantry offensive, while the presence of drones indicates a significant change in military tactics. The situation remains tense as the border becomes a tactical depth amid ongoing conflict.

Marie DuboisTue Aug 04 2026Loading...

Burkinabé military authorities suspended or dissolved 1,174 civil society organizations as of August 3, 2026. This action is seen as a tactical error, weakening local intelligence crucial for countering the JNIM, which operates extensively in the region. The military's actions have led to a loss of trust among local populations, complicating efforts to gather vital information against jihadist threats.

Marie DuboisTue Aug 04 2026Loading...

AUSSOM requested a 24-month extension for its mission in Somalia during a meeting in Kampala on July 31, 2026. The defense ministers from contributing countries expressed concerns about the potential security vacuum that could be filled by Al-Shabaab if the mission were to end. The current force comprises approximately 11,146 troops, 680 police, and 85 civilians, with significant implications for regional stability and military operations.

Marie DuboisMon Aug 03 2026Loading...

The U.S. is expanding its military base in Bosaso, Somalia, following a meeting with U.S. General Claude K. Tudor Jr. This expansion aims to enhance counter-terrorism operations while the U.S. ends its support for the UN logistics office for AUSSOM. Puntland forces, supported by U.S. airstrikes and intelligence, have regained territory from ISIS. The operational costs of the UN support office are significant, raising concerns about the future of AUSSOM's logistics capabilities.

Marie DuboisMon Aug 03 2026Loading...

The Front de libération de l'Azawad (FLA) publicly displayed a video of 200 captured Malian soldiers on August 1, impacting the military narrative in Mali. This event follows accusations of the execution of soldiers after surrender during an ambush on July 18. The FLA's actions, alongside the JNIM, indicate a tactical convergence against the Malian state, complicating military operations in the Gao-Anefis-Kidal region.

Marie DuboisSun Aug 02 2026Loading...

On July 25, 2026, a long column of armored vehicles and military trucks arrived in Bamako, Mali, delivered by the Russian cargo ship Mikhail Britnev. This shipment, which included BTR armored personnel carriers, was part of Russia's ongoing support for Africa Corps amid a severe security crisis in Mali, marked by increased attacks from armed groups. The logistical route involved transport through Togo and Burkina Faso, highlighting the complexities of military supply in the region.

Marie DuboisSun Aug 02 2026Loading...

Africa Corps conducted an airstrike in Kyrnia, Mali, on June 15, 2026, resulting in the deaths of 8 civilians, including 3 children. Approximately 100 JNIM fighters were present in the village at the time of the strike. The aircraft involved was identified as a Sukhoi Su-24, indicating Russian military support. Human Rights Watch reported on the incident, highlighting the complexities of targeting in areas under jihadist influence.

Marie DuboisSat Aug 01 2026Loading...

Eight soldiers from the 24 Task Force Brigade were killed by an improvised explosive device on July 30, 2026, while escorting supplies along the Maiduguri-Dikwa route in Borno, Nigeria. This incident highlights the ongoing threat posed by ISWAP to Nigerian military logistics and operations in the region. The attack is part of a broader pattern of assaults aimed at disrupting supply lines.

Marie DuboisSat Aug 01 2026Loading...

The Africa Corps conducted an airstrike using a Sukhoi Su-24 in Kyrnia, Mali, on June 15, 2026, resulting in the deaths of eight civilians, including three children. The strike occurred during a livestock market day in a village controlled by JNIM, raising concerns about the targeting of civilians. Human Rights Watch reported on the incident, highlighting the implications of using heavy munitions in populated areas.

Marie DuboisFri Jul 31 2026Loading...

Military leaders from troop-contributing countries met in Kampala on July 29, 2023, to address the future of the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) after the U.S. announced it would cease funding after December 31, 2026. The mission, which currently relies on U.S. logistical support, faces significant challenges from al-Shabaab and uncertainties regarding its operational capacity without American assistance.

Marie DuboisFri Jul 31 2026Loading...

Malian Foreign Minister Abdoulaye Diop stated on July 24, 2023, that Mali has not received official confirmation of U.S. military action against JNIM. The conflict has evolved, with JNIM and FLA conducting coordinated operations against Malian forces. The U.S. perceives an opportunity for intervention in Mali, particularly after its withdrawal from Niger, as the situation has become increasingly complex with jihadist and separatist groups involved.

Marie DuboisThu Jul 30 2026Loading...

JNIM targets 44 mines in the Sahel, utilizing gold mining as a strategic operational base. The group controls local economies through taxation and logistical support, while conflicts related to mining occur predominantly outside the concessions. JNIM's tactics include transforming mining sites into semi-permanent bases, complicating military operations by regular forces. The situation is exacerbated by the presence of Russian forces, which do not effectively secure the area.

Marie DuboisThu Jul 30 2026Loading...

On July 18, a convoy of Malian armed forces and Russian Africa Corps was ambushed near Anefis, resulting in at least 50 Malian soldiers killed. The ambush was claimed by the FLA and JNIM groups, highlighting a tactical alliance against the Malian army. Bamako confirmed the attack and is currently conducting a counterattack, as the Gao-Anefis route becomes a critical battleground.

Marie DuboisWed Jul 29 2026Loading...

Al-Shabaab killed five police officers in an ambush at Wantey Dam, Mandera, on Tuesday around noon. An IED targeted a reinforcement team, destroying an armored vehicle but causing no further casualties. This attack underscores the ongoing security challenges in the region, as Al-Shabaab continues to exploit vulnerabilities in Kenyan security operations.

Marie DuboisWed Jul 29 2026Loading...

On July 18, a Malian army convoy was ambushed in Tabrichaat, resulting in the deaths of 50 soldiers and the capture of 24 others. The attack was claimed by the JNIM and Azawad independence fighters, highlighting vulnerabilities in Malian military operations. Following this incident, the U.S. is reportedly exploring military options against JNIM, raising concerns about the effectiveness of current military partnerships in the region.

Marie DuboisWed Jul 29 2026Loading...