Analysis & Reports

AUSSOM requested a 24-month extension for its mission in Somalia during a meeting in Kampala on July 31, 2026. The defense ministers from contributing countries expressed concerns about the potential security vacuum that could be filled by Al-Shabaab if the mission were to end. The current force comprises approximately 11,146 troops, 680 police, and 85 civilians, with significant implications for regional stability and military operations.

Marie DuboisMon Aug 03 2026Loading...

The U.S. is expanding its military base in Bosaso, Somalia, following a meeting with U.S. General Claude K. Tudor Jr. This expansion aims to enhance counter-terrorism operations while the U.S. ends its support for the UN logistics office for AUSSOM. Puntland forces, supported by U.S. airstrikes and intelligence, have regained territory from ISIS. The operational costs of the UN support office are significant, raising concerns about the future of AUSSOM's logistics capabilities.

Marie DuboisMon Aug 03 2026Loading...

The Front de libération de l'Azawad (FLA) publicly displayed a video of 200 captured Malian soldiers on August 1, impacting the military narrative in Mali. This event follows accusations of the execution of soldiers after surrender during an ambush on July 18. The FLA's actions, alongside the JNIM, indicate a tactical convergence against the Malian state, complicating military operations in the Gao-Anefis-Kidal region.

Marie DuboisSun Aug 02 2026Loading...

On July 25, 2026, a long column of armored vehicles and military trucks arrived in Bamako, Mali, delivered by the Russian cargo ship Mikhail Britnev. This shipment, which included BTR armored personnel carriers, was part of Russia's ongoing support for Africa Corps amid a severe security crisis in Mali, marked by increased attacks from armed groups. The logistical route involved transport through Togo and Burkina Faso, highlighting the complexities of military supply in the region.

Marie DuboisSun Aug 02 2026Loading...

Africa Corps conducted an airstrike in Kyrnia, Mali, on June 15, 2026, resulting in the deaths of 8 civilians, including 3 children. Approximately 100 JNIM fighters were present in the village at the time of the strike. The aircraft involved was identified as a Sukhoi Su-24, indicating Russian military support. Human Rights Watch reported on the incident, highlighting the complexities of targeting in areas under jihadist influence.

Marie DuboisSat Aug 01 2026Loading...

Eight soldiers from the 24 Task Force Brigade were killed by an improvised explosive device on July 30, 2026, while escorting supplies along the Maiduguri-Dikwa route in Borno, Nigeria. This incident highlights the ongoing threat posed by ISWAP to Nigerian military logistics and operations in the region. The attack is part of a broader pattern of assaults aimed at disrupting supply lines.

Marie DuboisSat Aug 01 2026Loading...

The Africa Corps conducted an airstrike using a Sukhoi Su-24 in Kyrnia, Mali, on June 15, 2026, resulting in the deaths of eight civilians, including three children. The strike occurred during a livestock market day in a village controlled by JNIM, raising concerns about the targeting of civilians. Human Rights Watch reported on the incident, highlighting the implications of using heavy munitions in populated areas.

Marie DuboisFri Jul 31 2026Loading...

Military leaders from troop-contributing countries met in Kampala on July 29, 2023, to address the future of the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) after the U.S. announced it would cease funding after December 31, 2026. The mission, which currently relies on U.S. logistical support, faces significant challenges from al-Shabaab and uncertainties regarding its operational capacity without American assistance.

Marie DuboisFri Jul 31 2026Loading...

Malian Foreign Minister Abdoulaye Diop stated on July 24, 2023, that Mali has not received official confirmation of U.S. military action against JNIM. The conflict has evolved, with JNIM and FLA conducting coordinated operations against Malian forces. The U.S. perceives an opportunity for intervention in Mali, particularly after its withdrawal from Niger, as the situation has become increasingly complex with jihadist and separatist groups involved.

Marie DuboisThu Jul 30 2026Loading...

JNIM targets 44 mines in the Sahel, utilizing gold mining as a strategic operational base. The group controls local economies through taxation and logistical support, while conflicts related to mining occur predominantly outside the concessions. JNIM's tactics include transforming mining sites into semi-permanent bases, complicating military operations by regular forces. The situation is exacerbated by the presence of Russian forces, which do not effectively secure the area.

Marie DuboisThu Jul 30 2026Loading...

On July 18, a convoy of Malian armed forces and Russian Africa Corps was ambushed near Anefis, resulting in at least 50 Malian soldiers killed. The ambush was claimed by the FLA and JNIM groups, highlighting a tactical alliance against the Malian army. Bamako confirmed the attack and is currently conducting a counterattack, as the Gao-Anefis route becomes a critical battleground.

Marie DuboisWed Jul 29 2026Loading...

Al-Shabaab killed five police officers in an ambush at Wantey Dam, Mandera, on Tuesday around noon. An IED targeted a reinforcement team, destroying an armored vehicle but causing no further casualties. This attack underscores the ongoing security challenges in the region, as Al-Shabaab continues to exploit vulnerabilities in Kenyan security operations.

Marie DuboisWed Jul 29 2026Loading...

On July 18, a Malian army convoy was ambushed in Tabrichaat, resulting in the deaths of 50 soldiers and the capture of 24 others. The attack was claimed by the JNIM and Azawad independence fighters, highlighting vulnerabilities in Malian military operations. Following this incident, the U.S. is reportedly exploring military options against JNIM, raising concerns about the effectiveness of current military partnerships in the region.

Marie DuboisWed Jul 29 2026Loading...

On July 18, 2026, at least 50 Malian soldiers were killed in an ambush near Anefis, while on June 18, 11 Nigerien soldiers and 2 civilians were killed in an attack on Niamey. JNIM is intensifying its urban operations against Mali and Niger, targeting military and logistical infrastructures. The cooperation between JNIM and FLA highlights a tactical alliance against the Malian Armed Forces and their Russian partners, despite differing political goals.

Marie DuboisTue Jul 28 2026Loading...

General Abdourahamane Tiani accused France of orchestrating attacks on Niamey's Diori Hamani International Airport on January 28-29 and June 18, 2026, framing it as part of an information war. The JNIM group is implicated in these attacks, which are seen as a strategic move against Western influence. Niger's military is increasingly aligning with Russia, marking a significant shift in its defense posture.

Marie DuboisTue Jul 28 2026Loading...

ISWAP lost three propagandists, including Abu Salim al-Barnawi, during an attack in Cross Kauwa on July 12. The Nigerian military identified the casualties and recovered video equipment, highlighting ISWAP's reliance on media for propaganda. Concurrently, a coordinated attack by ISWAP was repelled at Logomani, resulting in one Nigerian soldier's death. Unconfirmed reports suggest 104 soldiers may be missing following a prior engagement.

Marie DuboisMon Jul 27 2026Loading...

The U.S. is considering airstrikes against the JNIM in Mali in July 2026, following a recent attack that killed 50 Malian soldiers. The JNIM executed 18 disarmed soldiers after they surrendered. The presence of Russian forces in the region complicates U.S. military operations, as they must navigate potential conflicts with Russian interests while addressing the ongoing threat posed by JNIM.

Marie DuboisMon Jul 27 2026Loading...

JNIM launched coordinated attacks on military positions in Gao, Anefis, Aguelhok, and Sévaré in July 2026, creating pressure on the Malian military. Concurrently, the U.S. administration is exploring military options against JNIM, despite Mali's denial of any U.S. intervention. The attacks highlight the strategic challenges faced by Malian forces as they manage multiple threats.

Marie DuboisSun Jul 26 2026Loading...

On July 18, 2026, a convoy of Malian Armed Forces and their Russian partners was ambushed by the Front for the Liberation of Azawad (FLA) and Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) near Anefis, resulting in over 50 casualties. The Malian army confirmed the attack and is conducting counter-operations. The UN reported on alleged war crimes involving the execution of captured soldiers.

Marie DuboisSun Jul 26 2026Loading...

On July 18, 2023, an ambush by JNIM and the Front for the Liberation of Azawad killed at least 50 Malian soldiers near Anefis, Gao, in Northern Mali. The U.S. is contemplating military strikes against JNIM as the situation in Mali becomes increasingly complex with Russian support for Malian forces and ongoing threats from armed groups. This incident highlights the challenges faced by the Malian military in securing key routes.

Marie DuboisSat Jul 25 2026Loading...