Analysis & Reports

AI-assisted analysis of military-related information from public sources

80 percent of UAVs over LPR show the limits of Russian counter-drone defense 2026

80 percent of UAVs over LPR show the limits of Russian counter-drone defense 2026

Weapons & EquipmentMilitary OperationsOperational

On July 14, 2026, Russian air defense and mobile fire groups in the Luhansk People's Republic neutralized up to 80% of Ukrainian drones, including 107 heavy quadcopters and 188 aircraft drones. The report highlights the ongoing adaptation of Ukrainian operators, who are modernizing their drones to enhance resilience against electronic warfare. This situation reflects a significant shift in aerial combat dynamics, with drones becoming a central element of military operations.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovTue Jul 14 2026
Freyja vs. Iskanders in 2026 Turns Kyiv into a Testing Ground for European Missile Defense

Freyja vs. Iskanders in 2026 Turns Kyiv into a Testing Ground for European Missile Defense

Political-MilitaryWeapons & EquipmentStrategic

In July 2026, Ukraine and nine European nations announced the formation of the Integrated Anti-Ballistic Missile Coalition in Paris, aiming to enhance missile defense capabilities against Russian threats. Following this announcement, Russia launched 134 long-range drones and three guided missiles targeting Ukraine. The coalition seeks to leverage Ukraine's combat experience to develop a more cost-effective missile defense system, addressing the challenges posed by Russian ballistic missile attacks.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovTue Jul 14 2026
22 Russian Refineries Under Attack from Ukraine in 2026 Change the War for Fuel

22 Russian Refineries Under Attack from Ukraine in 2026 Change the War for Fuel

LogisticsMilitary OperationsOperational

Ukrainian forces conducted strikes on 22 Russian oil refineries and related infrastructure from January to June 2026, impacting fuel logistics. The strikes targeted facilities in Tver, Stavropol Krai, Ufa, Rostov Oblast, Yaroslavl, Ust-Luga, and Omsk. As a result, fuel shortages have emerged in 78 of 83 Russian regions, complicating military supply chains and operations.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovMon Jul 13 2026
14 ships overnight at the Kerch Strait show a new limit of Russian military logistics 2026

14 ships overnight at the Kerch Strait show a new limit of Russian military logistics 2026

LogisticsMilitary OperationsOperational

Ukrainian forces targeted 14 vessels in the Kerch Strait overnight, including 10 tankers and 4 ferries, disrupting Russian military logistics. This operation reflects a strategic effort to undermine the supply routes critical for Russian operations in the region. The attacks are part of a broader campaign against the Russian shadow fleet, which is essential for transporting oil and fuel.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovMon Jul 13 2026

178 Drones and a Strike on Syzran Show the New Cost of Russian Logistics

Military OperationsLogisticsOperational

Ukrainian forces attacked the Syzran oil refinery and maritime logistics elements on July 11-12, 2026, while Russian air defense intercepted 178 Ukrainian drones. Reports indicate that ten Russian tankers and four ferries were also struck in the Azov Sea, highlighting a significant impact on Russian logistical capabilities. This marks a strategic shift in Ukrainian operations aimed at disrupting fuel and transport systems supporting Russian military efforts.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovSun Jul 12 2026

76 Ships in the Sea of Azov Change Russian Military Logistics of 2026

LogisticsMilitary OperationsOperational

Ukrainian forces struck 76 vessels, including tankers and the Syzran oil refinery, in the Sea of Azov between July 6-11, 2026. This has significantly impacted Russian military logistics, as evidenced by a sharp decline in active AIS signals and rising fuel prices in Russia. The strikes indicate a shift in operational behavior among Russian transporters, affecting supply routes and military operations.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovSun Jul 12 2026
Iskanders and 121 Drones Over Kyiv Show the Limits of Russian Exhaustion Strategy

Iskanders and 121 Drones Over Kyiv Show the Limits of Russian Exhaustion Strategy

Military OperationsCasualties & LossesWeapons & EquipmentHybrid

Russian forces launched a combined attack on Kyiv on July 11, firing 12 ballistic missiles and 121 drones. Ukrainian air defense managed to intercept 111 drones and 2 guided missiles but could not stop the ballistic missiles. The assault resulted in 12 injuries in Kyiv and at least 10 fatalities across Ukraine, highlighting the ongoing intensity of the conflict and the challenges faced by Ukrainian defenses.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovSat Jul 11 2026
65 percent of gasoline demand shows the price of Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries in 2026

65 percent of gasoline demand shows the price of Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries in 2026

LogisticsMilitary OperationsOperational

Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries in July 2026 have reduced Russian gasoline production to 65% of domestic demand, causing significant fuel shortages. The Ukrainian Armed Forces have targeted 22 refineries, leading to operational disruptions and prompting Russian authorities to impose restrictions on fuel sales. This situation reflects a strategic shift in Ukraine's approach, aiming to systematically impact Russia's war economy.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovSat Jul 11 2026
PAC-3 Patriot and Four Areas Reveal the Deadlock of Russian Strategy 2026

PAC-3 Patriot and Four Areas Reveal the Deadlock of Russian Strategy 2026

Military OperationsCasualties & LossesPolitical-MilitaryHybrid

Russia is struggling to achieve its military objectives in Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, with Ukrainian defenses significantly slowing Russian advances. The Ukrainian military reported 32,000 Russian casualties per month, while Ukraine has successfully targeted numerous Russian positions. Diplomatic efforts continue, but Russia's demands remain high despite operational challenges.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovFri Jul 10 2026

55 Thousand Soldiers a Month for Donbas Show the Limits of the Russian War 2026

Force MovementPolitical-MilitaryOperational

The Russian Army requires 55,000-60,000 soldiers per month to sustain its offensive operations in Donbas, as reported by an anonymous general. This figure reflects the need to compensate for ongoing losses while aiming for territorial gains by the end of 2026. The Kremlin's mobilization strategy has evolved, focusing on financial incentives rather than public mobilization, indicating a significant strain on military resources and personnel quality.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovFri Jul 10 2026
July 2026 Turns Crimea into a Fuel Island After Strikes on Oil Refineries and Tankers

July 2026 Turns Crimea into a Fuel Island After Strikes on Oil Refineries and Tankers

LogisticsMilitary OperationsOperational

Ukrainian forces struck nine Russian fuel tankers in the Azov Sea and targeted oil refineries in Saratov and Nizhnekamsk from July 7-8, 2026. These actions disrupted fuel logistics, forcing Russia to rely more on vulnerable maritime transport. The strikes indicate a strategic shift in Ukraine's approach to degrading Russian military supply lines, increasing operational costs for the Russian military in Crimea and the southern theater.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovThu Jul 09 2026
5 ballistic missiles and 169 drones over Kyiv show Russia's last trump card in 2026

5 ballistic missiles and 169 drones over Kyiv show Russia's last trump card in 2026

Military OperationsWeapons & EquipmentOperational

On July 8, 2026, Russian Armed Forces launched five ballistic missiles and 169 drones at Kyiv, marking the third such strike in six days. Ukrainian Air Forces reported intercepting 139 drones, while all five ballistic missiles successfully hit four districts. The operation reflects Russia's strategy of using high-cost missile strikes to exert political pressure amid limited ground success.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovWed Jul 08 2026

Eight Tankers and 44 Substations Show a New Crisis in Russian Logistics in Crimea 2026

LogisticsMilitary OperationsOperational

Ukrainian forces targeted Russian logistics in Crimea in July 2026, striking 8 tankers and 44 electrical substations. This campaign has disrupted supply lines and raised concerns about the operational capacity of Russian forces in the region. The strikes indicate a shift in the Ukrainian strategy to target critical infrastructure supporting Russian military operations.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovWed Jul 08 2026
Strikes on Bryansk and Belgorod Reveal a New Vulnerability in the Russian Defense Industry in 2026

Strikes on Bryansk and Belgorod Reveal a New Vulnerability in the Russian Defense Industry in 2026

Military OperationsLogisticsOperational

Ukrainian forces conducted airstrikes on July 7, 2026, targeting Russian military-industrial facilities in Bryansk and Belgorod, including a chemical plant and a fuel depot. These strikes aimed to disrupt supply chains and production capabilities, impacting the Russian military's operational effectiveness. Additionally, two railway bridges in Crimea were targeted, further complicating logistics for Russian forces. The operation reflects Ukraine's strategy to undermine Russian military infrastructure.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovTue Jul 07 2026
30.42 square kilometers for June show the limit of the Russian offensive 2026

30.42 square kilometers for June show the limit of the Russian offensive 2026

Military OperationsCasualties & LossesLogisticsHybrid

Russian forces attempted to advance in the Donetsk region, gaining 30.42 square kilometers in June 2026 but suffering 39,490 casualties. The situation around Konstantinovka shows a 36.98% presence of Russian troops, yet they lack sustainable control. Ukrainian forces successfully targeted Russian logistics, complicating their operational capabilities. The ongoing conflict reflects a significant shift in the dynamics of the war, with increasing costs for territorial gains.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovTue Jul 07 2026
200 thousand rubles for the sky over the oil refinery — Gazprom gets involved in Russian air defense 2026

200 thousand rubles for the sky over the oil refinery — Gazprom gets involved in Russian air defense 2026

LogisticsMilitary OperationsOperational

Gazprom signed a contract with the Russian Ministry of Defense to establish mobile fire groups for protecting gas infrastructure in July 2026. Participants will receive 200,000 rubles per month during training. Ukrainian forces have reportedly increased successful strikes on Russian infrastructure, prompting a shift in defense strategy that now includes corporate entities. This indicates a significant adaptation in Russia's military logistics and defense approach.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovMon Jul 06 2026
4 Russian ships in Qingdao showcase the new price of the alliance with China for the Russian Navy

4 Russian ships in Qingdao showcase the new price of the alliance with China for the Russian Navy

Military OperationsPolitical-MilitaryOperational

Four Russian ships participated in joint naval exercises with the Chinese Navy in Qingdao on July 5-6, 2023. The exercise, named 'Maritime Interaction-2026', involved a variety of naval operations, including reconnaissance and air defense. This collaboration aims to strengthen political ties and operational capabilities in the Pacific region, showcasing both nations' naval presence.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovMon Jul 06 2026
Russia Fires 653 Drones and 51 Missiles as Ukraine Energy War Accelerates

Russia Fires 653 Drones and 51 Missiles as Ukraine Energy War Accelerates

Military OperationsWeapons & EquipmentLogisticsHybrid

Russia launched 653 drones and 51 missiles in a large-scale attack on Ukraine's energy infrastructure on July 5-6, 2023. Ukrainian air defenses intercepted 585 drones and 30 missiles, but significant damage occurred, including to the Fastiv railway station and the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. In response, Ukraine targeted Russian positions in Crimea, demonstrating an ongoing exchange of strikes between the two nations.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovSun Jul 05 2026
496 Drones and 74 Missiles Over Kyiv Change the Economy of the Russian Strike

496 Drones and 74 Missiles Over Kyiv Change the Economy of the Russian Strike

Military OperationsWeapons & EquipmentOperational

On July 2, 2023, Russian Armed Forces conducted a massive aerial attack on Kyiv, deploying 496 drones and 74 missiles, including a significant number of ballistic missiles. The assault lasted several hours, forcing over 50,000 residents to seek shelter in the metro. This operation reflects a strategic shift towards overwhelming Ukraine's air defense capabilities, as Russia aims to pressure Ukraine's military resources and response times.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovSun Jul 05 2026
74 missiles and 496 drones over Kyiv show the new economy of Russian coercion

74 missiles and 496 drones over Kyiv show the new economy of Russian coercion

Military OperationsWeapons & EquipmentOperational

On July 2, 2023, Russian forces launched a massive airstrike on Kyiv, deploying 74 missiles and 496 drones. Despite Ukrainian air defenses intercepting 48 missiles and 476 drones, 25 ballistic missiles and 12 drones successfully struck 33 locations. The attack lasted over 11 hours, with civilians taking shelter in the metro as a precaution against the strikes.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovSat Jul 04 2026