Analysis & Reports

Kadena Air Base will receive 36 F-15EX Eagle IIs by 2028, but delays in production mean they will not close the air gap around Taiwan. The F-15EXs, equipped with advanced systems, are intended to enhance U.S. air capabilities in the region. However, the report emphasizes that the delayed arrival of these aircraft will not significantly alter the strategic balance in the first week of a potential conflict.

Marcus ChenSun Aug 23 2026Loading...

China has completed the first phase of reclamation at Antelope Reef, constructing a 10,000-foot runway to enhance military operations in the South China Sea. This development allows for increased presence of coast guard and military assets, improving logistics and operational capabilities in the region. The infrastructure supports various aircraft and strengthens China's strategic position near Vietnam.

Marcus ChenSun Aug 23 2026Loading...

Chinese maritime militia organized approximately 2,000 boats in a blockade formation northeast of Taiwan on Christmas Day last year. Researchers proposed a contractor-operated ISR fleet to enhance Taiwan's surveillance capabilities, as current systems struggle with response times. The report highlights the increasing number of Chinese-flagged vessels exhibiting state-directed behavior patterns, indicating a structured probing campaign against Taiwan's maritime defenses.

Marcus ChenFri Aug 21 2026Loading...

The U.S. President ordered a reduction of the Ulchi Freedom Shield exercise, which was supposed to run from August 17 to August 27, 2023, citing its hostility towards North Korea. This decision, made without prior notice to South Korea, signals a potential erosion of U.S. commitments to its allies in the Indo-Pacific. North Korea dismissed the reduction as an empty gesture, making no concessions in return.

Marcus ChenThu Aug 20 2026Loading...

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. indicated a possibility of joint oil and gas exploration with China in the West Philippine Sea, particularly at Recto Bank, during a luncheon with foreign correspondents on August 14, 2023. This potential deal raises significant constitutional and sovereignty concerns, as it may imply recognition of China's claims in the region. Marcos also stated that the Philippines would not allow U.S. offensive operations from its bases in a Taiwan conflict.

Marcus ChenWed Aug 19 2026Loading...

Two F-16V Block 70 fighters departed from the United States on August 17, heading to Taiwan, while 64 additional jets are delayed and may not arrive until 2028 or 2029. The Taiwanese Air Force is set to operate a total of 206 F-16Vs, but the slow production rate poses significant operational challenges. The delivery route also highlights logistical dependencies on U.S. support.

Marcus ChenWed Aug 19 2026Loading...

The People's Liberation Army conducted a drill involving drone airdrops of cash and gold, indicating preparations for potential operations in Taiwan. The exercise, described as a 'wartime financial support' drill, included New Taiwan dollars, suggesting a focus on local transactions during an occupation. The original report was deleted after it generated significant online discussion, highlighting the sensitivity of the information.

Marcus ChenTue Aug 18 2026Loading...

President Trump ordered a substantial reduction of the Ulchi Freedom Shield exercise involving 18,000 South Korean troops, scheduled from August 17 to 27, 2026. This decision, made hours before the exercise began, is perceived as a concession to North Korea, which has recently conducted ballistic missile launches. The reduction raises concerns about U.S. military commitments in the Indo-Pacific region and the implications for regional allies.

Marcus ChenTue Aug 18 2026Loading...

USS Benfold experienced a generator casualty leading to a blackout in the South China Sea on July 24, 2023, requiring external assistance for recovery. The ship was towed to Subic Bay, where repairs were completed by August 7, and it returned to service on August 8. This incident underscores the logistical challenges and lack of spare destroyers within the U.S. Pacific Fleet.

Marcus ChenMon Aug 17 2026Loading...

Elbridge Colby concluded his Southeast Asia tour in Phnom Penh on August 15, 2023, focusing on military partnerships with Cambodia and the Philippines. The U.S. Navy requested dock space at the Ream Naval Base, renovated by China, highlighting a shift in U.S. military policy. Colby emphasized the importance of allies investing in their own defense capabilities, while the U.S. lifted its arms embargo on Cambodia, allowing for increased military cooperation.

Marcus ChenMon Aug 17 2026Loading...

The U.S. Navy conducted a transit through the Taiwan Strait on January 16-17, 2026, involving USS John Finn and USNS Mary Sears, marking the only transit in 212 days. This significant reduction in transit frequency is perceived by Beijing as a shift in U.S. policy and a sign of declining American presence in the region. The PLA monitored the transit closely, launching 25 sorties in response.

Marcus ChenSun Aug 16 2026Loading...

China rehearsed a blockade of the Taiwan Strait on August 6, 2023, by issuing traffic control measures for vessels under the pretext of Typhoon Dolphin. The Guangdong Maritime Safety Administration's order was rejected by Taiwan, which asserted the strait's status as an international waterway. The U.S. State Department condemned China's actions, highlighting concerns over navigation freedoms. This rehearsal is part of a broader strategy to normalize Chinese control over the strait.

Marcus ChenSun Aug 16 2026Loading...

USS George Washington is relieving USS Abraham Lincoln in the Middle East after Lincoln's extended deployment of over 260 days. The carrier's movement from Da Nang through the Singapore Strait to the Indian Ocean highlights the U.S. Navy's ongoing operational challenges in balancing presence across multiple theaters. This shift occurs amid heightened tensions with Iran and reflects the strain on U.S. naval resources.

Marcus ChenSat Aug 15 2026Loading...

Thailand hosted the Falcon Strike-2026 exercise on August 13, 2026, featuring Chinese J-10C fighters and various military assets. This marks the fifth consecutive year of such exercises, highlighting the growing military cooperation between Thailand and China. The Royal Thai Air Force participated alongside the People's Liberation Army Air Force, focusing on joint air defense and humanitarian operations. This ongoing collaboration raises concerns for U.S. military planners regarding access to Thai airfields during potential crises.

Marcus ChenSat Aug 15 2026Loading...

The Philippines and China have publicly terminated the resupply deal for the BRP Sierra Madre at Second Thomas Shoal, escalating tensions over sovereignty and military operations. China has accused the Philippines of provocations, while the Philippines asserts its sovereign rights. Australia has expressed concern but has not committed military support. The next resupply mission will be pivotal in shaping future relations between the two nations.

Marcus ChenSat Aug 15 2026Loading...

CCTV confirmed the Y-20B's capability as an aerial refueling tanker on August 5, 2023, highlighting its operational use in the Taiwan Strait. The PLAAF has utilized the Y-20B to refuel J-16 fighters, marking a significant development in its aerial refueling capabilities. This confirmation indicates an ongoing enhancement of the PLAAF's operational flexibility and reach.

Marcus ChenFri Aug 14 2026Loading...

The US and Australia are advancing their submarine deal, with the US securing enduring access to HMAS Stirling in Western Australia as of August 4, 2023. This arrangement allows for the rotation of US submarines, supported by an expansion costing A$8 billion. The first Virginia-class submarine is projected for sale to Australia in 2032, contingent on US certification and shipyard output.

Marcus ChenThu Aug 13 2026Loading...

The Type 054A frigate Honghe from the People's Liberation Army Navy and the Indonesian frigate KRI I Gusti Ngurah Rai-332 conducted a passing exercise east of Taiwan on Wednesday morning. This marks the first time China has publicly engaged in a joint naval exercise with a foreign navy in these waters. The exercise included communications checks and formation maneuvers, emphasizing maritime diplomacy without war-fighting elements. The event is viewed as a strategic move by Beijing to assert its maritime claims in the region.

Marcus ChenThu Aug 13 2026Loading...

Japan has identified China as its greatest strategic threat and is requesting a defense budget of ¥8.9 trillion ($56.1 billion) for the next fiscal year. The 2026 Defense White Paper outlines plans to enhance defense capabilities by fiscal 2027, including the acquisition of unmanned vehicles. However, Japan's Self-Defense Forces currently lack the organization and capability to effectively respond to military threats, highlighting a significant gap in readiness.

Marcus ChenWed Aug 12 2026Loading...

China's Ministry of National Defense announced a navigation exercise involving a PLAN frigate and an Indonesian Navy frigate east of Taiwan in mid-August. The exercise, which includes communications training and replenishment at sea, marks the first naval collaboration in this area and is viewed as a means for China to assert its claims over the region. Indonesia's participation is framed as a passing exercise, reflecting its non-aligned foreign policy while engaging with both China and Japan.

Marcus ChenWed Aug 12 2026Loading...