Analysis & Reports
AI-assisted analysis of military-related information from public sources
Storm Shadow for Ukraine in 2026 and Threats to British Factories Highlight the Crisis of Russian Deterrence
The UK is set to provide Ukraine with documentation for producing Storm Shadow missiles, prompting Russia to threaten British factories. This development indicates a shift in military strategy, as Russia perceives the potential for Ukraine to establish a distributed production capability. In response, Russia is likely to enhance reconnaissance and increase threats against Ukrainian industrial sites.
Dmitri VolkovTue Aug 25 2026Loading...
Four Ozon Warehouses and the Kamensky Plant Expose a New Vulnerability in the Russian Rear
Ukrainian drones targeted at least four Ozon logistics facilities and a chemical plant in Kamen, Rostov Oblast, on August 23-24, 2023. Ozon confirmed the incapacitation of its logistics hubs, impacting supply chains. The strikes are part of a broader campaign to disrupt Russian logistics, with reports of civilian casualties complicating the situation for Moscow.
Dmitri VolkovMon Aug 24 2026Loading...
300,000 New Soldiers for Donbas Show the Limits of the Russian Mobilization Model in 2026
Russia is preparing to mobilize 300,000 new soldiers for the Donbas region by the end of 2026 in response to significant personnel losses. This move aims to maintain military pressure on the front lines while avoiding public panic associated with formal mobilization. The Kremlin's strategy reflects a need for additional infantry to sustain operations, particularly in light of ongoing losses and the challenges of maintaining troop morale and effectiveness.
Dmitri VolkovMon Aug 24 2026Loading...
A Second Blow to TANEKO — 726 Intercepted Drones Did Not Save Russia's Oil Treasury
Ukrainian forces conducted drone strikes on the TANeko oil refinery in Nizhnekamsk on August 19-20, 2023, resulting in significant damage and at least 12 fatalities. Despite intercepting 726 drones, Russian air defenses were unable to prevent the attack, highlighting vulnerabilities in protecting critical infrastructure. This incident marks the second strike on TANeko within ten days, indicating a systematic targeting of Russian energy assets.
Dmitri VolkovThu Aug 20 2026Loading...
Massive Strike on Kyiv on August 20 — 44 Cruise Missiles, 168 Drones, and Silence on Ballistics
On August 20, 2023, Russian forces launched a massive combined strike on Kyiv, involving 44 cruise missiles and 168 drones. Ukrainian air defense intercepted 39 cruise missiles and 145 drones, but the attack resulted in 12 civilian deaths and around 40 injuries. The strikes hit multiple locations, including residential buildings and a children's hospital, indicating a strategy aimed at pressuring the civilian population.
Dmitri VolkovThu Aug 20 2026Loading...
NATO Conducts Surprise Exercises Near Kaliningrad — 25 Aircraft Test Russian A2/AD for Resilience
NATO conducted large-scale air exercises near Kaliningrad on August 18, 2026, involving 25 aircraft, including E-3A Sentry and AH-64E Apache. The unannounced exercises aimed to test Russian A2/AD capabilities and involved electronic warfare and reconnaissance operations. This sudden military activity reflects a shift in NATO's approach to readiness and deterrence in the region.
Dmitri VolkovWed Aug 19 2026Loading...
270 Drones After Washington Show Kremlin's Double Game Before Putin and Zelensky Meeting
On August 19, 2023, Russian Armed Forces launched 270 drones and 10 missiles targeting regions in Ukraine, including Kharkiv and Donetsk. The strikes resulted in 15 fatalities and 76 injuries, with significant infrastructure damage reported. This military action coincided with ongoing diplomatic discussions regarding a potential meeting between Presidents Putin and Zelensky, highlighting the Kremlin's dual approach to negotiations and military pressure.
Dmitri VolkovTue Aug 18 2026Loading...
Russian "Geranium-4/5" reaches 3,000 per month, while drone debris is already falling in Moldova
On August 17, 2026, debris from a Russian Geran drone fell in Moldova, causing an explosion near the village of Talmadge. Russia is producing around 3000 Geran-4 and Geran-5 drones monthly, indicating a significant increase in drone warfare capabilities. The production facility in Tatarstan is strategically located far from Ukraine, allowing for sustained drone operations. This incident underscores the growing impact of the drone war beyond Ukraine's borders.
Dmitri VolkovTue Aug 18 2026Loading...
Grain War in the Black Sea — Strikes on Izmail and Novorossiysk Reshape Export Logistics
Ukrainian forces conducted strikes on Novorossiysk, damaging four warships and grain terminals on August 12. In retaliation, Russian strikes hit Izmail and Odesa, injuring civilians and damaging infrastructure. This mutual targeting of grain ports marks a significant escalation in the conflict, impacting both military operations and logistics.
Dmitri VolkovMon Aug 17 2026Loading...
The S-400s Strike the Ground — 198 Missiles in July and the New Ersatz Ballistic RM-48U
Russian forces launched 198 ballistic and hypersonic missiles at Ukraine in July 2026, utilizing S-400 systems for ground strikes. This marks a significant increase in missile activity, as previous months saw lower numbers. The repurposing of air defense missiles for offensive operations indicates a strategic shift in Russia's military approach amid ongoing conflict.
Dmitri VolkovMon Aug 17 2026Loading...
The Book Market of Pochaiv and ArcelorMittal Show the Logic of Russian Revenge
Russian Armed Forces conducted missile strikes on civilian infrastructure in Kyiv and Kryvyi Rih on August 15-16, 2026, resulting in 2 deaths and 13 injuries. The strikes targeted the book market in Kyiv and the ArcelorMittal plant, causing significant damage. This action reflects a strategy of targeting civilian sites to undermine societal stability and retaliate against Ukrainian military actions.
Dmitri VolkovSun Aug 16 2026Loading...
More than 20 Wildberries warehouses in a month — drones are bringing the war to the economy of the Russian rear
Ukrainian drones targeted and struck over 20 logistics centers of Wildberries from July 7 to August 14, 2026, causing significant damage and casualties. The strikes incapacitated eight major hubs and resulted in the destruction of approximately 1.18 million square meters of warehouse space. At least 13 employees were killed, and the company's turnover fell by about 25% due to the loss of logistics capacity.
Dmitri VolkovSat Aug 15 2026Loading...Sheshkaris Stood Up After the Blow — 700 Thousand Barrels and a New Price of the Oil War
Ukraine conducted strikes on the Sheskharis terminal and a naval base in Novorossiysk on August 14, 2023, disrupting Russian oil exports and military logistics. The Sheskharis terminal, processing 700,000 barrels of oil daily, ceased operations, leading to fuel rationing in several Russian regions. President Zelensky emphasized the connection between sanctions and military operations, indicating a strategic approach to weaken Russia's military capabilities.
Dmitri VolkovFri Aug 14 2026Loading...
Moscow rejected the "pause" in the Black Sea — Ukrainian grain exports collapsed by 76 percent
Russia rejected Ukraine's proposal for a ceasefire regarding attacks on civilian vessels in the Black Sea on August 13-14, 2023. This rejection indicates that Russia considers the grain corridor a military tool rather than a humanitarian initiative, leading to a 76% drop in Ukrainian grain exports. The Russian Foreign Ministry emphasized that there are no grounds for temporary measures, reflecting a strategic approach to the ongoing conflict.
Dmitri VolkovFri Aug 14 2026Loading...
4 Black Sea Fleet ships damaged in Novorossiysk and the base is no longer a rear area
Ukrainian Armed Forces struck four ships of the Black Sea Fleet in Novorossiysk on August 12, causing significant damage to naval vessels and military infrastructure. The operation utilized Palianytsia drones and Neptune missiles, resulting in three fatalities and 24 injuries. This attack disrupted operations at major grain terminals, indicating a shift in the operational capacity of the Black Sea Fleet.
Dmitri VolkovWed Aug 12 2026Loading...
Putin from the cruiser Varyag promises a symmetrical capture of EU ships — the naval war extends beyond the Black Sea
On August 12, 2026, Putin announced from the cruiser Varyag that Russia would respond symmetrically to any European attempts to seize Russian vessels, signaling a potential escalation of maritime conflict beyond the Black Sea. Ukrainian drones had previously attacked tankers in Novorossiysk, prompting U.S. intervention to stabilize oil markets. The Russian Navy is actively monitoring maritime traffic in the Asia-Pacific region.
Dmitri VolkovWed Aug 12 2026Loading...
Reactive "Geraniums" and "Iskanders" Instead of a Plan — Russian Defense Industry Restructures Conveyor for Winter Campaign
Russia is restructuring its military production for the winter campaign of 2026/2027, significantly increasing the production of ballistic and hypersonic missiles, as well as drones. In July, the Russian Armed Forces launched 198 missiles, the highest number in a year, while also producing 1400 reactive strike drones. Most new missiles are being deployed directly into combat rather than stored, indicating a shift in military strategy. The production of Iskanders and RM-48U missiles has also surged, with plans to increase the share of reactive drones in the strike fleet.
Dmitri VolkovTue Aug 11 2026Loading...
"Parcel Bombs and Ballistics Against Odessa — Russia Systematically Strikes Ukraine's Grain Corridor"
Russia launched 11 ballistic missiles and over 200 drones at Odessa on the night of August 8-9, 2026, resulting in significant damage to residential areas and energy infrastructure. At least 14 individuals were injured, and the strikes are part of a systematic campaign against Ukraine's grain corridor. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that 72% of the drones were intercepted, but the attacks continue to threaten Ukraine's economic stability.
Dmitri VolkovMon Aug 10 2026Loading...S-400 near Gelendzhik destroyed by drones — five Russian air defense systems burned in one night
Ukrainian drones destroyed an S-400 air defense system in Gelendzhik on the night of August 9, along with four other Russian air defense systems and three vessels in the Black Sea. This operation marks a significant escalation in Ukraine's campaign against Russian air defenses, targeting critical military assets deep within Russian-held territory. The attacks included the destruction of radar systems essential for the operation of the S-400, indicating a strategic shift in Ukraine's military capabilities.
Dmitri VolkovSun Aug 09 2026Loading...
Three Nights of Ballistics Over Kyiv — Zero Interception Became the New Norm for Ukrainian Air Defense
Russian forces conducted missile and drone strikes against Kyiv from August 5 to 8, 2023, resulting in significant civilian casualties and no interceptions of ballistic missiles by Ukrainian air defense. The strikes included 24 ballistic missiles and 4 hypersonic missiles on August 5, leading to at least 17 deaths. Ukrainian President Zelensky highlighted the inadequacy of air defense systems in protecting the capital.
Dmitri VolkovSun Aug 09 2026Loading...
